If you read the first installment of this series, I mentioned my preoccupation with the game show "The Price is Right" and how a couple of the games reminded me of the Mets roster and their possibilities in 2018.
The
overall roster is largely complete, whether we like it or not. It also
contains certain players who will be much more influential (positive or
negative) on the team’s performance then other members of the roster.
In a previous article, I used the term “foundation pieces” to describe
these players as they will likely be the reason that the team wins or
fails to do so. I will select a different player for each article and
it will include their “career” statistical average(s).
Once
we have an average performance documented, we will play “more or less”
using their career baseline as the "displayed price" (keep in mind that
some players have more statistical data then others, so in cases where
the major league data is lacking, I used their minor league numbers to
produce a baseline). In short, if our key players mostly produce “more”
then expected, it will likely manifest itself into a successful season
and possibly a return to the playoffs.
The second player we will look at is arguably our staff "ace"; Jacob DeGrom
JD has
pitched a total of four seasons with the Mets (2014 through 2017), but a
closer look shows a bit of a pattern developing. In the even numbered
years (2014, 2016) he appeared in 22 and 24 games, respectively (which
is less then a full season). However, in the odd numbered years (2015,
2017) he appeared in 30 and 31 games which is around the bench mark for a
starting pitcher over the course of a full season. If you blindly
follow that pattern, then he is due for a season where he misses some
starts, but hopefully that is not the case since he is a huge piece of
the rotation puzzle.
To
make things interesting (or as interesting as stats can be), I will
list his statistical line for the two seasons he made at least 30 starts
and then his statistical line for his
entire career.
(2015 and 2017 combined) (Career Averages - 2014 through 2017)
30.50 Starts - 196.33 IP 26.75 Starts - 170.33 IP
14.50 Wins and 9.00 Losses 11.25 Wins and 8.00 Losses
3.04 ERA - 1.08 WHIP 2.98 ERA - 1.13 WHIP
222 K (10.18 K/9 IP) 182 K (9.62 K/9 IP)
48 BB (4.62 K/BB) 44 BB (4.14 K/BB)
4.55 WAR 4.00 WAR
Clearly,
JD is a very good pitcher as his career stats are not too far behind
the "cherry picked" stats for his two better seasons. My point here is
to show that we need
a healthy
DeGrom in 2018 and everything else will likely take care of itself at
the top of the rotation.
So, the question becomes do we get the
dominant Jacob DeGrom from 2015 and 2017
which would be "more", or do we get something closer to his career
averages, which would be "less"?
Both versions would be an asset, but
the JG that eclipses the 30 start plateau is a true "ace" and a foundation piece for a successful 2018 campaign.
4 comments:
Clearly when you have a pitcher of this caliber what a smart team does is either try to lock him up into a long term contract or trade him away for multiple pieces.
The Mets do what Sandy Alderson does best -- nothing.
Sign me up for 2018 ace deGrom..
I think he will be closer to the "ace" version, too.
He is also someone (along with Noah), who I would try to lock up for a few more years.......maybe Sandy will get that done?
DeGrom is DeMan.
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