12/1/16

Tom Brennan - Who is Ahead of Baseball's #11 Prospect Amed Rosario?

11 comments


Tom Brennan - Who is Ahead of Baseball's #11 Prospect Amed Rosario?

The Mets have the 11th best MLB prospect, Amed Rosario, in MLB's Top 100 prospect rankings. Nice, rarified air, way up there.  To put it in perspective, Dominic Smith is only #54.  

Brandon Nimmo?  Gavin Cecchini?  Neither former first rounder, despite their strong 2016 seasons, cracked baseball's Top 100.   Very telling about them, and very tough to crack the Top 100.

One way to consider how good MLB thinks Rosario is, is to look at the 10 guys before him.  

(Spoiler Alert: They're GOOD!)  Let's do it...

# 1 - Yoan Moncada, Red Sox IF: we all know Cespedes the Cuban...the 21 year old super-swift and high-powered Moncada is another Cuban who the Red Sox paid huge bucks to sign...and who will probably be a future superstar.

A guy I wished the Mets had splurged for, and looks like he came out of Central Casting.  He has put up .287/.395/.480 #'s with 94 of 109 steals in 187 games in A and AA in 2015 and 2016.  Had a brief cup of coffee with the Red Sox in 2016, when he struck out in 12 of 20 plate appearances, so he needs a bit more time in the minors.

# 2 - J. P. Crawford, Philly SS: the 21 year old cousin of Carl Crawford was #16 in the 2013 draft, picked after Dom Smith.  Projects as a superb defense, reasonably strong offense, swift guy.  In the Mets' division, how good will he be?  Consider how good Swanson (# 4 below) looks.

# 3 - Lucas Giolito, Nats RHSP: picked AFTER Gavin Cecchini in 2012, Giolito slipped in that draft due to elbow issues, but the Nats gambled correctly here.  Thing Noah Syndergaard, and you've gotten Giolito...but not yet. To be fair and balanced, he scuffled in 21 innings with the Nats in 2016 as a late season call up.

# 4 - Dansby Swanson, Braves SS: the 22 year old 1st pick in the 1st round in 2015, stolen by the Braves in a trade with Arizona, flew through the minors and was a superb .302/.361/.442 with the Braves in late 2016 in nearly 130 at bats.  Only 20 errors in 162 pro games at SS, so he likely will be an anchor for the Braves for years to come. 

# 5 - Andrew Benintendi, Red Sox OF: 5th ranked, and how good that is can be understood by the fact that heralded Yanks prospect Clint Frazier sits 10 slots lower at # 15.  The 5'10, 170 lefty hitter, the 7th overall pick in the 2015 draft, tore through the minors, and was .295/.359/.476 in about 120 plate appearances with the Red Sox in late 2016.

# 6 - Brendan Rodgers, Rockies SS:  a 20 year old first rounder in 2015 (# 3 overall), he has gone .279/.341/.465 in 147 games through mid A ball.  my guess is he will explode in 2017.  The Rockies know how to do shortstops.

# 7 - Alex Reyes, Cards RHSP: this 22 year old, 6'3", signed as a non-drafted free agent in 2012 (!) and struck out 244 in 166 innings in 2015 and 2016 in the minors, then in 46 MLB innings, went 4-1, 1.57 with 52 Ks in 46 IP.  Looks scary to me.  Another smart Cards move.

# 8 - Tyler Glasnow, Pirates RHSP: this 23 year old, 6'8" dude (a nice 5th round pick in 2011) has been spectacular in the minors, except for his control, and was OK in 23 innings with the Bucs in late 2016.  Scary if he can get his walk rate down (his walks and HBP rate has been 4.8 per 9 IP).

# 9 - Austin Meadows, Pirates OF: a 21 year old first rounder (9th overall, just before Dom Smith) in 2013, the toolsy lefty has put up .300/.368/.480 in 307 pro games.  Appears to need another year of seasoning.  As I recall, we came from behind to win the last game of 2013 and as a result slipped from # 7 to # 10, so sometimes it pays to lose :)

# 10 - Victor Robles, Nats OF: just 19, .306/.401/.458 with 83 steals in just 218 games.  He was signed for just $225,000 in 2013 - he may need another year or two, but this youngest guy in the Top Ten looks like a force to be reckoned with in the future for our division nemesis.

Man, those top 10 dudes have tons of talent.  It makes you appreciate how good Amed Rosario, who turned 21 just before Thanksgiving, is likely to be for the Mets by being listed at # 11.  One of the youngest guys in the top 11, he was a super .324/.374/.459 in 120 games in A and AA in 2016, and is a slick fielder with good speed (19 of 27 steals in 2016, plus 13 triples).  My guess is he will be a Top 5 guy with some major league experience in 2017, ready to be the Mets' everyday SS in 2018.






11 comments:

Mack Ade said...

I remember the day that Giolito was brought to the Mets complex in Queens for a private workout. Everybody expected the Mets to call his name out in the first round regardless of any injuries he suffered from in school.

Sadly, at least for me, the Mets picked SS Gavin Cecchini with their 12th overall pick.

Lucas fell to the 16th overall pick to the Nats

Thomas Brennan said...

Almost undoubtedly a big mistake, Mack. I recall that my brother went nuts when they passed on Giolito. I think they had gotten burnt on a number of prospects like Reese havens flaming out and guys with big contracts like Santana and bay crashing and burning and went with the "safe" choice. First safe, now sorry.

Reese Kaplan said...

That makes the Nimmo selection that much more curious as he had so little baseball under his belt.

Thomas Brennan said...

My brother hated the Nimmo pick, too. 2016 lessened that, but he still feels he will be no more than a 4th or 5th outfielder. Nimmo sees, like we all do. what got Cespedes the mega bucks...his power game and the quiet menace and swagger that goes with it. If I were Nimmo, doubling my power output in 2017 would be job 1. Get that power bat going. Or his pick may well be a bust too.

Mack Ade said...

The Nimmo pick had it's own story.

The Mets turned their entire draft picking that year to a guy that left the day after the draft to head up scouting for another team

Nimmo was a 'way wha?' to even the insiders in that organization.

Thomas Brennan said...

Incredible...he seems a long shot to be an everyday OF, but Tebow may beat him to it LOL.

Thomas Brennan said...

Incredible...he seems a long shot to be an everyday OF, but Tebow may beat him to it LOL.

Adam Smith said...

Man, it'd be nice if we had a couple of those young, big-hitting OF's in our system.

Mack Ade said...

Adam -

I'm telling you...

You can get one of these untested prospects for a tested guy like Bruce.

Thomas Brennan said...

Gotta do it, Mack.

Eddie Corona said...

Man I love this stuff...
The best line in the whole article was "so sometimes it pays to lose"...
And I have always agreed with that statement... If I don't have a team capable of winning a championship then Lose... And Lose big... I cannot complain that we should have drafted someone if we never had the change of that... I have so many examples of that (2 come to mind)
Verlander at the 2 pick we chose 3 and took Humber
Addison Russell at the 11 pick we chose 12 and took Cecchini...
And both picks were a difference of like 2 wins... and anyone who says that tanking is not a good strategy I say SEE THEO EPSTEIN... Curse killer in Boston and Chicago...

Secondly what is touch is losing out on guys in the top ten that we had a chance to get...J. P. Crawford (dome smith may still be good but its pretty nice to draft a guy rated no.2 in all of baseball)

Lucas Giolito At the time i didnt kill them for this pick since he was hut and we were just starting the build but I always hated the Cecchini pick (no matter what he ends up doing) ... we missed on Russell But Seager was available if we were adamant about drafting a SS... How would we have looked then...

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