12/26/16

Mack Ade – 2017 Resolutions and Predictions

9 comments


Good morning.



First, some resolutions -

-         I’m going to try and stop fighting with Stubby on the site… wait, didn’t I ask him to leave? Oh, well.

-         I will continue to do everything I can to add quality writers to the site.

-         I will try not to retire for the third time.

-         I will do what I can to get Kaplan and Metsiac to agree on anything,

-         I will stop saying that Dominic Smith can’t hit home runs.


Now, some early thoughts (I will update these thoughts in the spring on a post just before opening day) on the 2017 season –

-         I believe that Noah Syndergaard will become one of the top three pitchers in the league. He’s that special.

-         I believe we will once again get a sub-par year from Matt Harvey, be it because he injures his pitching arm/shoulder again, or he just doesn’t have the zip on the ball anymore after having his latest surgery.

-         I believe that Jacob deGrom will become the 1-2 ace, just behind Syndergaard.

-   I also think that Steven Matz will continue his maturation as a successful major leave starter

-         I also believe that 2017 will be the year that the Mets do everything they can to sign (with a home town discount) a long term deal with both Syndergaard and deGrom.

-         If he isn’t traded, I believe the next ‘come out of nowhere’ ace on this team will be Robert Gsellman. I expect him to blossom, in Queens, this next season as the SP5.

-         The rising of Gsellman will, IMO, be timed perfectly with the complete burn out of Zack Wheeler. Sadly, I expect him to retire before the end of the year when he has to go under the knife for the third time.

-         I believe that the biggest pitching failure in 2017 will be the collective meh produced by the Mets pen, leaving open for the return of a 28-year old Jenrry Mejia.

-    I really believed that catcher Travis d'Arnaud was going to be the prime
     cut chip of the R.A. Dickey trade, but now I'm not even sure if he has a long term future on this team. I look for 2017 to be another dpwn year for him, especially defensively, and we probably will end the year praying for September 2018 when Tomas Nido walks into the clubhouse.

-         I believe that the Mets infield will continue to produce the most games lost due to injuries, including some games in which the entire opening day infield (Duda, Walker, Cabrera, Wright) will be down at the same time.

-         At the same time, I believe the Mets outfield (whatever that will eventually be) will suffer the least injuries and will lead the team in all hitting categories, especially ones involving power.

-         I look for outfielder Michael Conforto to break out this season and become the kind of hitter he was when he was drafted out of Oregon State. Experts had him ranked as the top hitter in the 2014 draft and I believe we will begin to see this kind of return in 2017. The Mets moved Conforto too quickly and we all need to remember that he only has less than two seasons so far in Queens. He will quietly settle in for years as the Mets’ RFer.

-         I expect the Mets other corner outfielder, Yoenes Cespedes, to have another one of his quality years. I do; however, don’t see him hitting over .300 or hitting over 35 home runs.

-         Right now, I believe the Mets only have three ‘A’ rated (I don’t consider Lugo or Gsellman prospects because of the time they spent in Queens last year) prospects in the pipeline… IF Amed Rosario, OF Wuilmer Beccera, and 1B Dominic Smith… but I believe that will change this year with the emergence/upgrading of P Justin Dunn, C Tomas Nido, OF Desmond Lindsay, and 3B David Thompson. If this is true, it will give the Mets a much easier job in the future to structure deals for established talent. There is an outside chance that the end of the year Top 100 prospect lists have 6-7 players in it.

9 comments:

Thomas Brennan said...

I thought I would see Danny Muno's return in your list. Mets love that kind of low cost, low production value proposition.

I love Stubby and want him back....Stubby, please come home.

On Wheeler, I can picture as he starts to have illusions just as the anesthesia is kicking in, he swears he sees Crocodile Dundee standing over him saying, "Now THAT'S a knife." Kidding aside, I hope he never faces the knife again and makes the 2017 All Star team.

Cespedes will have read my column from last week, will play 155 games (25 more than last year) and break the team HR re Ord by hitting 45.

Everything else is spot on, Mack :) - we just want our 6 or 7 top 100 prospects all to be in the Top 10, led by AA batting champ Phil Evans, no doubt.

Peter Hyatt said...

Some Predictions for 2017


1. Noah to be one of the top pitchers in the league.
2. A solid year from DeGrom and Glsellman
3. Yoenis gives us 27 HRs, 80 ribbies and .280 average. Some loss of time due to injury.
4. Conforto: 23 HR 90 Ribbies, and .293 average with 40 doubles. Yep.
5. Mets outfield to do well with Curtis limited but tutoring and if not traded, Jay Bruce 25 HR with .247 as Mets move him to first base and he begins to become steadier at the plate, with nothing special at 1B.
6. David Wright to retire
7. Amed Rosario called up late July.
8. Dom Smith still does not hit HRs in Vegas, increasing concern about power.
9. Matt Harvey

here is the interesting one.

Harvey's injury prone was due to power arm and some really bad off field habits. He lost weight and appeared to be coming back to form when the new injury arose. Some say he really matured during his down time and dropped the Dark Knight nonsense.

I think he may dumb Scott Boros and dreams of Yankee millions and surprise us all with command, even though his velocity is down. He eats, sleeps and drinks baseball rather than beer, nightlife and baseball.
He wins 15 games with 3.07 ERA in comeback year.

10. Travis D He comes out scorching, but trips on the way to the dugout on a flipped bat, and tears tiny muscles within his knee and is out. The Mets say "no mas."

11. Kevin Plawecki gets the full time nod, does a good defensive job, but also contributes, batting .268 with 12 HRs, 22 doubles and 65 RBIs.

12. Jose Reyes breaks up Kim and Kanye marriage, keeps himself on Page Six, and his career rebirth ends with a whimper. Mets fans prefer Wilmer at 3B.

13. Juan Legaras breaks his wrist colliding with a wall in a marvelous catch...Mets OF survives the injury with Nimmo, Conforto and a more rested and always positive Curtis Granderson.

I see the Mets making the Wild Card by the hair of their chinny chin chin, but cannot complete with Nats and Cubs...

It will be a fun year.

Mack Ade said...

Peter -

Ever think of writing for Mack's Mets occasionally?

Reese Kaplan said...

Thomas Szapucki is not an A prospect?

Adam Smith said...

Hi Mack. Hoping you can keep to that "not retiring again" resolution.

My predictions:

1. Fully agree, Syndergaard goes all Cy Young Finalist on us on '17.
2. Steven Matz has a breakout year as one of the league's 5 (maybe 3) best lefty starters.
3. Conforto adjusts and has a very solid offensive season.
4. Hansel Robles takes a major step forward.
5. Harvey shows flashes, but is inconsistent and mostly just pretty good, not nearly great.
6. Granderson struggles to stay above the Mendoza line for much of the season.
7. Flores hits .280 with 20 HR in fewer than 400 AB's.
8. Duda stays healthy and is solid to very good.
9. By mid-August, the talk of getting both DW and TdA back "for the stretch run" is starting to look like wishful thinking (Nido having great year in AA... Sandy pooh-poohs bringing him up. Catcher a patchwork and mostly ineffective)
10. Terry Collins makes it through his age 68 season in fine shape, but his in game decisions and press conferences Send me onto the concussion protocol from repeatedly banging by head against my coffee table.
11. If all goes well, we make the playoffs and inevitably our season comes down to a moment that will answer the question... Is it just SSS, or does Familia really choke in the postseason?

Thomas Brennan said...

Fun comments!

TP said...

Mack,
No worries about the retirements, you're still way behind Brett Favre and half the former boxing champs.
I'm with you on Noah and Gsellman Will be with you on Jake so long as he is healthy.
Probably with you on Harvey.
With yu on Conforto...his swing is too sweet and despite his tough 2016 his head ad pedigree with allow him to succeed.
Matz and TDA will always worry me until I see a full complete season of quality ball from each.
Wheels scares me too but perhaps the pen is where he will find a home.
I think the system is in sneaky good shape. Those top 100 lists are nice, but mostly for internet fodder. If I am not mistaken, the Met system has recently produced numerous quality big leaguers that were never on that list, all-stars, 30 HR guys, batting champs, etc. I like the depth and with that depth the likelihood that some future gems will emerge.

Peter Hyatt said...

Mack,

I'd be glad to.

by the way, given your age (and mine!), do you have any recollection of Willie May's first game as a New York Met?

I was 13 years old, but my dad was already in his mid 50's, so his connection in New York went back when Mays played in NY.

I grew up with a deep, boyhood admiration of Mays and that first game was nothing short of magical for a boy.

Peter

Mack Ade said...

Peter -

I was a Mets fan from the beginning. Even had a walk-on tryout with them (do you remember when Stengel announced that?) before the 1962 season. I was a graduating junior in high school and didn't tell them I was 15 years old.

I was a big Gil Hodges fan from the days I would go to Ebbets Field after my middle school would get out in Brooklyn and we'd sneak into the part for the remaining innings.

If I remember correctly, Mays hit a home run in his first Mets game against his old team, the Giants. I don't remember if it was a home game though.

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