12/2/17

Reese Kaplan -- Stunning Stats From an Unknown


Last month I penned a piece on Japanese relievers worth the Mets' consideration to help fortify their pen.  Most of the names are relatively unknown here and that's understandable having spent their entire careers nearly 6000 miles from the USA.

However, in addition to native Japanese ballplayers, many clubs over there employ a few gaijin -- non-native players born elsewhere.  Many lesser known American ballplayers have gone onto huge stardom there.  Many have heard the exploits of people like Tuffy Rhodes and Leron Lee.  Most recently Eric Thames migrated back to the USA while crushing Korean baseball.  I've even previously dredged up the name of former Rockies slugger Wilin Rosario who during this two years in Korea has produced slash lines of .321/33/120 and .339/37/110.

It is in that vein that I suggest the Mets might want to explore the addition of expatriate Dennis Sarfarte who has been plying his trade in the bullpens of Hiroshima, Seibu and Fukuoka since 2011.  Going into his age 37 season he would likely not command a huge contract but he's only getting better each year.


How good has be been?  I'm glad you asked!

In his WORST season in Japan he delivered a 2-5 record with a 2.90 ERA and a mediocre WHIP of 1.349 though he did still strike out nearly 1 batter per inning pitched.

Throw out that outlier year (which is hardly awful) and the rest of his Japanese career has been eye popping.  He's thrown 377 innings over 374 games during which he produced a cumulative 24-15 record, notched 220 saves, struck out 521 (look back at the IP number!) and walked just 97 (a better than 5:1 K:BB ratio).  His ERA over the span is just 1.39 and his WHIP is an unworldly 0.835.

As I said, he's improving with age.  During his age 36 season just concluded he delivered a 2-2 record with a 1.09 ERA, 54 saves over 66 IP with 102 Ks and just 10 walks for a WHIP of 0.667.  Wow!

Methinks you might want to send him a care package from Shake Shack as a break from the seaweed and sushi to entice him to relocate to Queens for the last couple of years of his career.  As a parallel I drew in that article, Koji Uehara is another pitcher who came here late in baseball life but didn't miss a beat.


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I combed through the non-tender list looking for a Justin Turner (sorry, I know that hurts).  There were two pitchers who stood out to me.

31 year old righty Jared Hughes who spent most of his career with the Pirates was released by the Brewers today. He was only earning $667K last year but projected to get $2.2 million in arbitration.  (And people call the Wilpons cheap!)  For his career as a middle reliever he has a 20-16 records with a an ERA of just 2.85.  It's not as if he's a one-year flash in the pan.  He has already appeared in 380 major league games.  He's not a big K guy but results are results.  He throws a 93 mph sinker effectively.  I'd certainly feel better about him than I would about Hansel Robles or Josh Smoker.

26 year old righty Shae Simmons, like the Mets, had a highly forgettable 2017 campaign.  However, his career minor league numbers are pretty staggering.  Like many hard throwers, control has been his Achilles heel, but over 5 minor league seasons he has pitched to a 2.06 ERA and delivers 12.6 Ks per 9 IP.  Unfortunately he also gives up 4.6 BBs per 9 IP.  He's pretty much unhittable, having given up just 88 hits in 131 IP while only yielding just a single HR.  He definitely sounds like a project for Dave Eiland and Mickey Callaway to improve.  He's had some injury history in the past but was only earning $700K last year so he might be a worthy gamble.

15 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

Some very fine dumpster diving. A must-read for Sandy and his crew.

Mack Ade said...

Nice Saturday reading...

Go Clemson!

Tom Brennan said...

Mack, your Clemson comment is interesting. I figured you meant college football, googled it, and was correct. It made me realize: this year, I have not followed college football for one second, had no idea which teams were good, and couldn't name a single college player. Shocked me. That is a risk Sandy and Wilpons take - that certain fans may just tune them out completely if the product is somehow not compelling. If the Yanks get Ohtani, the only Yank fan tuning them out would have to be one who is in a vegetative state.

Mack Ade said...

Tom -

I'm a rabid Clemson Dad. My daughter and two of my grandchildren go there every year for the spring game.

bill metsiac said...

I like the stats you posted on washed-up MLers going there and becoming stars. This bolsters my feeling that the Asian leagues are AAA at best.

Does anyone remember a Japanese position player becoming a star here? The only ones I can think of are Ichiro and Hideki Matsui.

Reese Kaplan said...

The article was about pitchers and I cited Koji Uehara as the closest parallel to Sarfarte. He's been spectacular since arriving.

Tom Brennan said...

Kaz Matsui was another huge star!! Kidding aside, he was a decent player - hit over .270 before his last season plus of decline - and was a solid fielder and added a real element of speed, what with 102 steals in 120 attempts - 85% is pretty terrific.

Mack - go Clemson.

Tom Brennan said...

To Reese's point, Uehara has done great - Tanaka if not for the tear would probably be one of the game's best - and of course, who can forget the Yankee Toad?

Mack Ade said...

We welcome Josh Smoker as a reader of Mack's Mets

Tom Brennan said...

Josh Smoker, welcome, and I had read you refined another pitch last year that basically seemed to really help you - it resulted in your allowing just 3 games with 1 earned run in your last 20+ outings of 2017, Hopefully that success will carry over into spring training and beyond.

bill metsiac said...

Yes, it was about pitchers. But your 2nd paragraph about hitters re-inforces my position re:hitters.

Mack Ade said...

Tom -

A pitcher can not have enough ++ pitches

bill metsiac said...

Welcome, Josh. I hope to see your comments here and to see you on the mound at Citi! 👍

Reese Kaplan said...

Josh, I hope the new pitching experts hired can help you master your control. If so, then great things will happen.

Herb G said...

Great piece, Reese. Sarfarte sounds interesting, but I can't seem to find anything about him. Is he coming home as a free agent? Has he ever pitched professionally in the USA?

Shae Simmons seems like a worthwhile risk. Actually, he only earned $536,200 last year and is projected to get $700K in his first time through arbitration this year. His minor league performance prior to missing all of 2015 was very impressive. It appears that he hasn't looked the same afterwards, with relatively few innings pitched in either year, but that could be deceiving since his advanced metrics seem to belie the high ERA. His adjusted FIP of 83 is telling. And your statement that "He's pretty much unhittable" is borne out by his relatively low WHIP despite the high BB/9, and an exceptionally low babip of .247, indicating weak contact when batters actually do make contact.