Reese Kaplan -- Maybe Brodie Got One Deal Right After All

One of the great exercises that happens organically over a long period of time is the debate over the pros and cons of baseball transactions.  When they happen a thick, impenetrable line is formed between the two sides with one group reaching for champagne and noisemakers while the other side is Google searching the cost of pitchforks and lighter fluid.  It doesn't matter if it's veteran for veteran, kids for kids, or a mix of veterans and kids.  It's that latter type of trade that causes the most high hopes and chronic consternation.  We all kind of know what to expect from veterans (and the cost it requires to acquire and pay them) but we are not as clear on the images in our crystal ball about how proficient the kids will turn out to be.

This topic has arisen quite a bit lately as people are revisiting the infamous 2019 trade done between the Mets and the Mariners to bring superstars Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz to New York in exchange for a mix of outfielder Jay Bruce, pitcher Anthony Swarzak, pitcher Gerson Bautista, plus kid pitcher Justin Dunn and kid slugger Jarred Kelenic.  Along with the two successful veterans, the Mets received some money from Seattle to help offset the remaining salary obligation for Cano who would be with them for his ages 36 through age 40 seasons.  

On the surface, this one seemed to be a case where no one was doing cartwheels.  It was obvious that rookie GM Brodie Van Wagenen was playing with former clients who he knew well and many felt the Mets were giving up way too much in the way of minor league talent to make this deal happen.  Lost in the shuffle a bit was the salary relief of getting rid of Jay Bruce who'd worn out his welcome and Anthony Swarzak who was never the level of pitcher they'd hoped he'd be.  

To be fair to the "you can't give away the kids" crowd, Justin Dunn looked promising on his way up the ladder.  He started off in Brooklyn with a brief season that ended with a 1.50 ERA and his strikeout numbers were averaging better than one per inning pitched.  There were some ups and downs with control but it appeared he showed the ability to fan hitters at will.  

The bigger hesitations, protests and screaming-until-you're-hoarse condemnation came from the folks who envisioned Jarred Kelenic as the next Pete Alonso.  He was in their eyes the cannot miss type of superstar in the making and was way too high a price to pay no matter who was coming back to the Mets.  In his minor league career which in aggregate of nearly 900 ABs is roughly the equivalent of two full seasons of activity, he put up some impressive numbers.  He hit .294 with 38 HRs and 138 RBIs.  Split in half that's still 19 HRs and 69 RBIs per year which for a young player is noteworthy.  His 183 strikeouts were not unreasonable considering some power hitters do more than that in a single season.

Since then nothing has unfolded the way anyone predicted.  Starting on the Mets side, Edwin Diaz was nothing like the shutdown All Star reliever he had been for the Mariners.  During his first year he delivered 26 saves which is less than half of what he did during his 57 save season in Seattle.  What really hurt, however, was his 5.57 ERA with a 2-7 record.  Those numbers are not what you want nor expect from a guy entrusted to finish games.  Since then he's looked like a totally different pitcher, saving games and striking people out at a prodigious rate.

Paralleling Diaz' rough start in New York was the surprisingly harsh season performed by Robinson Cano.  For a guy who averaged .305 with 24 HRs and 96 RBIs each and every year, no one could have thought his rookie season with the Mets would result in a gut wrenching .256 with 13 HRs and 39 RBIs.  He rebounded quite well in about a 1/3 season during the shortened year of 2020 with 10 HRs and 30 RBIs while hitting .316, but he was gone for all of 2021 due to his second incitement for the use of PEDs.    

For the Mariners, well, what appeared to be a huge win for that team has not amounted to much.  Justin Dunn has been a starting pitcher who over the course of three partial seasons has sported a 5-4 record with a reasonable 3.94 ERA.  He is not striking people out at the rates he did in the minors and his control has been horrific.

Jarred Kelenic is showing he's capable of putting the ball over the fence in the majors as he did in the minors, but hitting for average has been a real Achille's heel for him.  Although he's hit 14 HRs and driven in 43, the .176 batting average is not going to play in The Show.  Bear in mind he's still just 22 years of age and didn't have as much minor league experience as many others his age.  He could improve.  He may have been rushed to help justify the cost paid to acquire him.  

The other players the Mariners acquired have pretty much faded into oblivion.  In 2019 while Cano struggled, Jay Bruce combined between the Mariners and Phillies to hit 26 HRs but only at a .216 average.  In 2020 and 2021 he was sub-Mendoza line so things were getting worse as he aged.  He retired after flaming out in The Bronx.  

Then there's Anthony Swarzak.  From 2019 through 2021 he has pitched for the Mariners, Braves, Diamondbacks and Royals.  It's not surprising he's moved around quite a bit as his numbers over that span are a 3-5 record with a 5.48 ERA and an ugly WHIP over 1.50.  No, the Mets do not miss him very much either.  

Gerson Bautista is another never-was prospect who pitched in five games to a 12.46 ERA for the Mets and in eight games to an 11.00 ERA for the Mariners.  At age 26 he's now playing ball for the Diablos Rojos in the Mexican League.  

So, trying to be somewhat objective here, as much as the pundits are all saying the Mariners fleeced the Mets, I really can't see it.  They got nothing out of the last three.  It's too soon to draw a definitive conclusion on Justin Dunn.  Jarred Kelenic is the wildcard and right now he's not carrying his weight.  After first year pains, the Mets have gotten more good than bad from both Cano and Diaz, so it would appear that at this point the winning team in this deal is in New York.