Tom Brennan - To Play for These Mets, Ya Gotta Be Better Than the Other Guy

 

Hot Prospect Mark Vientos - photo by Herm Card - Herm444@gmail.com

Nah, I'm not back, just dropping in.  Probably will still do so, from time to time.  Good to hang with friends.  Anyway...

We all remember the Wilpon Mets bringing up hitters who couldn't hit well, and calling up pitchers who couldn't pitch well.

Those were the Woeful, Whacky Wilpon days.  We got lots of marginal guys - stars like:

Eric Campbell, Danny Muno, Travis Taijeron, Matt den Dekker, Darrell Ceciliani, Ruben Tejada, Colin Cowgill, Ty Kelly, Gavin Cecchini (9 career MLB RBIs, the same number as pitcher Tony Cloninger once accumulated in a single game), and on and on.   

Fairy dust was sprinkled on these guys, but it didn't help.

All were guys who were grateful to make the majors, get a fairly (overly) lengthy stint at roughly $3,500 per game, and make some major league bucks. 

But these were not guys who'd get you into the playoffs.

Pitchers?  Just look over the past 5 years' Mets' stats lists and the marginal pitchers and their marginal performances are a-plenty.

The Mets are in a new mode now, though - winning divisions.... going deep into the playoffs...yearly.

To do that, prospects have to be truly battle-ready, and most of all...BE BETTER THAN THE OTHER GUY on the roster already.

Right now, there are no unseasoned guys making this team.  All are battle-tested.  There is a reason.

The collective goal of using tested, experienced guys is simply... 

To lose less games in 2022 than any other team in the division.

To do so, they can't afford to have 3 outfield guys go 8 for 83 with one RBI, as happened last season.  The names of the 3 are now irrelevant - it's a new season.  That underwhelming crap just can't happen.  In 2022, it won't.

So, if you are the Pounding Prospect Big Six - Mark Vientos, Carlos Cortes, Khalil Lee, Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, and Francisco Alvarez - you need to be demonstrably better than the guy in Queens whose position you are seeking.

So, the goal of those 6 fellas in 2022 is simple - tear up the minors with the bat, flash some leather, and convince the front office guys that you are better than what they already got.

Which isn't easy.  See, for instance, Jarred Kelenic circa 2021.  He seemed like he might be ready for Seattle, but he wasn't.  His not being ready likely kept Seattle out of the playoffs.

The Mets simply cannot afford that scenario if they are trying to maximize the possibility that they lose less games than every other team in the division.   Unless desperate to fill a spot due to injury, they need to pretty much KNOW the replacement guy they'd be calling up is better - which can also mean "equally good, but cheaper."  But "equally good" is what it will take.

Because the division battle is expected to be tight - no games can be frittered away.

So:

Mark Vientos?  I need to see him hitting prodigious amounts of HRs and .300 or better in AAA.  Sadly, he only got in 83 games the past two years, or he'd already be on the Mets' squad.  25 HRs in 83 games and 22 HRs in his last 58 games of 2021 are simply tremendous.  

22 HRs in 58 games = 61 HRs over 162 games.  Take the KVENTO out of his name and you are left with...MARIS.

Carlos Cortes? Hit in AAA as well as he did in his first two months of AA in 2021 - but hit even better.  An extra base hit every 8 at bats or less, and .300+ is the ticket.

Khalil Lee?  His .451 OBP in AAA was terrific, but it was inflated by getting hit by pitches a whole lot.  He needs to reduce his K rate by 1/3 to 1/5, and hit over .300, while repeating that .450 OBP with less reliance on HBP.

Brett Baty?  Utterly conquer and vanquish AA first.  Also significantly reduce the Ks.  To paraphrase Paul McCartney, "those big league dudes really strike me out."

Francisco Alvarez?  Become a PLUS fielding catcher that MLB pitchers will want to throw to, and refine his thunderous bat with at least 300 more ABs.  Gosh darn, though, his first two AA games?  A huge 3 run blast, a double that is a HR in Citifield, another double to the base of the wall in right center, and an absolute Piazza rocket just to the right of center that, if the stands didn't intrude, might have gone 475.  See you THIS YEAR, Francisco.

Ronny Mauricio?  His power really showed up in 2021, but his OBP and average must go substantially up from 2021, and his Ks must go down.  Until then, he'll remain a prospect.

Do those suggested things, though, and management will have decisions to make.

Pitchers?  

That's up to the Mets, but a key factor in poor win-loss records over the years has been the POOR collective performance of many of the marginal call-ups.  This year, unless there is a rash of injuries in Queens, pitchers will have to PROVE in the minors that they can be as successful in the majors as the guys already up there.  

If the team doesn't think you can have a < 4.00 ERA and < 1.35 WHIP, why would they want you called up and blowing games that keep them from winning the division?  

So if your control is marginal, de-marginalize it.  If you're 3rd pitch is not MLB-ready, what are you waiting for?  Fix it.   The goal is not to get on the MLB mound a few times and tell the grandkids someday - the goal is to be better than the other guy. And pitch for years.

Period.  Be Better.  Or try Baltimore instead.  You put up a 5.00 ERA there?  They'll blow you kisses and throw you a parade.  

IN THE MEANTIME:

Everyone on the MLB roster cannot be a star.  As I write this, Travis Jankowski fits that bill for the outfield.  A former latter first round pick, he has been essentially a fill-in guy in his career.  A guy's splits can be very informative of his value, as is the case with Travis, who had a bountiful first start in the OF for the Mets on Saturday night, going 2 for 3 and a walk and 2 steals - as compared to the Maybin/Lee/Almora trifecta of 2021 going 8 for 83 with a lonely 1 RBI.  He did more in one game than they did all year in 2021.

Splits?  The lefty-hitting Jankowski has a career .256/.342/.342 slash line vs. righties.  Not great you say...but in the 935 plate appearances he's had against righties, he has stolen 64 of 81, which certainly juices those numbers.  And he's score 131 runs in those 935 plate appearances, which is commendable.  He also plays an above average outfield.  

My conclusion?  He is an asset as an occasional outfield starter against righties, defensive replacement, and pinch runner.  

Against lefties, though?  A subsistent .182/.247/.230 in over 200 career plate appearances vs. southpaws...which tells me he should almost never get to hit against lefties, and certainly not intentionally.  If he is in the game already, and they switch pitchers, OK, but otherwise, he is a clear back up asset against righties, but a liability vs. lefties.

This is the kind of guy that lefty hitting Khalil Lee or righty hitting Mark Vientos, for instance, will have to be clearly better than to usurp Jankowski's place on the MLB roster.

ARMS ALARMS:

Five games into 2022, the equivalent of once through the rotation, and their #1 and #4 starters both injured, and a key bullpen piece injured.  Sound the alarms, buckle the seatbelts, it's gonna get bumpy.  If the oxygen masks drop, put yours on first.

Three wins, and 2 games blown by the pen.  David Peterson did look real good, though, on a happier note.

Was the Joely for Miguel trade a bad one?  I have this sneaking suspicion....

Lastly, just 5 games (or less) into 2022 for all MLB teams - and none are undefeated.  Amazing.