12/18/17

Reese Kaplan -- How to Spend the Remaining Payroll


In the spirit of the holidays, let’s give Sandy Alderson and the Wilpons the gift of common sense and wisdom since they apparently have nothing to give us fans that patiently watch them spin their wheels or accelerate in reverse when other clubs actually make efforts to try to improve.  I’m not here today to debate the money that should be spent on a franchise in the biggest city in the country.  No, the money is what it is.  The question is how best to use it. 

To recap (and don’t even put your cup of java in the microwave oven since this won’t take long enough to heat it up), they signed Anthony Swarzak for two years at $7 million per year.  That’s it for the major league level.  Be grateful.  It’s more than they did all of last year.

They did add a few warm bodies in the minors, the most notable of which was the contract extended to Jose Lobaton and his lifetime .218 batting average.  I’m sure glad we were aggressive on that front.  After all, players who perform that poorly don’t grow on trees.  To put it in perspective, he makes you long for the offensive prowess of Ruben Tejada, Anthony Recker, Eric Young, Jr. or Kirk Nieuwenhuis – you know, guys who couldn’t stick in the majors.

So if we believe there was $30 million to spend and $23 million is left, how best should it be allocated?  Do you take on the payroll of other clubs in the hopes of improving the ballclub or do you aggressively (bwah-ha-ha) court free agents since signing them wouldn’t require you to dip into your rather barren farm system to make deals?  Or do you try to move some of the pricier assets on your roster to free up some extra cash?

Let’s look at these options.  First, who makes the most money on the Mets?  (For purposes of this exercise, we’ll leave off the underperforming personnel who get paid without picking up a bat, ball or glove):

Yoenis Cespedes -- $29 million
David Wright -- $20 million
Adrubal Cabrera -- $8.5 million
Jerry Blevins -- $7 million
Anthony Swarzak -- $7 million
Juan Lagares -- $6.5 million

These other players are arbitration eligible and thus the dollar figures are estimates:

A.J. Ramos -- $9.2 million
Jacob de Grom -- $9.2 million
Jeurys Familia -- $7.4 million
Matt Harvey -- $5.9 million
Wilmer Flores -- $3.7 million
Travis d’Arnaud -- $3.4 million
Noah Syndergaard -- $1.9 million
Zack Wheeler -- $1.9 million
Hansel Robles -- $1 million

Well, arguably there are a few here who are considered tradeable assets.  Wilmer Flores, Travis d’Arnaud, Hansel Robles and Juan Lagares immediately jump out to me.  Flores isn’t slated to be a starter, d’Arnaud has seemingly worn out his welcome despite turning in career highs in HRs and RBIs last year, Robles was more bad than good and Lagares is expensive for a defense-only player who is slated to jump to $9 million next year. 

You unfortunately have two unmovable huge contracts in Yoenis Cespedes and David Wright.  Given Cespedes’ health, bad clubhouse reputation and weak market when he was a free agent (twice) the only way he could be moved is if you kicked in a sizeable amount of money which is not the Wilpon way.  Furthermore, you’d be robbing Peter to pay Paul in that it would create even more of a struggle to save runs.  Now a brave front office might try to correct the wrongs of the past by doing just that – paying down Cespedes to say $20 million per year to the acquiring team and for that $9 million per year investment secure 2 or 3 blue chip prospects who will be cost controlled for the foreseeable future, but that requires foresight, courage and planning, none of which have been evident under the current regime.

The dark horse possibilities here might be part of the “closer by committee” chatter in which they try to free up $9 to $16 million by moving one or both of A.J. Ramos and Jeurys Familia.  If you could sign multiple quality setup guys like Boone Logan, Matt Albers, Peter Moylan, Seung-Hwan Oh, Trevor Rosenthal, Drew Storen, Koji Uehara and Tony Watson, then you could muddle through the season with quality across the board and free up some capital.  I would advocate moving both of them for $16.6 million and replacing him with two from this list such as Moylan who pitched in 79 games for the Royals last year for $1 million, Albers who earned $1.1 million or Oh who earned $2.7 million coming off a bad year.  I’d also be crazy like a fox and offer a deal to Trevor Rosenthal who is still just 27 and likely to miss the 2018 season recuperating from TJS but who has already had two seasons of over 40 saves.  Say you spend $3 million each for the 2 healthy pitchers and another $1 million for Rosenthal, that’s $7 million spent and $16.4 million saved PLUS the assets you would receive for Ramos and Familia.  If these guys were in play, all of the sudden wouldn’t the trade market open up a bit for the Mets?  Let's assume we get back one blue chip prospect for each to help prepare the Mets for the future.


As far as free agent acquisitions go, you’re pretty much behind the eight ball to start negotiations based upon the team’s reputation, the GM’s reputation, the tax basis in New York and the fact the club is not likely contending for the post-season without a major overhaul.  Still, as we have seen many times starting with the then record setting Alex Rodriguez contract with the Rangers, money talks and pennants are a secondary consideration for many free agents. 

So, towards that end, who would I target with the money available to spend?  Remember, in addition to the $23 million from the rumored budget, I have freed up another $9 million by dealing away the two expensive relievers.  So how would I spend $32 million?

Forget Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish.  They will be overpaid for likely declining years.  Lance Lynn rejected a QO so you know he’s looking at the 5 year/$100 million range.  To me they’re off the table.  My long advocated bargain option of Jhoulys Chacin and Andrew Cashner have the durability, youth and moderate price points that they would top my list.  I could be convinced to add Jason Vargas on a one to two year deal as well with his left handedness trumping his decline in the 2nd half.  Call it a $10 million insurance policy for one of them in the mold of when they brought in Bartolo Colon.  Have a backup plan in the event Wheeler, Matz or Harvey miss large chunks of time again. 

Position players are where the rest of the money needs to go.  I would look at Lorenzo Cain for CF at $16 million per year and the remaining $6 million would be put towards fortifying the bench with pieces like Jose Reyes and Mike Napoli.  Flores and Reyes could platoon at 2B and Napoli could spell Smith against lefties (or if he falters). 

None of the above will likely happen, but it’s good to dream.  How would you deal with the remaining $23 million and trade options?

15 comments:

Anonymous said...

I am gonna add $15 million to the budget via insurance money we get back from Wright’s contract. So here i go.


Trade for Kipnis and most of his contract $15 a year for 2 years
Sign bruce to a 4 year 48 mil contract, so that $12 for this year
Sign Alex Cobb 4 year 60 mil

Over budget by $4 million just back load one of the contracts because we have at least $38 mil coming off books next year

They should spend money this offseason because we all know they won’t spend the big money in next offseason free agent bonanza.

Zozo

Tom Brennan said...

Beware signing guys over 30 to long contracts - it is like walking in a mine field.

Mack Ade said...

I would buy Bitcoins.

bgreg98180 said...

I would still encourage making every decision about 2019 and beyond.

Maximize value of any players that are not part of that picture and are currently of depressed worth.

Acquire any players that should be deemed a part of what the desired team makeup would be in 2019 and beyond.

Regardless of this year's team performance, resist acquiring any players that are not a part of the future Met team vision should be.

Most importantly, communicate to the fans better the actual plan and commit to it. Do not claim afterwards "the market surprised us".

Tom Brennan said...

Bob, very valid approach - but I would hate to forego 2018 in the process.

Mack, if you had just invested $1 million in Bitcoin at the end of December, you'd have $19 million now - maybe enough to buy a minority interest in the Mets. Holding Bitcoin might be a better investment, though!

Reese Kaplan said...

You could buy the billboard companies' stock that control the ones outside CitiField. They will likely be very successful unless something dramatic changes with the club.

bgreg98180 said...

Unfortunately Alderson's plan has led the Mets to a very difficult point.

The major league roster is full of players that are maybes and can bes.

The upper minor league is decimated.

The team will not spend in the $180 million payroll range.

Any additions like Kipnis is just "dressing up the pig" by adding yet another .250 avg hitter.

This year is just all all or nothing bet on every single one of the starters performing to their peak potential.

Mike Freire said...

I think your post hints at an excellent question, which is "do the Mets TRY to compete in 2018 or do they start over?"

You can argue both sides of the issue, but my feeling is that "half stepping" will leave you where the Mets have been......in the middle. Not quite bad enough to justify starting over, but not good enough to win a title. Your draft picks are outside of the top few slots, so even your drafts are in the middle.

$%#& or get off the pot!

Reese Kaplan said...

Exactly. Last year was an aberration because they had so many injuries (and a past-his-prime Skipper) who led them into the 2nd division. If they had remained healthy, they would not have won but could have at least been somewhat competitive -- and that's the Wilpons' wheelhouse -- spend as little as possible to create the illusion of competitiveness.

I agree -- it's one way or the other.

Bill Metsiac said...

I KNEW ypur rant wouldn't be complete without kicking Terry, but I have a few questions:

1) Where did you hear that Travis has "worn out his welcome"? Everything I've read is that the team is very happy with his improvement and with the combo of him and KP.

2)Ditto with Yo's bad clubhouse reputation? He's far from a great leader, but I haven't seen knocks against him there either. Do you have specifics?

3)Do you really think that Lobaton was signed to be on the ML roster? Jis role will be to back up Nido in Vegas and use his ML experience to help the young pitchers there, and to be the emergency callup/bench warmer in case of injury to Travis/KP.

3)You've been pushing for adding payroll, so why are you suggesting CUTTING it by trading away our best pen guys and arguably best all-around hitter?

Herb G said...

Good points there, Bill. In response to Reese . . .

According to Cot's, after taking on Swarzak's $5.5 million for 2018, the Mets current commitments stand at $125.5M against about $154.5M going into 2017. That should give us $29M to work with.

Sign Jay Bruce - 4 yrs/$44 million = $11 AAV
Trade for Cesar Hernandez - Est Arb = $4.7 million
Sign Jhoulis Chacin - 2 yrs/$14 mil = $7 AAV
Trade A.J. Ramos (in C.H. deal?) = -9.2 mil
Move Zack Wheeler to bull pen
Sign Addison Reed - 3 yrs/$30 mil = $10 AAV
Sign Jose Reyes - 1 yr/$5 million = $5 mil
TOTAL SPENT = $29 MILLION
2018 PAYROLL = $154.5 MILLION (SAME AS LAST YEAR)
Lineup:Hernandez,Cabrera,Conforto,,Cespedes,Bruce,d'Arnaud,Smith,Rosario
Rotation: Thor, deGrom, Matz,Chacin, Harvey
Pen: Familia, Reed, Wheeler, Swarzak, Blevins, Sewald, Bradford
Bench: Lagares, Nimmo, Reyes, Flores, Plawecki

IMO, that's a contending team.

Tom Brennan said...

Interesting, Herb.

Reese Kaplan said...

@Metsiac

1. They actively tried to replace d'Arnaud with Lucroy.

2. Cespedes has worn out his welcome in four places in his first four years in the league. Either the teams in question DON'T see his talent or they don't think it's worth tolerating his antics. Saint Terry was so out of touch with the man that it was widely reported -- including in that veritable pot of hearsay, the NY Times -- that he wouldn't come out of the game due to injury until his teammates Cabrera and Reyes requested it because he didn't respect Collins as much as he did his own teammates. (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/27/sports/baseball/mets-yoenis-cespedes-asdrubal-cabrera-jose-reyes-friends.html)

3. I'd like to believe Lobaton is slated to be in AAA as you suggest, but I saw way too many ABs squandered on players not even capable of staying in the majors by Saint Terry. Fortunately he's not there anymore and perhaps those who don't hit sit (as Terry often said but never did). Based upon the 7 year track record it alarms me that Lobaton has an invitation to camp, but perhaps the plan is to carry three catchers in order to let Plawecki be the right handed half of a 1B platoon. Of course, you could still do that and move Plawecki behind the dish if something happened to d'Arnaud, so there we are back again as to why this was the big offensive acquisition for Sandy Alderson...

@Herb G -- it's nice you agreed with Bill, but then your plan includes trading away one of the relievers as I suggested :)

Reese Kaplan said...

Also, Herb, they're on record saying the payroll will be LOWER than last year. I like most of your ideas but I think you may have undersold some of the contracts such as Bruce and Chacin.

Herb G said...

Reese-
mlbtraderumors predicted the 2/$14 for Chacin and 3/$36 for Bruce. Based on what's been happening, Chacin's deal may be low but maybe Bruce's could happen.