12/26/16

Richard Jones- My Ranking of the Mets Top Ten Prospects

11 comments

When it comes to ranking prospect I don't have any complicated equations or philosophies. I put myself in a GMs mindset. I think about being in a conversation about a trade. Who am I most reluctant to include in a trade. That's my number one. I follow that train f thought down the line. If I were a GM I would be more reluctant to give up a player that has some chance at being something special but also is less likely to make it to the majors than a player who is more established and is likely to make it to the majors but most likely as a reserve. Thomas Szapucki is a good example of the former. He is a lefty starter that has the stuff to be something special but his command and delivery are reasons to give doubt to whether he will ever make it. Someone like Brandon Nimmo seems almost certain to have a fairly long major league career but I don't see anything that would lead me to believe he will be an elite major league player.

  There has been a lot written about most of these players. With the more familiar players I didn't feel the need to make a comment when I had nothing to add.

1. Amed Rosario
Rosario should be ready to take over the SS position in 2018. Scouts say he is the best defensive Mets SS prospect since Rey Ordonez with a cannon of an arm. That would put him ahead of Reyes, that's high praise. He also can hit. He is the best Mets prospect at a premium position in quite a while.

2. Robert Gsellman
Las Vegas gets criticized a lot when it comes to venues for developing minor league pitchers. I have a different theory. I think it is among the best venues for developing young pitching. Mental toughness is a must for a major league pitcher. Las Vegas is going to test that mental toughness. When you're stripped of your breaking ball by the Vegas thin air you have two options. Cave in or learn how to pitch because we all have learned that no fastball alone is good enough to blow away hitters at that level.

 I believe Gsellmen chose to learn how to pitch in Vegas rather than caving in. His success in Queens was built on his command of the strike zone. Not just throwing strikes but locating those strikes and changing speeds. I see Gsllemen as a deGrom lite. I think their success as major league pitchers came about in similar ways. The 5th starters slot should be Gsellmen's to lose. Unless Wheeler blows the Mets away in spring training it should be his. Even if everything with the fab five goes perfect I still think there should be plenty of starts for Gsellmen. 4 of the five are coming back from surgeries and the Mets are going to need to limit their innings. Gsellmen gives them the luxury of doing that with a high quality starter. He is important enough to the success of the 2017 rotation that there would be little chance of trading him if it were up to me.

3. Thomas Szapucki
High 90s and a lefty. That's all I need to say about that. He is also younger than Justin Dunn, who is ranked ahead of him in most early 2017 rankings.

4. Dominic Smith
The Mets best offensive prospect. He also has Gold Glove potential at first base.

5. Justin Dunn
The Mets 1st pick in the 2016 draft. features 4 quality pitches, one of those being a high 90s fastball.

6. Brandon Nimmo

7. Gavin Cecchini

8. Desmond Lindsay
His natural athleticism gives him a high ceiling. He produced well at low levels in his first professional season.

9. Marcos Molina
After the fab five made it to the majors he emerged as the Mets number one pitching prospect. Tommy John surgery derailed that. This fall he made his comeback. He looked good in a brief assignment in the Arizona Fall League. Is delivery hasn't changed much. Still little lower body movement and all arm.

10. Andres Gimenez
The highest ceiling shortstop in the Mets system not named Amed Rosario. Still very young and he still has a long way to go.

11 comments:

Reese Kaplan said...

If Dom Smith is the second coming of James Loney (no power but a good glove and solid spray hitting) is that a bad thing? 1st base is traditionally a slugger's position and the club will have an interesting decision to make as Lucas Duda finishes his final year of control and becomes a free agent.

Mack Ade said...

Reese -

There was a good article written somewhere this morning on Smith. Said he would be a great prospect if he was playing any other position, but because he is so slow (ground balls he hits in the infield will become outs) and the fact that he purposely spray hits to the opposite field, he will never be the 30+ home run hitter everyone wants from a first baseman.

Mack Ade said...

https://elitesportsny.com/2016/12/26/new-york-mets-dominic-smith-future-problems-alderson/

Richard Jones said...

I don't know about Loney but I would be happy with a Keith Hernandez clone.

Thomas Brennan said...

I think Szapucki corrects any command issues and comes quickly as a special starter.

I also read Dunn loses velocity quickly. If that persists, he can be a power pen arm...also quickly. But not a starter.

Good list. Hopefully Molina improves his mechanics and stays healthy.

Mack Ade said...

Richard -

My opinion...

Smith will consistently hit in the .280-.300 range and play with Golden Glove defense, but the Mets will have to bat him low in the batting order because of his lack of power and slowness on the basepaths.

Thomas Brennan said...

I wonder if Smith, Loney, Kranepool and Staub ran a 100 yard dash who would win....and would the winner cross the finish line in time for pitchers and catchers?

Robb said...

I just think your methodology is very smart. its similar to creating trade ideas. if it doesnt hurt its not enough. if it hurts too much, why?

I would have lindsey higher but thats just me and prospect fatigue on nimmo and cecchini.

I think gsellman has 2/3 potential which is a valuable commodity.

Richard Jones said...

Robb
Lindsey could become the best on this list. The list is just mine. I have no special insight so I'm sure I'm wrong on some of this. I just do it for the fun of it. We'll see how it all pans out in about 5 years.

Thomas Brennan said...

Good list, Richard.

Richard Jones said...

Thank you Thomas
We will know in about 5 years. I agree I think Szapucki continues to make improvements and becomes something special. That's why I have him higher than just about everyone I read. I watched some video of him. Wicked stuff, if he learns to command it there will be no stopping him. I think another factor in his favor is Frank Viola.

Mack's Mets © 2012