Mack’s Mets contributor Mike Freire drew a line in the sand
based upon Monday’s “How to Spend the Remaining Payroll” article. The issue for many Mets fans (also
highlighted in Marc Carig’s article on the lack of transparency with the
Wilpons) is that the team is not clearly trying to win now nor are they building
for the future. The end result is a
continual series of half measures you take by signing the odd second tier veteran
here or over-the-hill star there in order to perpetuate the illusion of competitiveness
without actually hitting the mark.
When you think back to 2015 when the Mets were treading
water around .500 but in striking distance of the top, they made moves to help
propel them forward, including the acquisitions of Kelly Johnson and Juan
Uribe, the addition of Yoenis Cespedes, and bullpen fortifications in the form
of Tyler Clippard, Addison Reed and Eric O’Flaherty (the latter just to prove
you can’t win ‘em all). The injuries
that hit in 2016 were frequent yet the team managed to hit the post-season
again.
Starting out in 2017 within a span of less than two weeks
you’d lost a top starting pitcher, your top relief pitcher, starting catcher
and missed the face of the franchise for the entire season. As the snakebitten year progressed they lost
pretty much the rest of the rotation except Jacob de Grom as well as Yoenis
Cespedes, Michael Conforto and by year’s end both Wilmer Flores and T.J. Rivera
were gone as well.
So going into 2018 fans were hoping for a clear
direction. Are they going to make the
investment in talent and management personnel necessary to win, or are they
going to sell off their top assets and hope to rebuild quickly by reaping the
rewards of the players moved.
Anyone who has been around in the post-Madoff days knows
the former isn’t happening. However, based
upon Sandy Alderson’s transactions with the departing free agents last year,
not many would feel confident in that latter scenario either. Hey, we all wish the best for Jacob Rhame,
Jamie Callahan, Drew Smith, Gerson Bautista, Stephen Nogosek, Ryder Ryan and Eric Hanhold all evolve into
the second coming of Aroldis Chapman (minus the ill-advised gun play), but none
were any of the trading organization’s top 10 prospects nor were any ready to
step in and make an immediate positive impact.
That’s not to say waiting isn’t a good thing. After all, that low level minor league pitcher throw-in named
Noah Syndergaard turned out to be pretty good, huh? It’s just that lower level minor leaguers are
harder to predict as arm injuries and better hitters threaten their ascent
through the ranks.
Still, as painful as it is to say it, what would you be
able to net back if you offered up Jacob deGrom in trade to another
ballclub? For reference, the Cubs once
traded Jeff Samardzija and Jason
Hammel to the A’s for their number one prospect named Addison
Russell. Do you think the Cubs wouldn't do
that one over again every day and twice on Sunday? How about when the Astros sent veteran hurler
Larry Anderson to Beantown for an unknown AA hitter named Jeff Bagwell?
So what could the Mets land
in a deal for deGrom who has three years of financial control available to the
acquiring team and has pitched to All-Star level since his arrival relatively late
to the majors. He’s turning 30 this year
and it’s reasonable to assume whomever gets him will land three spectacular
years of performance at a cost-controlled price.
Obviously for the very same
reasons he’d be attractive to other teams, he’s also attractive to the
Mets. However, if you could fortify two
to three other positions with cost-controllable assets (music to the Wilpons’
and Alderson’s ears), would you do it?
For example, suppose the
Blue Jays offered up Vlad Guerrero, Jr. and Bo Bichette (both children of
former stars), would you pull the trigger?
Guerrero in 673 ABs has hit .305 with 21 HRs, 122 RBIs and has more
walks than strikeouts to go along with 23 SBs.
He’s a third baseman by trade and coincidentally the Mets have a third
baseman who is (due to health) long past his prime. Bichette has had 530 minor league ABs and hit
a mere .372 with 18 HRs and 110 RBIs along with 25 SBs and an OBP of .427. He plays primarily 2B, also a position of
need.
The problem here is their
tender ages of 19…they’re not ready to contribute in 2018 nor 2019 but with
output like that it’s possible by 2021 when deGrom is set to be a free agent
they would both break into the majors.
Could Mets fans swallow hard and realize that the long term benefit
could outweigh the short term loss?
Certainly the Wilpons would like it as de Grom is set to be a $10
million man this year and that price will continue to go up each of the next
few years of arbitration eligibility.
The Blue Jays, however, still smarting from the R.A. Dickey deal may not
want to do it.
Still, that’s the kind of
aggressive demand I would make for Jacob deGrom. (And don’t be surprised if another team bites at it). The question is, would the fans
revolt or rejoice? Bear in mind the
losing that would inevitably accompany your stud starter leaving would also
help lead to higher draft picks and more growth for the future (assuming they
find someone in the front office more talented to do the picking).
Have at it.
16 comments:
I love Jake - one of my all-time favorite pitchers.
Guerrero could well be a future superstar who I believe, contrary to what Reese indicated, will debut in the majors in 2019. Bichette may be as, or almost, as good, and my guess is he bursts onto the scene in 2020. Add him in the infield to Rosario and Smith - major wow by 2021.
Painful as it would be, I'd make that deal, and go out and sign Yu Darvish or someone comparable.
Sorry but, I am not trading: Rosario, deGrom or Syndergaard...Fred is old, he can't live forever; and then hopefully the Jeffrey will lose all interest in baseball, sell the team to someone that wants to win, and then pursue his spot in politics...
If the Mets would be willing to trade deGrom, (my personal favorite Mets), why not just trade Syndergaard as well and get at least 3 other stud prospects?
In reality what's needed is for the Wilpons to open their wallets and get real players. I doesn't have to be all at once, but at least a couple with the mindset that 2019 is the year the Mets go for the championship.
I was all in to trade De Grom to Houston in July and got back a boatload of prospects, so i would be willing to do it.
Unfortunately they traded all the other free agent veterans and took back no salary in any of those trades. If they would of taken back salary our farm system would have been better off. Stupid moves by a stupidly run organization...
Zozo
@Zozo- Preaching to the choir...
Zozo, "a penny saved is a penny earned."
The elder Wilpon grew up during the Depression - now, it's just us fans that experience depression LOL
I'm not ready to throw in the towel and rebuild, staying out of contention until 2021 or so. We have young core players in Conforto, Rosario and Smith, (Yes, I believe Dom will get his head straight and be back at 1B by mid year.) as well as that rotation. With the right additions, this team can definitely contend this year. (Unless health issues derail us once more, of course.)
If I am doing any major trading now, I shop Cespedes. The Cards already got their heavy hitter in Ozuna, but the Giants are looking, and several AL teams need a slugger as well. Cespedes' no-trade clause is a barrier, but he might be induced to accept a trade. If so, I would use the prospects we got in return, combined with some of our own, to bring a package to Miami for Yellich, and maybe Realmuto as well.
@Herb.....that's the rub, isn't it? You don't want to throw in the towel for three years, but the Wilpons likely won't authorize Sandy to make the moves necessary to fortify the roster and actually contend.
The middle ground is a frustrating place to be!
I'm with VT here--- no rebuild. Those work in 1-team cities, but never here. And I'm definitely not for selling low on Yo, Herb. We've got as much chance of getting Miami to take his contract AND giving us Yelich/Realmuto in a package deal as we do of Santa bringing them to us.
As for MnLers, does anyone here know anything about a kid named Jose Diaz? He's only 22, a converted Catcher whom the Padres just released after only 1 season on the mound in class A. Is he worth picking up to look at in St. Lucie?
I would make that trade, Reese.......the casual fan wouldn't get it, since most of them don't follow other team's prospects, etc.
I also agree that I trade Jake OR Noah, but not both......I think Noah is a piece that you can use in either scenario (win now or build for 2020, 2021).
Wow.
Just think about this a moment.
Really think about what it means.
Spend the next 5, 10, 15, 20+ yrs as a Met fan just waiting.
Waiting for the ownership to change in order to have hope as a fan that your team will have a goal and realistic plan to enjoy winning.
This is scary.
Yet it perfectly surmises what a Met fan has to accept, if they are being realistic.
The cross town team's fan base is about to experience a tidal wave of the next generations NY baseball fans.
Tom-- Fred was born in 1936, after the Depression was over. His "growing up" years were in the '40s and beyond.
A rebuild means you sign the Jhoulys Chacin types, not Yu Darvish. The point is to free up money and gain prospects. What would be accomplished in trading away deGrom and then spending even more money and more years for Darvish?
Mike,
I got back late, so I am not sure you will get to see my reply, but . .
I just don't see things the way most of the guys on this site do. IMO, the fact that the Wilpons approved moving the payroll from $85M in 2014, to $101M, $135M and then $154M last year demonstrates to me that they will OK the kind of signings that Sandy believes will field a winning team in 2018. They didn't hold him back from signing Cespedes to that big contract last year.
It is difficult to watch the Mets exercise patience as so many free agents and trade targets fall around us. But there are still plenty of quality players at each position we need to fill, and I believe in the long run Sandy will field a team that can compete for a playoff spot, so long as the health of key players holds out. And that can be said about almost any other competitive team as well.
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