Tom Brennan: THE AGE OF DECLINE - HITTERS' EDITION

 

Tom Brennan: THE AGE OF DECLINE - HITTERS' EDITION

Many centuries ago, the Greek and Roman Empires experienced a period that could be called their Golden Age, followed by an Age of Decline.

Similarly, quality baseball hitters reach their Golden Age, followed by an Age of Decline.  Sometimes the decline is gentle and gradual, sometimes precipitous and severe.  When deciding to keep, trade for, or sign aging players, which Slope of Decline might ensue is often a crapshoot.

David Wright is one of the poster boys of precipitous decline....we all know chapter and verse here, so I will not elaborate.

How about a few great players, both Mets and non-Mets?

Ken Griffey, Jr. was utterly spectacular - he had nearly 440 career homers before he turned 31.  His stretch, from age 23 through age 30, was jaw-dropping.He had "just" 190 more dingeroos over his last 10 years, in which he managed to hit as many as 30 in a season twice, and never managed 100 RBIs in a season over his last decade.  Steep decline.

Mo Vaughn - Big Mo averaged 38 homers and 116 RBIs while playing in an average 150 games  over a 6 year stretch from age 27 through 32.  Wow.  Then Slo Mo missed his age 33 year with an injury, and then (what else) signed with the Mets. In 166 Mets games over 2 seasons at age 34 and 35, he hit .249 and 29 homers, and retired.  Steep decline.

Mike Piazza was an unparalleled hitting catcher until age 33. In his final 5 years, though, he averaged just 16 homers.  Catchers do wear out, and while his decline was not precipitous, he certainly went from Immortal to Mortal in those last 5 seasons.

Jason Bay - we all know about him too - PRECIPITOUS - declining almost as fast as getting a facial from a fence while going 25 MPH.  Fences usually win.

Hubie Brooks - the former Met did just fine for a long time, particularly in his age 28 through age 33 seasons with the Expos and LAD - then the Mets got him back at age 34 and then he declined (surprised?) as he hit just .238 over 103 games, then played at ages 35 through 37 poorly, hitting .225 with low power and low on base % before hanging up the cleats. 

Michael Cuddyer - after Mike briefly bucked the age-brings-decline trend and hit a Colorado-aided .331 in 179 games spanning 2 seasons at age 34 and 35 (although the latter season was limited to just 49 games - WARNING WARNING!). 


Then the Mets got him and he played very unimpressively at age 36 and summarily retired thereafter.  Can playing in Queens cause precipitous decline?  When someone asked Roger Daltrey to play for the Mets, the Who's now-72 year old clean up hitter sang "I hope I die before I get old."

Curtis Granderson - the man hit an average of 42 homers a season at age 30 and 31 in the friendly confines of Yankee Stadium while scoring 238 runs and knocking in 225, but at age 32, he missed much of the season due to a few broken hand injuries.  The Mets, who seek out players in decline, it seems, grabbed him for his 33 thru 36 year old seasons, and he averaged 25 homers and 65 RBIs, not too bad but a big drop from a few years prior, and he hit just .235 in those 4 Mets years in a career where he otherwise hit .261. 


His decline was certainly not precipitous, but it was nonetheless significant.

 

Albert Pujols - through age 31, everyone could see he was Ruthian: .328/.420/.617 career with 445 homers.  Since going to the Angels, though, he has played 6 years (ages 32-37) and, while his production has been solid for a mere mortal starting player, his numbers have dropped VERY substantially: .262/.319/.459.

 

Carlos Baerga - assuming his birth certificate was reliable, he was tremendous for Cleveland over a 5 year stretch from ages 22 through 26, where he hit over .310 with very solid power numbers.  In his age 27 season in 1996, he was not doing nearly as well, and the Mets traded for him during that 1996 season. 


For a few seasons with the Mets, he hit a far lower-powered .267, and afterwards had his ups and downs in much more limited playing time from ages 30 thru 36 before his major league playing days are over.   

Just a few other non-Mets super-steep decliners:

 

Zoilo Versalles - the 1960s infielder won an MVP at age 25, but hit just .198 at ages 27 and 28, and was done at 29.  29!

 

Nate Colbert - hit 30 homers a year for 5 years stretching from age 23 thru age 27 in the early 1970's playing in hitter-Unfriendly San Diego - but ages 28 thru 30 were brutal for Nate, as he hit well under .200 in 650 at bats with just 24 homers, and was done by age 30.

 

Morale of this story?

 

The likes of a Jay Bruce (still available on Thursday) or an Evan Longoria (whoops, he's gone) could look mighty good right now as a possible trade or free agent acquisition, but where are their future career decline points, and will those declines be gentle or precipitous? 


Often, historically, those declines have been quite precipitous (the likely PED-aided Barry Bonds being an extreme, but rare, contrary example of a steep INCLINE while aging).

 

So while most of us want Sandy to go big and bold, the risks there are severe and potentially very painful.

 

On the latter point, cue up David Wright's image, please. 

 

Caveat Emptor, as they used to say in the long-gone Roman Empire.  Let the buyer beware.  Especially Mets buyers.