4/4/15

Mack - Projected NL East Standing

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TeamWinsLossesDivisionWild CardWorld Series
Nationals946886%8%17%
Mets81817%23%1%
Marlins81816%20%1%
Braves73891%3%0%
Phillies66960%0%0%

New York Mets
The Mets remind me an awful lot of the Indians. Neither team has a true star hitter, though both have well above average position players once you factor in their defensive value, and their line-ups are deep enough to make up for the fact that they are a little underwhelming in the middle. Both teams are betting heavily on young pitching, with an ace at the top of the rotation followed by a lot of interesting kids with upside.

But the Indians have actually committed to those kids out of the gate, while the Mets are still considering giving the ball to Dillon Gee on a regular basis, with Bartolo Colon mixed in as a stark contrast to the pups around him, so while their organization contains as many interesting young arms as Cleveland’s, they’re a bit less likely to get the same level of 2015 production. Given the fact that Cleveland doesn’t have a team projected to be 13 wins better than them in their own division, the Mets more conservative approach is probably more prudent than trading development for the short-term gain, but it might cost them some portion of their chance to sneak into a Wild Card spot.

If the Mets want to make a playoff run this year, their best bet is to start the season strong, but with Gee or Colon struggling along the way, putting pressure on the organization to put Noah Syndergaard in the rotation. If he gets 150 innings and pitches anywhere near his projections, the Mets aren’t that far off the Padres, Cubs, and Giants in the Wild Card race. But he doesn’t get 150 innings if they leave him down until July, and I’m not sure the rest of the team is good enough to make a Wild Card run with their second best projected starter in the minors for half the season.

It’s an oversimplification to say that New York’s season will be decided by when Syndergaard replaces Dillon Gee, but the Mets only a few wins off projected totals of the teams in Wild Card position, and there aren’t many more obvious upgrades than swapping out a bad starter for a good one. The team still carries all of the same risks that any team building around young pitching does, so this could fall apart, but there is a path to a postseason game in Queens this year; it just relies on a lot of young arms all pitching very well for nearly the entire season.

Mack - Another 'sort of' positive piece about the Mets.

If this writer is correct, than the Mets should get on with a full commitment to their young pitchers and insert both Noah Syndergaard and Rafael Montero into the rotation along side of Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom

Me?

For now, after the results of what has been done in spring training by both Jon Niese and Dillon Gee, I leave the rotation alone and play out April. Then, I would sit back and reassess the rotation, especially if I was to move forward with Bartolo Colon in it.

But, that's just me...

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/division-preview-nl-east/

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