12/7/16

Reese Kaplan -- The Third LH Slugging Trade Chip

11 comments

Very early in the off-season there was speculation that the Mets might non-tender 1st baseman Lucas Duda rather than pay him the perhaps $7 million or so he will be awarded in arbitration.  Some people embraced this idea but no one seemed to indicate how they would fill this void short of signing a much more expensive option such as Edwin Encarnacion or converting Matt Holliday to the position.

Since then the Mets have gone ahead and locked up Yoenis Cespedes for the next four years which assures them of some right handed power.  On the left side, however, they’re somewhat overloaded with Duda, Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce and Michael Conforto.  Some have suggested that Conforto learn 1st base in order to get him into the lineup on a regular basis,, but if Duda is here then that’s not a solution either.

Early indications are that there is interest in both Curtis Granderson and Jay Bruce as the Mets begin to gauge other teams’ interest in their available chips.  What I’m wondering is whether or not they should throw Lucas Duda’s name into the bowl as well?

Large market teams wouldn’t think twice about paying the $15 million salary of Curtis Granderson or the $13 million salary of Jay Bruce.  For what they deliver by today’s baseball standards they are actually somewhat underpaid.

Small market teams, however, may say those numbers are too rich for their blood.  However, a $7 million investment in a guy capable of 30 HRs may be more to their liking.  That expands your base of potential trade partners beyond the well healed franchises and includes others not normally in the big dollar arena such as Minnesota, Milwaukee, Tampa Bay, San Diego and others.

Why would the Mets consider it?  Well, in Duda, Bruce and Granderson you have three virtual clones of one another – high power, high strikeout, all-or-nothing types of left handed hitters.  All are streaky and hurt the team badly when slumping, yet can carry a team when hot.  Granderson has an edge in that he draws a lot of walks and still has some speed and defense in his game.  Duda has made himself into a passable 1st baseman, but no one will confuse him with Keith Hernandez.  Bruce has a better arm than Granderson and is a better outfielder than Duda (though that bar is set at limbo championship height).

Given that surplus it behooves Sandy Alderson to look at all possibilities, not just the obvious ones.  Duda may be more appealing due to his salary and then if you strike a deal you could move Bruce to 1st base or convert Conforto or platoon him with Wilmer Flores.  I’m still on board with trading two lefty sluggers but think they should add Duda into the mix of options.  Next year Bruce, Granderson and Walker all come off the books.  Dom Smith is knocking at the door for promotion in 2018.  You’d still maintain payroll flexibility if you feel Smith is for real.  In fact, if they kept Conforto and Smith as part of the near future then you’ll recoup quite a bit of money to help pay for the starting rotation.

Looking over Duda’s contract he’s eligible to become a free agent in 2018.  That timing should coincide with the arrival of Dom Smith.  If you think they would likely not look to keep Duda beyond this year (and not extend a QO), isn’t it better to trade him a year too soon than lose him for nothing?

11 comments:

Thomas Brennan said...

I thought the same thing, Reese. What we don't know is Duda's back health. How did his back stress fracture? Is he 100% again, and this is a past issue for him, or is it a real future health concern? If they felt it was the latter, why not trade Duda? If he is fully healthy, I'd be inclined to keep him and see what he can give us in 2017. I would certainly platoon him.

But they have to move at least one lefty.

Frank Anon said...

One thing you shorted Duda on and that is that he takes walks so his OBP is usually pretty decent, around the .350 range which is also nice to have

Mack Ade said...

Reese -

Good morning.

I find it hard to believe that Duda could bring a decent return in a pre-season trade, what with him coming off both a bad season and injuries.

Possibly an all-star bait, but, IMO, not now.

Thomas Brennan said...

Duda in his last pre-free agency year...does he somehow summon a big year that drives up his value? If so, we'd benefit to keep him production-wise in 2017.

Eddie Corona said...

Reese / Tom
why would there be any concern over Duda's back if he actually played in September?
I wish Sandy would be bold...
trade Grandy, Bruce and Duda... (thats crazy...) well I would make this line up more functional... Like trade for a Cain From KC or JD Martinez or McCutchen...

Reese Kaplan said...

Or we keep him and he performs poorly due to back pain and altering his mechanics. It could go either way.

Thomas Brennan said...

Backs, as we've seen from guys like Wright and Don Mattingly, can be tricky things, and like Reese says, if the back allows him to play but is a lingering issue, he might not ever be the same. Hopefully Duda is fine in 2017 and up for a big bounceback year...or say hello to 1B Wilmer Flores.

bob gregory said...

Yikes.....backs.

Wright
Walker
Duda

Concussions
D'Arnaud

Legs
Cabrera
Reyes

Arms
Matz
Wheeler
DeGrom
Syndergaard
Harvey

Sooo many physical obstacles

bill metsiac said...

If Duda is healthy (and he's already working out at the special fitness camp in St. Lucey, so it seems he is), he's a super BARGAIN at around 7 mil.

And I get tired of people saying what a Mets player will be "awarded" in Arbi. Remember a few weeks ago when people were talking about Rene Rivera being "awarded" $2.5 mil? How'd that estimate work out?

I've been watching this team since 1962, and I don't remember the last time one of our players even got to a hearing.Duda will sign a contract at a very reasonable price.

Why would people even THINK about dealing away a potential 30+ HR guy at his salary and trying to replace him with someone who has never played the position? Unless his back flares up or he suffers another injury, he's our 1Bman for 2017.

Mack Ade said...

Bill -

Re: "Unless his back flares up or he suffers another injury, he's our 1Bman for 2017"

I agree. Duda will be the opening day first baseman.

But this is probably his last shot before Dominic Smith gets thrown the mit.

He should have signed the contract.

Adam Smith said...

I think that if Duda's healthy, he's going to have a big year. I wouldn't think of trading him now for pennies on the potential dollar. Not with that contract. Have to trade Briluce for whatever you can get. Guessing it'll be the Rangers for BP help.

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