I have been a vocal supporter of a team constructed around "run suppression" for as long as I have been a fan of baseball and of course, the Mets. Some of you may recall my sporadic commentary within the feedback section of your previous articles on this blog or perhaps you recall my recent article on how"run differential" can be used as a tool to determine how successful a team was during that window.
Using "run differential" is interesting but is isn't necessarily a predictive tool because you are using a body of work that has already occurred. Most teams do not stay the same from year to year, so the differential may not be accurate from one season to the next. For example, the Mets had a positive run differential in 2015 and 2016, which were good seasons overall. Last year, a negative run differential occurred due to poor performance and injuries and the result left a lot to be desired.
The basic core of the team has been kept intact, so it would not be unreasonable to assume that a return to good health would also mean a return to a positive run differential (like 2015 and 2016) and a better result on the field. A basic tenant of the game is to outscore your opponent, so the desire for a positive run differential should be every team's desire.
Cool, so outside of hoping for better health, how do we get there?
The sarcastic answer would be "score more runs and give up less" and that would be generally accurate. But it misses the point, because as we all know, the Mets do not have a flawless roster with extra prospects for trades and they do not have an unlimited budget from which to draw upon. Instead, there are limitations and budgets to consider, so Sandy must be wise and maximize his resources.
In a perfect world, you would aggressively adjust BOTH categories which would have the most impact on the bottom line (positive run differential).
From my vantage point, increasing runs scored is the more costly approach. Power hitters are expensive,especially ones that can also fill a position of need and provide versatility. I do not see a route this off season that the Mets can take that will significantly increase the runs scored column, outside of a return to health for our better hitters (Conforto, Cespedes) and finding an upgrade who can play 2B regularly (Brian Dozier, please). So, the alternate route is to play better defense and to add talent to the roster that can do the same. Players that are exceptional defensively are usually bit cheaper to acquire, which makes that approach more likely.
From my vantage point, increasing runs scored is the more costly approach. Power hitters are expensive,especially ones that can also fill a position of need and provide versatility. I do not see a route this off season that the Mets can take that will significantly increase the runs scored column, outside of a return to health for our better hitters (Conforto, Cespedes) and finding an upgrade who can play 2B regularly (Brian Dozier, please). So, the alternate route is to play better defense and to add talent to the roster that can do the same. Players that are exceptional defensively are usually bit cheaper to acquire, which makes that approach more likely.
A full season of Juan Lagares in CF, Amed Rosario at SS and Dominic Smith at 1B is an excellent start. Michael Conforto was better then advertised in RF and a motivated Yoenis Cespedes CAN be a quality defensive player in LF. In my estimation, that leaves defensive voids at 2B, 3B (not sold on Cabrera as our starter) and Catcher.
Sandy should make defense a priority when filling these spots for 2018!
Moving several seasons forward, I envision Luis Guilllorme as the future at 2B, Andres Giminez at 3B and Thomas Nido behind the plate. In addition to home grown talent, they are all good to great players with the glove, continuing the proper emphasis on defense.
In short, a team that plays in a ball park like "CitiField" (large park, suppresses offense to a degree), with a roster that emphasizes pitching and a new manager that specializes in the same, should be focused on RUN SUPPRESSION. By doing so, you will have just as much of an impact on run differential as you would adding a bunch of offense to the mix. Plus, run suppression techniques (good defense and effective pitching) are usually much more consistent and it also lends itself to post-season success. Think of all the major post-season moments decided by plays that were or were not made.....hello Billy Buckner!
In more recent times, I still believe that the 2015 World Series would have been different had the Mets simply played with better fundamentals and fielded their positions as well as the Royals did (think of Cespedes' Game One gaffe in CF, or Lucas Duda's poor throw to the plate late in that series, for starters).
Better health, better pitching and BETTER DEFENSE is the prescription for success in 2018. I just hope that Sandy finally realizes the importance of catching the baseball and makes an effort to fix the problem.
7 comments:
Duda's World Series errant throw just sailed past Saturn, according to NASA footage.
Super defense does help avoid glaring Buckner (and Duda) type miscues.
It does, plus it has a major impact on your pitching staff (fewer pitches thrown, fewer "outs" to get in place of errors that extend innings).
It can make a good staff exceptional, IMO.
No doubt - one of the worst fielding teams ever was the 1962 Mets, by the way...201 errors, 147 unearned runs.
1962 continued - Craig Anderson was 3-17 for the 1962 Mets - he allowed 78 earned runs, but an additional 30 unearned runs!
5.35 ERA, but 7.42 total runs per 9 innings.
As I've said a number of times about the Mets team ERA and middle field defense... oh never mind...
I'll buy the middle defense argument IF and only IF you are strong at the corners. I'll give you a healthy Cespedes and Conforto. However, Asdrubal Cabrera is not Mike Moustakas and Dom Smith is not yet even Lucas Duda.
I'm with you, Mack. Pitching and D, especially up the middle.
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