Mack - Random Thoughts - 2021 Arms, Top 15 Mets Prospects

 

Good morning. 

1. Everyone knows two things about the Mets top five prospects (Alvarez, Baty, Mauricio, Vientos, Allan)… one, the Mets will continue to develop them in 2022 and, two, none of them will probably be traded off.

 Past that is all speculation, but I want you to keep a close watch on the pitching crop added to this team during the 2021 draft… Carson Seymour, Christian Scott, Dominic Hamel, Mike Vasil, Calvin Ziegler… these were all highly talented Friday or Saturday starters for their college team or the SP1 for their high school (Ziegler). 

My prediction here is, at least, two of these RHPs will emerge as top Mets prospects in 2023. 

 

2. I was asked this past week to jot down my thoughts on who are the top 20 Mets prospects and who are the long shots we should look out for. 

Here are my top 10 and one to keep a watch on. 

Here goes: 

1.       C    Francisco Alvarez

Scouting grades: Hit: 60 | Power: 65 | Run: 40 | Arm: 60 | Field: 50 | Overall: 60 

Álvarez was ranked as MLB Pipeline’s No. 13 international prospect during the 2018-19 signing period, and the Venezuela native signed with the Mets for $2.7 million that July. The hype continued at Rookie-level Kingsport and the alternate training site in 2019 and 2020, respectively. Álvarez’s stock rocketed again this past season, when he moved up from Low-A St. Lucie after only 15 games and finished at High-A Brooklyn with a .247/.351/.538 line over 333 plate appearances. 

Mack - Everybody is in agreement that Alvy is the top Mets prospects and could be the top prospect in baseball prior to the 2023 season. 

I hope the Mets are patient and allow him to work on his defense this season in both Binghamton and Syracuse.

 

2.      3B   Brett Baty 

Scouting grades: Hit: 60 | Power: 60 | Run: 45 | Arm: 60 | Field: 50 | Overall: 55 

Baty’s age at 19 might have been the only thing that allowed him to slip to the Mets at No. 12 overall in the 2019 Draft. He quickly got to work across three affiliates that first summer, finishing with a trophy-raising turn with Class A Short Season Brooklyn. He returned to Coney Island for the alternate site in 2020 and played once more with the Cyclones as a High-A affiliate last summer. He hit .292/.382/.473 with 12 homers at High-A and Double-A and picked up more at-bats in the Arizona Fall League. 

Mack - Baty will be the starting third baseman for the Mets, possibly as early as opening day 2023. My guess this won’t happen until sometime in 2024, but that’s just me.

 

3.      3B/RF/DH    Mark Vientos 

Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 60 | Run: 35 | Arm: 60 | Field: 45 | Overall: 50 

The Mets took a 17-year-old, bat-first shortstop in Vientos in the second round of the 2017 Draft. After signing him for $1.5 million, the organization put him on the slow road with stops at Rookie-level Kingsport in 2018 and Class A Columbia in 2019. He showed classic signs of a power bat waiting to bloom before the 2020 pandemic forced him to continue his progress at the alternate training site and fall instructs. His big breakout came at last in 2021, when he hit .281/.352/.581 with 25 homers over 83 games at Double-A and Triple-A, and he was added to the 40-man roster as a result. 

Mack - Vientos will be major league ready on opening day 2023. The question is where he will  play. My guess is that the Mets will continue to attempt to develop his defensive game in the outfield. If that doesn’t work, he could do a short stint at third next season, become the Mets’ DH, or be used as trade bait to secure top talent at another position.

 

4.      SS/??    Ronny Mauricio 

Scouting grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 60 | Run: 45 | Arm: 60 | Field: 50 | Overall: 55 

The Dominican Republic native was ranked as MLB Pipeline’s No. 11 international prospect during the 2017-18 signing period, and he signed for $2.1 million that July. Mauricio looked toolsy but raw in his opening turns at Rookie-level Kingsport and Class A Columbia. After experiencing the alternate training site in 2020, Mauricio saw his power projection turn into performance when he crossed the 20-homer threshold for the first time last season. He struggled to put up other impressive offensive numbers (a .242 average and .290 OBP at High-A Brooklyn), but the Mets did reward him with a short trip to Double-A and a 40-man roster spot. 

Mack - Another top Mets prospect without a position, his best is where someone else is signed to play forever. His power is coming along fine and the Mets need to start playing him in the outfield or look for Mauricio to be shipped out someday.

 

5.      RHP    Matt Allan 

Scouting grades: Fastball: 65 | Curveball: 60 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 50 | Overall: 50 

Ranked as MLB Pipeline’s No. 13 Draft prospect in 2019, Allan became one of the most interesting follows of that process. He had a strong commitment to the University of Florida and a high asking price (reportedly $4 million), causing teams to look elsewhere in the early rounds. The Mets decided to pounce in the third and worked Draft mechanics (mostly by going heavy on college seniors later) to sign Allan for $2.5 million, roughly four times his slot value. The Florida native was an alternate training site standout in 2020 and was set to let loose on a full season in the Minors before tearing the UCL in his right elbow. He underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2021 and needed another procedure this offseason to transpose his ulnar collateral nerve. He is expected to return to pitching around midseason 2022. 

Mack - In simple terms, the Mets need to show patience here. Allan is a huge talent, pre-TJS, and the hope is me will come back even stronger. Wasn’t good news to here he went down again. ETA probably 2026 now.

 

6.      OF     Alexander Ramirez 

Scouting grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 55 | Run: 55 | Arm: 55 | Field: 55 | Overall: 50 

The Mets used their highest bonus of the 2019-20 international period on Ramirez (MLB Pipeline’s No. 26 prospect in that class) by signing him for $2.05 million. The Dominican outfielder has been moved about as aggressively as a player in that Draft class could, going from instructional league play in 2020 straight to Low-A St. Lucie as an 18-year-old in 2021. Ramirez hit .258/.326/.384 with five homers in 16 steals over 76 games in his first taste of full-season (or any Minor League) action. 

Mack - Alex had a remarkable 2021 on Low-A and the hopes is his offense will grow in 2022 for St. Lucie. Definitely will be in Queens on OD 2025.

 

7.      RHP    Calvin Ziegler 

Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 50 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 45 | Overall: 45 

Ziegler was technically Draft-eligible as a 17-year-old out of Ontario in 2020, but the pandemic shutdown, combined with the shorter Draft process, kicked his selection down the road by one year. The 6-foot right-hander headed south to TNXL Academy in Ocoee, Florida to improve his 2021 stock, while still occasionally heading home, and that worked out when the Mets selected him in the second round. Ziegler signed for a below-slot $900,000 bonus and still awaits his Minor League debut. 

Mack - I missed the boat on this kid. Knew nothing about him going into the draft because none of my draft sources wrote about him. Now, I have to fall back on what they are saying now. Could be the steal of the draft. Starting in St. Lucie in 2022.

 

8.      RHP  Dominic Hamel 

Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45 

Hamel was Draft-eligible four times out of an Arizona high school, Yavapai (Ariz.) Junior College and his first year at Dallas Baptist. The fifth time was the charm after he set a DBU record with 136 strikeouts in 91 2/3 innings as a senior. The Mets selected the right-hander in the third round and signed him for exact slot value at $755,300. After such a full spring, Hamel made two abbreviated starts in the Rookie-level Florida Complex League, striking out seven without walking any of the nine batters he faced. 

Mack - I always liked Hamil in college and was pleasantly surprised when they called out his name in the 3^rd round for the Mets. I said this last year and I’ll say it again now… Hamil is going to be a low rotation stalwart for this team someday.

 

9.      RHP   Mike Vasil 

Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 55 | Overall: 40 

There was talk of Vasil going high in the 2018 Draft out of Boston College High School, but after suffering an arm injury, he told clubs that he was planning to head to the University of Virginia. He put up rough numbers as a freshman with the Cavaliers, seemed to rebound in 2020 before the shutdown and was inconsistent in his junior spring. He finished that final season with a 4.52 ERA and 73 strikeouts in 81 2/3 innings. Despite being MLB Pipeline’s No. 111 Draft prospect last summer, Vasil fell to the eighth round and signed with the Mets for exact slot at $181,200. 

Mack - Another pleasant surprise on draft day, Vasil has increased his fastball velocity 5-6 ticks since becoming a Met. May wind up more successful  than Hamil.

 

10.    RHP   Joel Diaz 

Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 50 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45 

The Mets didn’t ink any of the big names or spend big money on Jan. 15, 2021, but if there was one new prospect the player development staff was most eager to see, it was Diaz. The 6-foot-2 right-hander backed up that excitement with one of the best statistical Minor League pitching performances of the year, sporting a 0.54 ERA (making him the only MiLB qualifier with a mark below 1.00) while striking out 63 and walking only nine over 50 1/3 innings in the Dominican Summer League. Since 2010, only Sixto Sánchez (0.50) has posted a lower qualified ERA in his age-17 season. 

Mack - A real pleasant surprise in 2021. Needs to back that up with a repeat this season stateside.

 

Helium Alert - SS  Kevin Villavicencio 

Mack - Debuted in 2021 for the DSL team (17-yrs.) and impressed with a stat line of .303/.313/.414/.787. Don’t look for power here. Just bat to field skills and excellent defense.

Should play for the GCL Mets in 2022.