12/6/16

Mack Ade – Bryce Harper, Transparency

15 comments


Good morning.


Is it too early to discuss the possibility of the Mets signing OF Bryce Harper to a long-term contract in the $400mil range, beginning in the 2019 season?

Yeah, I know $40mil a year for 10 years seems kind of crazy, but someday some baseball player is going to be paid this much and it might as well be the best hitter in the game (sorry Mike Trout fans… he is).

Can you imagine the benefits of having Harper in the same outfield for two years with Yoenes Cespedes?

My guess is that the final two years of the David Wright contract will be off the books by then. I share with Wright his neck problems and, trust me, you can’t play a 162-game schedule without future complications. That would save the Mets $15mil in 2019 and $12mil in 2020, which could help offset the cost of the first two years of a Harper contract.

Additionally, Juan Lagares’ 2019 $9mil contract could be eliminated via a trade and the third outfield starter slot could be either Michael Conforto (arbitration-1) or Desmond Lindsay (minimum).

Folks, you all know that Mack’s Mets started, and has the reputation as, a premier Mets minor league blog, but I have always been a proponent of filling your 25-man squad with players (especially your starters) that already have success at the major-league level. Baseball is like the pro basketball adage, where you need three great players to make a championship team. In the case of baseball, it takes three great bats, two great starters, and a killer closer. The Mets have the current pitching talent to add to this equation, but they fall two bats short of fulfilling this scenario beginning in 2018.

Maybe Conforto develops into a great bat. Maybe Amed Rosario becomes the all-star shortstop they have been looking for since Jose Reyes exited the team years ago for free agency. Maybe… well, Harper isn’t a maybe. He’s a killer bat and the fans will take to him as quick as they hate him now.

Will something happen during this Hot Stove season that could signal a move someday in this direction? No, baseball doesn’t work that way. If it did, I would trade both Curtis Granderson and Jay Bruce for top prospects and sign someone like Carlos Gomez to join Harper and Cespedes in the starting outfield.

But what the hell do I know?



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15 comments:

Reese Kaplan said...

Hmmn...unload two bloated contracts for all-or-nothing types and build for the future. Where did I hear that idea before...? :)

Mack Ade said...

Reese -

We all serve the pleasure of the Kaplan here... :)

Thomas Brennan said...

Trout career: .306/.405/.557

Harper career: .279/.382/.501

Those are sizable variances favoring Trout.

Si I am not sure how that makes Harper better than Trout. And while Harper had a .330/.460/.649 super year in 2015, he plummeted to a slightly better than Granderson-like .243/.373/.441 in 2016.

I don't buy Harper is better until he produces another 2015 in 2017.

If he rebounds, I'd be in favor of the Mets signing him for big bucks for 2018 and beyond.

Eddie Corona said...

if we able to spend 40 mil on a player wouldn't that player need to be the Perfect player?
A La Mike trout? AROD (the one who went to Texas) Griffey (Seattle version)...
Great defense, Great hitter, Marketable, BELOVED...

Harper is excellent But i don't know if he is that Guy... (for me I rather have Machado But that's been my Dude since he made to the show)

Mack Ade said...

Let's sign both and flap our ears and fly to the moon!!!

Eddie Corona said...

Mack
that would be AMAZIN!!!

Thomas Brennan said...

Funny thing is the draft pick, as I recall, that we gave up when we got K Rod could have been used to pick - MIKE TROUT. The dangers of giving up a first round pick.

Mack Ade said...

Tom -

But there never was any proof that Trout was on our radar.

It is easy to look up the draft picks on Baseball Cube and play the game 'gee, if we di not pick X, then we could have picked X'. It just doe not work that way.

Eddie Corona said...

Agreed Mack However the pick was available (trout) when we would have chosen...
I say give us the chance to choose the player... it the job of the GM to get the right guy...

Thomas Brennan said...

Boy, Mack, if Trout wasn't on our radar, someone must have been asleep on the job. But yes, it is a "what if" scenario.

Amazing, though, that the Mets won just 70 games in 2009. K Rod is the type of guy you get if you think you will truly contend for the playoffs. I imagine it could have been that they wanted a name closer on the team for the first Citifield season.

Mack Ade said...

Eddie/Tom -

I got pretty close with a couple of Omar's guys that worked the draft room back in those days and, though I was sworn to secrecy about what I found out, I am sure I have past any time anyone would hold it against me talking about this.

According to them, the Mets work under the same system used by most teams. They create their own mathematical equation that determines the top 300 players eligible for the draft, regardless of position. They really do not put any special emphasis on positions, though many of the top players on this list tend to be 'middle fielders' (C, P, SS, 2B, CF) which consistently represent the most talented players.

Back in those days, the Mets did not vary from this ranking. If there pick came up and 15 names were gone, the Mets would pick number 16. Period. The critics would tell you that a bad draft was the makings of bad rankings.

After the 300 players on the list ran out, the Mets would fill in the rest of the draft with position picks designed to fill the rosters.

As for that draft, I have no idea who on the top of the Mets list that year.

Eddie Corona said...

I would assume most BIG BOARDS are that way...
However I don't believe that would be 100% the case because I cannot believe they would have chosen Eddie Kuntz as their top player available available on that draft (when many wrote he was chosen because he was going to take slot)

No one outside of that room would know if they would have taken Trout... All i say is IF we are not a championship caliber team then Lose as many games as possible... I never want to be 500. that is a losers spot... I want as high a Pick as possible and have the FO pick the best player available...If you Miss more than you hit you get fired... This is not difference than selling stocks ...that's the job...

The red sox seem to hit more than most... tell me why? Theo has left and they still are amazing pulling prospect after prospect to the show and available to trade...
Do they have the best scouts? then hire them... Do they do something different then hire the asst GM...
But something is wrong with what we do...your draft analysis proves that... And we are talking over 3 GM's

Mack Ade said...

Eddie -

You are right about a few things.

The Kunz pick had to have something special built into it. The same goes for Nimmo. That was one scout (the head guy) getting special permission to shoot the moon on that pick.

And you are right about the Red Sox.I do think it comes down to superior scouting and the flexibility they are allowed.

Robb said...

rather have muchado or arenado (the year after) then harper.

Thomas Brennan said...

Good points, Eddie. They've picked to many clean-cut, earnest looking kids like Nimmo and Cecchini. Rather than athletes who could hit for power and turn into all-around stars.

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