Reese Kaplan -- Current & Long Term Starting Pitching Questions

One of the things people are enjoying with the Mets this year is the mostly good pitching and often timely hitting.  The end result before games begin on Sunday is an 11-5 record which has the Mets atop the NL East and 4 games ahead of the 7-9 Atlanta Braves.  While things are going well, obviously there are areas for improvement and people who need to either step up or return to health to make it even better.  

It's been a long time since Mets fans and New York media was able to feel the positivity and power that comes from being number one in your division.  There were other impressive Mets teams in 1986 and 1969, but other post season contenders seemed to fight their way into that position along the way.  Being the one others struggle to catch right from the first two plus weeks into the season is good for your ego but it also sets some pretty high expectations.

Obviously the starting pitching has flourished the vast majority of the time.  No one is going to put much weight into Trevor Williams' struggles on Saturday night any more than they will the first game in which the opposition scored some runs off Max Scherzer.  Williams was an emergency starter after the doubleheader earlier in the week and the Mets do have alternative available.  Recently demoted David Peterson probably was victimized more by his option availability than any ineffectiveness.  You generally wouldn't expect to get a ride to Syracuse based upon a 0.64 ERA performance.  

Right now the Mets with a 2.20 ERA from their starters entering Saturday's play need to create space for the returning Taijuan Walker.  In the interim, the Mets sent Peterson down and promoted right hander Adonis Medina who fanned all three batters he faced in his thus far single inning of pitching at the major league level.  

Just like Peterson, Medina has to be asking himself what went wrong as he too was dispatched back to Syracuse to bring up 9.82 ERA thrower Yoan Lopez.  It may simply be they wanted a fresh arm but the former Diamondback must have his old teammates drooling over the chance to face him.  

Buck Showalter has already stated he expects Peterson to be back on May 3rd so the trip upstate is a temporary one as Peterson has definitely earned more innings (particularly being the only lefty when he was in the starting rotation).  

Where it becomes a bit more complicated is when Jacob deGrom returns in addition to Taijuan Walker.  Obviously deGrom takes his rightful place at the head of the rotation.  Walker's status is a bit less rock solid as he was two different kinds of pitcher during 2021.  Now with additional health problems getting in the way of his ability to perform regularly, the Mets need to decide what his role is both now and in the future.  

Right now Walker earns a rather modest $7 million salary with the player holding an option for a $6 million return in 2023.  If he has a shortened season due to injury, it's possible he would invoke it but if he pitches regularly with success he may want to see how as a free agent he could sell himself for significantly more.  His career ERA is 3.96 and in these days of accepted performance from starting hurlers he would easily double that salary on the open market. 

What Billy Eppler and the rest of the front office need to decide (along with input from Buck Showalter and Jeremy Hefner) is what Walker means to the Mets and what value he deserves.  If they feel injuries are over, then they may want to look at extending his contract at a higher salary.  If they fear additional injuries to Jacob deGrom or a free agency departure by Chris Bassitt then they might accept the uncertain package that Walker represents.

However, if they've been sufficiently impressed by David Peterson and/or Tylor Megill, then they may feel an expensive investment in a player with a low number of innings on his resume is simply not good business.  In that case they may look to dangle Walker at the July trading deadline to ensure some kind of return for him rather than losing him for nothing at year's end.

Currently with the state of health of the rotation it is premature to make a definitive decision, but performance of all of the aforementioned starting pitchers is something to watch extremely closely as the month of July begins.  Obviously the team is demonstrating that there's never such a thing as too much pitching, but baseball is inevitably a profit-making business.  As such, sometimes personnel decisions have more to do with what's more of a sure thing finance-wise than prospective help would contribute to winning games.  If I was Taijuan Walker I wouldn't take out any long term leases.