12/14/17

Mack - The 3-Year Potential of The Mets Pipeline


Good morning.


There seems to be a fair amount of discussion as to whether the Mets pipeline is currently deep enough to produce a steady amount of talent each year in Flushing. I’ll give you this… it’s been deeper in the past, but it’s not as bad as some of you think.

First, an opening statement. I, as many are, am never always right about projecting minor league talent. I never thought Kevin Plawecki, Juan Lagares, or even Wilmer Flores would ever get this far. They have proven me wrong.

I happen to believe that the Mets biggest problem right now is the fact that their current 25-man squad wouldn’t be competitive in 2018. They need to fill in some holes there, at least until some of the prospects make their way to Queens.

I like to create a ranked prospect list, but I rarely go above naming the top 20. Below that is only guesswork. Most of those players still need more development in all aspects of their game.

Lastly, I already have the ageless RP Josh Smoker and RP Jamie Callahan on my 25-man squad so they won’t be covered in this list.

Now, if you seriously want to try and determine who on the farm can help you, you can’t look past players that wouldn’t be able to do that if they weren’t ready in either 2018 or 2019. The rest is still for dreamers.

So, what does 2018 look like?

A little lean. 

1B Dominic Smith and SS Amed Rosario already arrived last year. So did SP Chris Flexen who was sent up as an emergency starter. I expect him to open up in the Las Vegas rotation, but could be called back if he dominates there (good luck with that!). Past that, RP Jacob Rhame may be the other player to graduate next year.

But here’s why I have said that next season is a rebounding year. SP Corey Oswalt, RP Drew Smith, 2B Luis Guillorme, and OF Kevin Kaczmarski look like a shoe-in to be added to the 2019 25-man squad.

And it may not end here. Others that could make the grade are SP Marcos Molina, RP Tim Peterson, C Tomas Nido, and 3B David Thompson.

Sure, probably not all of these guys will star, but what if they did? This would represent close to 50% of the future 2019 25-man squad.

And, the following season (2020) would deliver possibly eight more SPs (Jordan Humphreys Thomas Szapucki, Anthony Kay, David Peterson, Harol Gonzalez, Nabil Crismatt, Mickey Jannis, Thomas McIlraith), four projected ++ relievers (Tyler Bashlor, Gerson Bautista, Adonis Uceta, Adam Atkins), catcher Patrick Mazeika, 1B Peter Alonso, and SS Andres Gimenez).

So I ask you…

Is the Mets pipeline currently weak or is it set up for long term success starting in 2019?

And can we truly say that some the guys on the cusp will really become a star in this business? 

Well, check out this comparison between two pitchers that had almost identical stats in 2016:




10 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

We need a Robbie Ray in 2017.

Contrary to you, I thought Plawecki and Lagares would both hit better than they have, and I still think Wilmer has an eye-popping offensive year (Jeff Kent style) in his future.

I think the system is deemed weak FOR 2018 but has some real valuable pieces for 2019 and 2020. And I do not think the 2017 draft was a good one, so the pipeline is shaky beyond 2020 as of right now.

An article I am doing tomorrow looks at guys the Mets have and what sort of team you'd find them on. With Kaczmarski, for example, I do also think he will make the majors, but he (due to his lack of power) is the kind of player 60-70 win teams have on their roster...teams winning 90 games don't, they have better caliber players.

Tom Brennan said...

We need a Robbie Ray in 2018, I meant to say.

Anonymous said...

It’s not bad. Most of these guys need another good season under their belts to catapult the Mets back into the top 10 in Minor league prospect rankings.

I would trade most them though this offseason and build us a top NL East team.

Trade Smith, Gimenez, Peterson, Nido, Humphreys, Plawecki and Nimmo for Yelich and Realmuto.

Then sign Hosmer for 10 year 180 million contract.

I think this way we would be set at every position for the next 3 years except 3rd base.

Zozo

Tom Brennan said...

Zozo with bold thinking - like it - not sure what it would take to get Yelich and Realmuto (would it take all that?) but sure, I'd consider it.

Zozo said...

Better to overpay when making a Fantasy trade on the internet so you don’t get ripped to shreds as to why the other team won’t do it.

We would be set for next 4 years on offense and can build you prospects back up. Imagine this lineup

Rosario
Yellich
Hosmer
Cespedes
Conforto
Realmuto
Flores/ Guillorme/ TJ
Cabrera/ Flores/ Thompson/ Vientos

Now that’s a well oiled machine to go to battle with for next 4 years.

Tom Brennan said...

Zozo, excellent line up. Makes sense to me.

Unknown said...

I love it but we ALL know it won't happen because the word BOLD in not in their vocabulary. Hearing SA blabber on about all the things he's working and nothing much happens we yawn and can only dream about getting a Stanton or Machado or Yelich and it's very sad.

bgreg98180 said...

3 more years of waiting for the pipeline?

How many times do fans have to call for the empty promises?
12 years now..... just wait.... the front office knows what it is doing.... just be patient....

2 front offices later..... 1 1/2 solid years of contention surrounded by mediocrity and substandard performances.

I don't even need World Series titles. Just being able to have faith that the Mets would annually be in contention would be fulfilling

Herb G said...

Mack-
Glad to see you recognize the potential of Drew Smith. He may need another full year of seasoning at AAA, but he looks like a future winner. I can't imagine why MLB doesn't have him in their list of the Mets top 30 prospects.

Oswalt is a good pick for possible call up this year. I fear Guillorme and Kaczmarski may have to wait for September, if at all. (Did the latest players agreement change the rules for September call ups?)

TexasGusCC said...

Thomas, agree with every word. And I love Zozo’s idea, but with those gutless Bozos in the Front Office...