8/10/20

Reese Kaplan -- Will 2021's Rotation Be Filled With Flexens?

Can anyone here name the Mets starting rotation when the 2021 season ostensibly begins in April next year?  Obviously Jacob deGrom is at the top of it, followed by...Steven Matz?  Remember, if you pencil it in right now, that’s about all you have.  Noah Syndergaard is not going to be ready to start from his rehab in April.  Rick Porcello and oft injured Michael Wacha are on short term deals and need to show more consistency before the club would be inclined to give either or both of them another short term deal.  Currently injured Marcus Stroman likely wants to see what he’s worth as a free agent.  The cupboard is pretty barren.


Right now David Peterson is being auditioned to perform as a starter probably a bit ahead of both schedule and expectation.  Thus far he’s been a pleasant surprise and is looking like he might be able to handle one of the roles.  


Don’t get me wrong.  He has looked better in the majors than he did in the minors.  The big lefty came out of the University of Oregon and his first three appearances in 2017 had to make the club feel good as he finished with a 2.45 ERA over three abbreviated starts.  Then when he followed that performance up with a 22 start sophomore season during which he pitched to a very respectable 3.16 ERA with a 7-10 record and a nearly 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio.  Things were looking good indeed.


Unfortunately his advancement to AA was not as impressive.  The 24 starts saw his ERA rise by a full run to 4.19.  His ratio of strikeouts to walks dropped by a full run to about 3:1.  His WHIP jumped significantly, too.  The big positive was his strikeout performance was better than one per inning pitched, an increase over the previous tally and suggested that perhaps he was adjusting to how he was throwing harder and/or more effectively to fan hitters.


As a 24-year old you’d expect he would have headed to AAA with perhaps a late season call up to the majors, but with the elimination of the minor league seasons and the late start to what’s happening in the majors it changed the picture significantly.  Then when Stroman headed to the IL, Peterson found himself thrust from AA’s decent but unspectacular metrics to a role in the major league starting rotation.  


Thus far Peterson is pitching to a 3.78 ERA with a winning record of 2-1 in his three starts.  His strikeout numbers are down a bit and the walks up a bit, but the WHIP is lower than he showed in AA.  Many people are already writing his name in ink for 2021.  Given the dearth of other options that’s not necessary a bad idea.  He’d cost major league minimum which is quite a savings over the import duo set to hit free agency again.  



There are other options for the 2021 rotation internally.  Franklyn Kilome should be 100% healthy once again. So too should Thomas Szapucki.  Both have potential as major league starters with one good session in the minors before surgery for Kilome and several good seasons for Szapucki.  The problem here is that other Mets minor league starters dominated as they worked their way up the ladder, including Chris Flexen, Corey Oswalt and others, but couldn’t turn the corner at the major league level.  Consequently there may need to be trades or free agent signings made to fill out the rest of the starting quintet.  


Given Syndergaard’s return halfway through the year in his free agent audition season, they may want to go the route of reclamation projects or unproven kids as a stopgap.  For now, things are looking a bit sketchy for that starting rotation next year.  It becomes doubly so under the Wilpons if they’re still here. 


5 comments:

bill metsiac said...

Why not take things one year at a time? Let's see how the current 6 SPs work out and how interested the FAs-to-be are in returning. We know that Stroman has said more than once that he likes it here and that should create favorable negotiations.

Thor will be back at some point (he says OD, though it's probably later). Peterson looks good so far, and Wacha/Porcello are one year at a time guys.

And many other teams will have FAs to look at, plus trade possibilities. We have a surplus in the IF, which can help if trades are needed.

But again, it's much too soon to decide on next year's rotation, or next year's anything. Let's see how things look in October and go from there.

Tom Brennan said...

Bill makes good points - we play 2020 out to see what makes sense in 2021. Rights now, I am down on Steve Matz. His is a tale of 2 careers - the great start in his rookie campaign and early in his second year. And his erratic, subpar pitching ever since. Maybe he figures it out. Zack Wheeler, to my recollection, stunk early in 2018 and then became the Wheeler we are seeing now.

Kilome looked good in his brief cameo - but Matz looked great early too. And Reese, you made great points on Flexen and Oswalt - heck add in Sewald and others - guys who did well in the upper minors and awful in the MLB.

Szapucki? Stuck in a time warp in Brooklyn, so who knows. Etc. Time will tell, and decisions will be made accordingly.

Mack Ade said...

I don't look for 2021 being known as the year of Mets starters. That year will come in 2024.

I agree that deGrom and Matz are set and I would pencil in Peterson at this point. It is so pleasant to see a Mets starter do poorly in the minors but great in the majors. Nice reversal here.

I would give Seth Lugo the chance to prove that he is more valuable as a starter.

Lastly, I would consider offering Stroman another one year contract or turn to the free agent market for our 5th starter. The quality of that starter will probably be based on who our owner is.

Tom Brennan said...

Mack, that is why the Mets have to be so hopeful that Edwin Diaz resurrects himself as a closer. I think in 2018, as Seattle's closer, hitters batted just .134 against him. He will have his flaws, but if he can be mostly great, that works.

Then Lugo can start.

bill metsiac said...

Our IF has JDD looking like David, Rosario playing well and Cano leading the team in hitting pre-injury (and under contract for years to come). It's tough as is to get enough playing time for Gimenez, and Mauricoo is on the way.

If necessary, Rosario can be dealt for pitching, but again it's too soon to project.