My rankings
is solely subjective and based on nothing more than what is in my head at time
I’m writing this. I’ve followed the Mets minor league players for many years
and I feel I can recognize talent at various levels of their development. What
I have failed at is how to determine when this talent seems to diminish. It’s
amazing how many first round picks never make it in this game.
I’m old
school, so you won’t seem much SABR-discussion here, I do research and, when I
find a good quote or two, I’ll add them to my analysis, but, like I said in the
beginning of this post, most of this us subjective.
Let’s get
started
#18 – SS – Matt Reynolds – 24-years old – 6-1, 198 – R/R –
Arkansas
2nd round draft pick in
2012
2012 – Sav – 158-AB, .259/.335/.367/702, 3-HR,
13-RBI, 26-K
2013 – 2-teams – 436-AB - .225/.300/.335/635, 5-HR,
49-RBI, 80-K
2014 - 2-teams – 478-AB - .343/.405/.454/859, 6-HR,
50-RBI, 101-K
On draft
day:
Playing for
a top-notch program in one of the best college conferences in the country,
Reynolds has been seen by plenty of scouts. And while he might not be among the
top tier of college bats in this class, he has some skills that could translate
at the next level. With a balanced set-up at the plate, Reynolds has a good
approach and hits line drives. He doesn't have a ton of power, mostly to the
gaps, and is more consistent to the pull side. Without average power, Reynolds
will have to learn how to hit to all fields. He's a heads-up baserunner who
will swipe some bases even without particularly good speed. He's a very good
defender, with the potential to be above average with his arm and fielding to
go along with solid average range. Reynolds plays mostly third, but has seen
time at shortstop, and that kind of flexibility will only help his value. If
the bat doesn't progress, he could have a very good future as a utility type.
Reynolds was drafted as the 71st
pick in the draft, was ranked 147th by Baseball America and was
unranked by Keith Law
Last year in Arkansas - .343/.448/.535 - 20
doubles 7 homers, 42 RBIs, 45 runs, 37 walks (10 IBB), 27 Ks, 6 HBP, 15 SB, 5
CS, 10 errors, .946 FLD%
Baseball America - He’s a solid athlete with
a tweener profile: defensive tools suited for third and a bat that profiles
better up the middle. Reynolds lacks third-base power, with a line-drive,
gap-to-gap approach. He doesn’t have the proper load in his swing to produce
more than fringe-average power. … Reynolds may hit his way into an everyday
role if he gets the chance to play shortstop or second base as a pro, as he has
soft hands, good footwork and an above-average arm.
Jim Callis @jimcallisBA - Mets 2nd-rder Matt Reynolds'
bonus was $525k (pick value=$723,600). #Arkansas 3B w/good bat, gap power, avg
run, solid D.
It’s always hard to figure out the Mets
drafting philosophy. It’s been even harder under Sandy
Alderson.
Why would you draft someone in the 2nd
round who’s an obvious under-slot ballplayer? Sure, he hit .323 in his junior
year at Arkansas, but that was after two seasons at .243 and.203. Then, last
year he hits .343 on the Mets for two teams, but that followed a .259 in
Savannah and a miserable .225 in 2013.
Exactly what does the Mets have here?
Scouting reports target him as a utility player and he’s played 4 out of 6
seasons in the weeds.
And do you actually go into the second round trying
to save slot money or shouldn’t a pick this high be for the best player left on
the board? Want to know who the Mets left on the board? How about Alex Wood, Peter O’Brien (23-HRs
at AA), or Paco Rodriquez (3.86 – LAD).
I’m just not sure what the Mets have here in
Reynolds, but I am willing to respect my fellow writer, Tom Brennan, enough to rank him 18th in the current
group in the system (tells you a lot about just how many potential major
leaguers this team has left).
Outlook –
I would be much happier to see two seasons in
a row at a + .300 level before projecting this guy. His future on the Mets, if
he has one at all, is either at SS or as a utility player. He did play some 2B
in college.
My guess right now is he will play the entire
2015 season in Las Vegas with only a chance to be called to Queens if Wilmer Flores either flops or gets injured.
5 comments:
Good historical synopsis on Reynolds, Mack.
Although Reynolds had a fine 2014, the idea of drafting him when they did, vs. what was available at that time of the draft, is certainly puzzling.
2015, as for so many minors guys, will be a critical year for Matt. I'd like to see .333 again in his time in Vegas with more pop.
You need to spend more time watching the player actual play. You could learn more about a players makeup. He will surprise all the so called experts who probably couldn't carry his jock.
@Anon
I think #18 is a fair spot to put him.
His offensive outburst in 2014 is supposedly BABIP driven and his prior year stats support this claim.
We need to see it in back to back seasons.
This a fair ranking - his floor suguests a so-so utility player - which isn't a bad floor for a minor leaguer
His BABIP was ridiculously high last year, and he didn't have a high slugging to go with it
But I could see his BABIP being a little above average as he (supposedly) is a line drive hitter
I see a 50-75 point drop in his BA, etc next year - which still leave him with decent numbers for a MI
Anonymous
Hopefully Reynolds has a chance to prove you correct. That would be wonderful for him and the Met organization (if Alderson changes his standard operational procedures in regards to trades)
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