12/16/17

Mike - Roster Construction Possibilities - Part Four


I am going to present my thoughts on this topic over the course of several articles, since each section requires some explanation and things would become a bit lengthy if it was presented as one piece.

The idea for this series of articles came about while listening to fellow Mets fans discuss what the Mets "need to do" in the off season in order to return to relevance.  Some would argue that a complete roster overhaul is necessary, while others feel that only a healthy season from our pitching staff will be the key to success.  Like most topics, the truth lies somewhere in the middle.

So, in order to figure out what our favorite team needs to do, it makes sense to take stock of what is on hand first.  Sort of like grocery shopping......you take a look in the pantry before you make a list to take to the store.   Additionally, you also need to have a general framework with which to work.  Using our grocery store analogy, you likely have a series of meals planned out ahead of time and you craft your list based upon what you are trying to accomplish.

The alternative is to go shopping on a whim without any consideration for what you are trying to accomplish.  A cart full of random, expensive ingredients that don't accomplish your goal may look nice at the checkout counter, but it won't work out when the time comes to execute your plan.

Most teams employ a similar framework for roster construction, like so;

Starters - C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, LF, CF, RF

Bench - C2, MI, CI, OF4, OF5

Rotation - SP1, SP2, SP3, SP4, SP5

Bullpen - LR-R, LR-L, S-R, S-L, SET-R, SET-L, CL1

***I will explain the roster designations further as we move along, in case the letters don't make sense.

***I also understand that we may be moving towards an eight man bullpen, so you would swap one of the bench pieces for the extra arm.  For now, I am going to proceed as though we are constructing a more traditional roster.

Now that we know what positions need to be filled, we can take a closer look at what the current team has "in the pantry", so to speak.

You can break the current roster down into three subsections;

1.  Foundation Pieces

2.  Support Pieces

3.  Replacement Pieces and/or Voids

For the last installment in this series, we will take a look at what positions are still open (or should be open) on the Mets' roster and some of the potential solutions that Sandy could consider to rectify the problems.

As a review, after evaluating the current state of the Mets' roster, I counted the following positions as "open" or in need of an upgrade;

2B - VOID

I know that some folks have mentioned Wilmer Flores or Gavin Cecchini as possible alternatives here.  I just don't see either player as a FULL TIME solution to the problem.  In a pinch or for a few games, maybe, but not on a contending ball club.  I prefer Wilmer as the
CI (Corner Infielder) on my bench, someone who will fill in as needed and maybe serve as a platoon piece or pinch hitter.   Gavin may yet fulfill the promise of his draft status, but for now I want an upgrade here in the worst way.

Despite the depth in the minor leagues that could fill this spot in 2019 or 2020, I would urge Sandy to find a solution to this void before Spring Training 2018.   In my humble opinion, this is the biggest void on the roster.   I am not sure on the cost, but Brian Dozier from the Twins would sure look nice in our 2018 lineup.

3B - David Wright**

Yes, the Captain is penciled in here, but can we count on him?  I love the guy and he is one of my favorite Mets of all time, but after a while you have to realize that his body is simply not cooperating with the rigors that a professional athlete endures on a daily basis.  My vote would be to offer him a position in the front office as some sort of ambassador so David and the team can both move on.

Asdrubal Cabrera is the next name in line for this slot and will likely be the choice if and when David can't play regularly.  I was not a fan of picking up his option for 2018, but I understand why they did.   With that said, I like him better as the MI (Middle Infielder) on my bench who can provide similar production to what Wilmer Flores will provide as the CI.

So, if not those two then who?  The free agent list at the hot corner is a bit underwhelming after Mike Moustakas, but he will want a long term commitment and a large financial investment which is unlikely with David's contract on the books already.  Perhaps a shorter term investment in one of the mid-tier free agents like Todd Frazier or Neil Walker?   Either way, I would also move Andres Gimenez over to third base in St Lucie since Amed Rosario likely has SS blocked for the long term.   Or, maybe we could entice the Orioles to part with Manny Machado for a few prospects?  (OK, so that's unlikely but nice to think about)

OF5 - VOID

Not as pressing of a need, but a position that Sandy should look to fill with a veteran free agent.   With Nori Aoki departing as a free agent, I am not sure who they could turn to on the current roster to fill this void?   It may be a moot point if the Mets explore an eight man bullpen as rumored, since it would require that they relinquish a position player and a fifth outfielder is likely the one to go first.   If not, I would prefer a defensive minded player with some speed that can be used off the bench.   If you review the list of available outfielders, there are plenty to choose form.   Lower on the totem pole of needs, when all is said and done.

***It seems that the Mets may be meeting with Jay Bruce during the Winter Meetings.  I don't consider him fast or a good defensive player, so his addition would alter the roster a bit.   Maybe at Brandon Nimmo's expense?   Or if Dominic Smith completely crashes and burns?  Not sure on the fit here, to be honest.

LR-R - Seth Lugo**

This position (long reliever from the right side) may be pretty busy if the Mets actually employ the theory of limiting most of their starting pitchers to two trips through the opposing teams' lineup.  For NOW, I put Lugo's name here, but I think he will be in the rotation before too long, likely at Zack Wheeler's expense.  In that scenario, I think Zack moves to the bullpen and perhaps, into this slot.   There are additional names to consider here, such as Robert Gselleman and Rafael Montero.   I think this slot is still to be determined by Spring Training, but should be filled by one of the listed folks who can eat some innings in the middle of a game.  The players that do not make it here could be trade bait for one of the other voids on the roster.

LR-L - VOID

On my roster, this is the counterpart to the LR-R and it may also be fairly busy depending on how the Mets handle the pitching staff.  Originally, i figured Mike Minor would be an excellent addition to the staff in exactly this spot.  He is off to Texas, so it is back to the drawing board.  There is a quite a shortage of left handed pitching on the Mets' forty man roster, which means Sandy should be shopping for multiple left handed relievers.    This slot demands more of a rubber armed pitcher who can eat up several innings at a time, so someone like Josh Smoker isn't my first choice (but he has a place a bit later in this piece).    Maybe Jake McGee on an incentive laden deal?  Tony Watson?  A future trade?

S-R - VOID

This is a slot for a situational right handed reliever, which should be someone who can come into a game and dominate a hitter or two, induce a key ground out or close out an inning when needed.  Recently, Hansel Robles was viewed as the guy to fill this spot but I an not sold on him, to be honest.  I think the Mets can do better and Sandy was obviously thinking the same thing with his trades this past year.  Any of the newbies in those deals (Jamie Callahan, Gerson Bautista) could be looked upon to audition for this slot, or you could even 
use a hard thrower like Wheeler here if he cannot stay in the rotation.  Or, a free agent like Joe Smith for example.  An important piece in the bullpen and one that will likely be filled pretty quickly this off season.  

SET-L - VOID

In a seven or eight man bullpen, you have to have options.  In my bullpen, I want a set up man who brings the heat from the left side that I can pair with AJ Ramos from the right side.  Either candidate should be able to get the game to your closer (Familia) or they should be even be able to close out a game here and there.  I mentioned Josh Smoker earlier because he is one of the few lefties on the roster and it appears that he may have had something "click" for him last season.  Can you trust him in a higher leverage situation?  I am not sure, but that is what Spring Training is for, right?  It wouldn't hurt to add some additional left handed relief pitching to the roster, just in case.  The key to me is "hard throwing".

So, as this series draws to a close, you can see that the Mets have some work to do before they report to St  Lucie in February.  The list of potential openings cannot conceivably be filled in one off season with just free agents and/or trades, when you consider things like limited trade assets and the overall team budget.  Some of them will likely be filled internally, by existing members of the team or by promoting a young player who is ready for the "show".

However, Sandy will NOT be able to address all of the openings by simply standing pat and relying on what is on hand "in the pantry".  That approach is similar to what occurred prior to the 2017 season and that did not go well, to put it nicely.  Instead, he needs to go shopping with a predetermined list and use the trade route and the free agency route to address the some of the roster openings for 2018.  Additional talent is needed in the everyday lineup (2B, 3B) as well as in the bullpen and on the bench for depth purposes.

What does your list look like?

11 comments:

Reese Kaplan said...

I could be induced to part with Dom Smith in a deal to shore up another area and either signing someone to a short term contract or handing the job to Wilmer Flores until Pete Alonso is ready.

They are counting on Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Conforto (when healthy) so a CF or RF with Conforto again manning CF would fall into that "position of need" category. Lagares can be a starter only if you had solid production everywhere else. Nimmo is likely a 4th/5th outfielder.

2B or 3B remain positions of need with Asdrubal Cabrera getting one of them.

Starting pitching is a position of need particularly with the fragile state of the starters.

Another solid bullpen piece is a position of need.

The possibilities are endless but no movement appears to be on the horizon. I don't like giving up on youngsters before they had a chance to prove themselves, but I understand you have to give to get. They have precious little to give, so Smith and/or Flores are few of your only major league ready chips.

Tom Brennan said...

I have Tyler Bashlor well ahead of Gerson Bautista at this point. I see Tyler arriving in 2018, Bautista in 2019.

Dom Smith - star or imposter? 2018 will tell the tale. Hopefully, he will hit higher in 2018 than his weight in 2017.

Mack Ade said...

I "talked" with Peter yesterday on Twitter.

He put up a video of him squatting, like, a million pounds.

One of my Met reader/follower asked him if he could play 3B and his return tweet was a little testy. The writer is a nice guy so I don't think he meant anything negative.

I'm sure Peter knows of his limitation on the field as I am sure he is working on that.

The important thing is he is busting his ass... in December.

Bill Metsiac said...

Peter??

Hobie said...

Would Dom, Cecchini & Harvey bring back Longoria? If it did, it did, would you pull the trigger. If so I go hard after Bruce (for 1B) and see how Legares/Nimmo work out in CF. If not, I'll go with Cabrera/Flores (3B/2B or vice versa) if a real effort for Machado/Donaldson is in the 2019 offing.

But no Mous, Nunez, Kipnis etc.

Tom Brennan said...

Has to be Peter Alonso that Mack is referring to.

Reese Kaplan said...

@Metsiac -- Peter Alonso, 1B prospect who may supplant Dom Smith because he's more of a classic power hitter.

bill metsiac said...

I like everything I have heard/read about Alonso, but how can he exist when "we don't draft power hitters"?

Anonymous said...

I agree with you Reese, at this early juncture Dom Smith is a crapshot still.

Here's the bigger issue at hand here. The NYM cannot afford to lose again Yoenis Cespedes' homerun power during the 2018 season. You have to protect him, his legs. He's over 30 years old and this is when leg injuries come more into play especially for a player with NFL leg muscle tone, as Yoenis has.

So the Mets move him to first base, put Conforto in left, add a Domingo Santana (30 HR/2017). The Dom Smith wonderment disappears with his trade inclusion for a valid number three rotation slot left handed starter.

Anonymous said...

I too think that Peter Alonso is going to be something special at first base MetLand soon. At youtube he seems to crush the ball and he is like 6'3" solid muscle. Mets have not had a homegrown similar maybe since Duda.

Reese, I hope that Sandy and now his new assistant Omar Minaya can see that they would do well moving Cespedes to first (to protect his legs) and acquire via trade a homerun bashing corner outfielder more. That would give the 2018 Mets four homerun hitters fro the 3-6 batting lineup.

bill metsiac said...

You really think that the stretches a 1Bman has to make will be EASIER on Yo's legs?