Mack - 2015 Prospect List - #18 - SS – Matt Reynolds


My rankings is solely subjective and based on nothing more than what is in my head at time I’m writing this. I’ve followed the Mets minor league players for many years and I feel I can recognize talent at various levels of their development. What I have failed at is how to determine when this talent seems to diminish. It’s amazing how many first round picks never make it in this game.

I’m old school, so you won’t seem much SABR-discussion here, I do research and, when I find a good quote or two, I’ll add them to my analysis, but, like I said in the beginning of this post, most of this us subjective.

Let’s get started

#18 – SS – Matt Reynolds – 24-years old – 6-1, 198 – R/R – Arkansas

            2nd round draft pick in 2012

            2012 –  Sav – 158-AB, .259/.335/.367/702, 3-HR, 13-RBI, 26-K

            2013 –  2-teams – 436-AB - .225/.300/.335/635, 5-HR, 49-RBI, 80-K

            2014 -  2-teams – 478-AB - .343/.405/.454/859, 6-HR, 50-RBI, 101-K

On draft day:

Playing for a top-notch program in one of the best college conferences in the country, Reynolds has been seen by plenty of scouts. And while he might not be among the top tier of college bats in this class, he has some skills that could translate at the next level. With a balanced set-up at the plate, Reynolds has a good approach and hits line drives. He doesn't have a ton of power, mostly to the gaps, and is more consistent to the pull side. Without average power, Reynolds will have to learn how to hit to all fields. He's a heads-up baserunner who will swipe some bases even without particularly good speed. He's a very good defender, with the potential to be above average with his arm and fielding to go along with solid average range. Reynolds plays mostly third, but has seen time at shortstop, and that kind of flexibility will only help his value. If the bat doesn't progress, he could have a very good future as a utility type.

Reynolds was drafted as the 71st pick in the draft, was ranked 147th by Baseball America and was unranked by Keith Law

Last year in Arkansas - .343/.448/.535 - 20 doubles 7 homers, 42 RBIs, 45 runs, 37 walks (10 IBB), 27 Ks, 6 HBP, 15 SB, 5 CS, 10 errors, .946 FLD%

Baseball America - He’s a solid athlete with a tweener profile: defensive tools suited for third and a bat that profiles better up the middle. Reynolds lacks third-base power, with a line-drive, gap-to-gap approach. He doesn’t have the proper load in his swing to produce more than fringe-average power. … Reynolds may hit his way into an everyday role if he gets the chance to play shortstop or second base as a pro, as he has soft hands, good footwork and an above-average arm.

Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisBA - Mets 2nd-rder Matt Reynolds' bonus was $525k (pick value=$723,600). #Arkansas 3B w/good bat, gap power, avg run, solid D.

It’s always hard to figure out the Mets drafting philosophy. It’s been even harder under Sandy Alderson.

Why would you draft someone in the 2nd round who’s an obvious under-slot ballplayer? Sure, he hit .323 in his junior year at Arkansas, but that was after two seasons at .243 and.203. Then, last year he hits .343 on the Mets for two teams, but that followed a .259 in Savannah and a miserable .225 in 2013.

Exactly what does the Mets have here? Scouting reports target him as a utility player and he’s played 4 out of 6 seasons in the weeds.

And do you actually go into the second round trying to save slot money or shouldn’t a pick this high be for the best player left on the board? Want to know who the Mets left on the board? How about Alex Wood, Peter O’Brien (23-HRs at AA), or Paco Rodriquez (3.86 – LAD).

I’m just not sure what the Mets have here in Reynolds, but I am willing to respect my fellow writer, Tom Brennan, enough to rank him 18th in the current group in the system (tells you a lot about just how many potential major leaguers this team has left).

Outlook –

I would be much happier to see two seasons in a row at a + .300 level before projecting this guy. His future on the Mets, if he has one at all, is either at SS or as a utility player. He did play some 2B in college.

My guess right now is he will play the entire 2015 season in Las Vegas with only a chance to be called to Queens if Wilmer Flores either flops or gets injured.


Thomas Brennan said...

Good historical synopsis on Reynolds, Mack.

Although Reynolds had a fine 2014, the idea of drafting him when they did, vs. what was available at that time of the draft, is certainly puzzling.

2015, as for so many minors guys, will be a critical year for Matt. I'd like to see .333 again in his time in Vegas with more pop.

Anonymous said...

You need to spend more time watching the player actual play. You could learn more about a players makeup. He will surprise all the so called experts who probably couldn't carry his jock.

Anonymous said...


I think #18 is a fair spot to put him.

His offensive outburst in 2014 is supposedly BABIP driven and his prior year stats support this claim.

We need to see it in back to back seasons.

Lew Rhodes said...

This a fair ranking - his floor suguests a so-so utility player - which isn't a bad floor for a minor leaguer

His BABIP was ridiculously high last year, and he didn't have a high slugging to go with it

But I could see his BABIP being a little above average as he (supposedly) is a line drive hitter

I see a 50-75 point drop in his BA, etc next year - which still leave him with decent numbers for a MI

bob gregory said...

Hopefully Reynolds has a chance to prove you correct. That would be wonderful for him and the Met organization (if Alderson changes his standard operational procedures in regards to trades)

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