Tom Brennan - AN OPTIMIST'S VIEWPOINT: METS 2018 PITCHING
On Friday, I wrote a piece that as of the middle of last week, the Mets' 2018 offense, as it stands now, to me had appeared to have regressed somewhat (and, less optimistically, more than somewhat regressed) from the team the Mets fielded for most of last season before the great sell off of 2017 took place.
I posited that with a diminished offense, to get to the 2018 playoffs, a staff that last year produced essentially like a 55-60 win team's staff might be expected to, had to lift that caliber to at least a 90 win quality staff in 2018 to perhaps make the playoffs, and deemed such a quantum leap from 2017's pitching misery to 90 win quality in 2018 unlikely.
But is it that unlikely? Maybe not.
2017 had three exceptional pitching efforts: Jake deGrom as a starter, and Addison Reed and Jerry Blevins in the bullpen. How could 2018 optimistically be different?
Jake deGrom shouldered the burden of trying to keep the team's pitching head above water. He had a very good season, but I believe he can do better.
Noah Syndergaard barely pitched. His replacements frequently went to the mound and imploded. In 2018, he could stay healthy and contend for the Cy Young, a massive upgrade.
Matt Harvey is getting talked up by his agent Scott Boras, who is impressed already in December with his improved throwing. A full, normal off season and with free agency just ahead and the vital need to rebound in order to cash in, it is not too hard to imagine Harvey bouncing back from a disastrous 2017 (following a very serious 2016 surgery) with a very solid season.
Steve Matz - everyone expects him to be hurt...after all, this is the Mets, where everything that can go wrong seems to, but his main problem in 2017 was the same major ulnar nerve irritant that sidelined deGrom in late 2016. Both had the same nerve relocation surgery, Steve's being on August 24, 2017, earlier than Jake had his surgery in 2016. And deGrom returned from his surgery extremely well last season.
Optimistically, I do not see why Steve can't also be healthy and have a big rebound season. This is, after all, the guy who won something like 9 of his first 10 major league career decisions a few years ago.
The 5th rotation spot - Zach Wheeler's return season sputtered and ended with a (thankfully) non-surgical injury...optimistically, he could return to at least #5 starter quality in 2018. If not him, Robert Gsellman was very shaky as a sophomore for most of 2017 but improved late, and Seth Lugo pitched like a decent #5 by and large. Either of those 2 realistically could be viable SP 5's.
The very under-experienced Chris Flexen was mostly awful when thrown into the major league fire in 2017, but had to have learned a lot, and could be a truly viable #5 with AAA seasoning for say 10-12 starts at the beginning of 2018.
Rafael Montero may, under a pitching-savvy manager and a new pitching coach, figure out a way to be a viable spot starter and reliever in 2018, as he had glimpses in 2017 of having the ability, but the performance had too many bad spots amidst the good.
Lastly, Corey Oswalt was excellent as a starter in AA all last season and represents an SP 5 alternative for these Mets in 2018.
The bullpen of Jeurys Familia, AJ Ramos, Jerry Blevins and Anthony Swarzak looks far better than last year's injury-riddled model. Add in a now-seasoned Paul Sewald, a very possibly new and improved Josh Smoker, and many decent choices after all the trades last year, and fireballing homegrown Tyler Bashlor entering 2018 much closer to the majors, and the pen looks above average (and with viable back up options) after last year's overall poor performance.
Optimistically, therefore, the 2018 staff, as now formulated, could be drastically better than last year's 5.02 ERA disaster, perhaps good enough to put up a 3.50 to 3.75 ERA in 2018....especially pitching many times to a gutted Marlins offensive team representing far less of a challenge to Mets' pitchers than in 2017.
We can only hope. I like to be optimistic, but this team makes it all too hard. I will try at least with the pitchers, as portrayed above, to be optimistic.
Maybe "S..t Happens" won't be the Mets' slogan for 2018 - for a change, that would be nice.
Maybe "S..t Happens" won't be the Mets' slogan for 2018 - for a change, that would be nice.
18 comments:
It's refreshing to see the Bluebird of Optimism make an all-too-rare appearance here. I couldn't agree more with you about all of this.
Bill, the pitching was brutalized in 2017. Just returning to a normal injury scenario on 2018 should improve the team's runs allowed by 200 runs, give or take. The sky isn't always falling. I am at least cautiously optimistic that our pitching comes back with a vengeance in 2018.
The improved pen (healthy Familia, adding Swarzak and having a full season of Ramos) will help, too. And Lugo, Wheeler and Gsellman may join them. I'd still like to see the return of Reed, too.
Reed's return would be great. And of course some of the acquired pen arms that may start the year in AAA have to be better than some they were forced to call up in 2017.
I also see Flexen and Oswalt as unproven yet huge upgrades over milone and pill. So better depth IF more guys ahead of them in depth chart can stay healthy
I went back and looked at the results of the 2017 season.
I determined the amount of games we would have won if we gave up less than 4 runs in a game, while at the same time, scored the same we did in that game.
Two examples...
On April 7 we lost 7-2 to Miami. If the Marlins scored 4 runs, we still would have lost.
On April 2t we lost to the Braves 7-5. We would have won this game with 5 runs scored.
There were a bunch of games that we lost scoring only 4 runs. I didn't add this in here bucause, according to my formula, this game could have been tied 4-4 after 9 innings.
It's 12 games.
(also... you would be shocked at the number of games we lost and we scored 4 runs in each of those games... at least 15 more. Get that ERA below 4 and the potential here was over 27 more wins.)
Ernest, hope all is well with you in Sunny Florida.
I agree that Flexen and Oswalt definitely > Milone and Pill. When you are pitching the likes of Milone and Pill, you know you are in trouble.
Mack, great points. of course, you could take it one further step...if we are in a playoff race, we do not play the likes of Taijeron and other marginal wannabes down the stretch. Playing those likely added a few losses too.
Not playing veterans on expiring contracts and seeing what you had with younger ballplayers would perhaps have helped clarify the muddy situation in which the team finds itself right now. It was, after all, critically important to see more Reyes and more Aoki day after day.
Thanks for this post it makes me feel so good as a Met fan ..I truly appreciate it.I kinda look at life like this trying to make the best of it no sense getting down for what could possibly happen for the better.I think the hiring of our manager goes a long way to achieving these goals so we had a good start from that standpoint.
Rene, thanks for your comments, and lets hope the glass is not half full in 2018 - let's hope it is right to the brim. I greatly hope Callaway and his new pitching coach will far surpass the duo of Collins and Warthen at getting the most out of the team's pitchers.
When the staff was healthy in '16, we went to the WC game. A year earlier, to the WS.
Comparing Callaway/Eiland with the results of '17 isn't quite fair. If the new duo beats the results of the 2 prior years, everyone here will be ecstatic.
Mr. Cherry Picker is at it again...compare Callaway/Eiland to the last 7 years in aggregate to judge how well they do compared to their predecessors -- you know, the losingest manager in team history.
Good article, Tom.
I think just being healthy would improve the staff immensely.
The key question is will the pitching staff's improvement be offset by a less potent offense?
I think they will be in the WC conversation, but catching the Nats in 2018 may be asking a bit too much.
Mike, maybe the Nats break down this year instead. Re-signing Bruce would go a long way to making the offense as potent as 2017's.
Of course the pitchers they had to work with are irrelevant, right? A good PC/mgr must make tasty chicken soup out of chicken shit. 😡
Good question, Mike, but why should the Offense be less potent, if healthy? A full season of Yo, and almost one of 4to, can make up for Bruce's departure, and Grandy's. We got little out of Walker and Duda last year, and Grandy gave us HRs but little else. I look for more production out of our Catchers, and hopefully from whomever we get for 2B or 3B before ST.
I think the offense is about 5 wins short of last year's right now - add a Bruce and we're back to even. "Even" on the offense, and much improved pitching and I see us in the mid 80's in wins, hopefully better.
Post a Comment