The Mack Attack - 2-11-9

Mets News:

Sporting News Top 50 baseball prospects:

8. Daniel Murphy, 2B/OF, New York Mets. Murphy performed well in left field during a late-season call-up, but second base may be a better fit for the Mets' needs. After hitting .313 in his short big-league stint, Murphy was one of the stars of the Arizona Fall League, where he showed great plate discipline and an above average glove at second. Murphy doesn't have much power, but he has a great approach, superb pitch recognition and tremendous bat control.

40. Fernando Martinez, OF, New York Mets. Martinez is a top talent but his impact in 2009 is hard to gauge. Despite plus bat speed and great hands, he has been plagued by injuries and inconsistency. If Martinez can stay healthy, he could realize his potential and eventually win a big-league job.

43. Jonathon Niese, SP, New York Mets. The Mets' rotation could have at least one open slot and Niese is the best internal candidate for the job. While he's not overpowering, Niese has three effective pitches and is learning how to mix his offerings and set up hitters.

Las Vegas Odds on winning the 2009 World Series:

Arizona Diamondbacks 30/1 Atlanta Braves 35/1 Baltimore Orioles 150/1 Boston Red Sox 15/2 Chicago Cubs 7/1 Chicago White Sox 25/1 Cincinnati Reds 50/1 Cleveland Indians 25/1 Colorado Rockies 60/1 Detroit Tigers 20/1 Florida Marlins 40/1 Houston Astros 40/1 Kansas City Royals 150/1 Los Angeles Angels 11/1 Los Angeles Dodgers 17/1 Milwaukee Brewers 35/1 Minnesota Twins 25/1 New York Mets 7/1 New York Yankees 5/2 Oakland Athletics 55/1 Philadelphia Phillies 11/1 Pittsburgh Pirates 200/1 San Diego Padres 200/1 San Francisco Giants 40/1 Seattle Mariners 100/1 St Louis Cardinals 30/1 Tampa Bay Rays 12/1 Texas Rangers 60/1 Toronto Blue Jays 60/1 Washington Nationals 150/1


NY Sports Dog on: - Mike Pelfrey: - No pitcher (ok, maybe Ollie) is a tougher read for me than Mike Pelfrey. When I am on comment boards for several different Mets blogs, and see the projected lineups people post, many have Pelf as the number 2 guy. My colleague Dave Singer thinks Pelf can put up close to 17 victories. I am just not sure if he will take that step just yet. For the record, I am a big fan of Mike (I've got the Go Big Pelf! Tee from Brooklyn Met Fan); However, my Shea record with that shirt is 0-2, and for overall games watched in that shirt, it is 0-5), but based on just a half season, I'm not sure if he is the #2 guy yet. Much like Johan's 2nd half approach, Pelf just pitched to contact, and forgot about throwing that perfect pitch every time. His bowling ball of a sinker did the rest. The positive is that going into June, Pelf was 2-6. The rest of the way? 11-4. Certainly, over the course of the full season, 17 wins is a possibility, with his new approach. Then again, the biggest question with Mike is whether or not he can pitch a full season in 2009, due to his workload increasing by 50 innings. Personally, I think the Verducci Theory (young pitchers should increase their workload by no more than 30 innings, to avoid injury) is flawed, because it assumes all innings are created equal. However, thanks to Mack of Mack's Mets, I was able to do a quick analysis using pitch counts.

2007- 2,565 pitches/152.7 IP = 16.80 pitches/inning (incl. minors)

2008- 3,323 pitches/200.7 IP = 16.56 pitches/inning

Pelf threw 758 more pitches in 2008. Assuming a rate of 16.65 pitches per inning (a mid point of his 2007-8 seasons), Mike's workload increased by close to 45.2IP – certainly a red flag. Originally, had no questions about his durability, but after crunching numbers, I do have some reservations. Ultimately, I think the Mets will feature yet another strong staff anchored by a true ace in Johan, and 3 other solid pitchers. I think that Omar has been very wise in building depth for the rotation with the rash of minor league signings, so the team isn't undermined by poor 5th starter performance, as it has been the past two seasons. Furthermore, I think the depth will come in handy to give Pelfrey a breather in the middle of the season.



Prospects:

Baseball America's Top 30 Mets Prospects:

1. Fernando Martinez, cf 2. Wilmer Flores, ss 3. Jon Niese, lhp 4. Brad Holt, rhp 5. Bobby Parnell, rhp 6. Jefry Marte, 3b 7. Jenrry Mejia, rhp 8. Reese Havens, ss 9. Nick Evans, 1b/of 10. Eddie Kunz, rhp 11. Ike Davis, 1b 12. Cesar Puello, of 13. Scott Moviel, rhp 14. Zach Lutz, 3b 15. Michael Antonini, lhp 16. Ruben Tejada, ss 17. Dillon Gee, rhp 18. Scott Shaw, rhp 19. Tobi Stoner, rhp 20. Lucas Duda, 1b 21. Francisco Pena, c 22. Greg Veloz, 2b 23. Josh Thole, c 24. Brant Rustich, rhp 25. Nathan Vineyard, lhp 26. Elvin Ramirez, rhp 27. Darren O'Day, rhp 28. Dylan Owen, rhp 29. Javier Rodriguez, of 30. Aderlin Rodriguez, 3b

Toby Hyde's #10 - RHP Dillon Gee - Why Ranked Here: This ranking is similar to a value bet at a pot in hold 'em. Unlike Rustich behind him, Gee has been healthy. Kunz and Parnell are likelier to be bullpen arms whereas Gee still has a chance to start which delivers higher value. All five pitchers ranked above Gee offer something he doesn't. So what does the 21st round pick from 2007 offer? Gee throws strikes. He starts with a fastball that was fringy average when I saw him in the FSL, at 89-91 mph, but has been clocked higher at other times and that plays up thanks to strong command. Gee's second pitch is a changeup with good arm speed for deception and arm side run. His curve was his third offering. 2008: Gee left the Florida State League third in WHIP (1.07) and fifth in ERA. Projected 2009 Start: AA Binghamton. He should finish the year with the AAA Bisons.

Mack: - The first time I met Dillon Gee was when he was standing outside the Traditions Field minor league complex, talking to his father, and I remember saying to myself how surprised I was about his lack of height. That being said, Gee has done nothing wrong as a Met, either in the spring, during a season, or in the winter. The comparisons to Tom Glavine and Greg Maddox are often heard, but I heard that before for ex-prospects like Brian Bannister. 2009 in Binghamton will be a real test.

Toby Hyde's #9 Prospect - RHP Scott Moviel - Why Ranked Here: Moviel combines height, athletic genes and potential into an intriguing package for a pitching prospect. Height first: he's somewhere close to 6'10". That allows him to get good downward plane on pitches and keep them down in the zone. When he releases his fastball, he's just a little closer to home plate than the average pitcher, so it jumps on hitters. One of the points of emphasis for Moviel at the start of the '08 campaign was to pitch tall and use his height. He's quick to learn however, and in the course of the last year played with and modified the grips on most of his pitches to produce better results, learning both from teammates and his brothers who played professional baseball before him. In July, Moviel did not show a true plus pitch. Rather, he showed the potential to acquire them. Moviel worked for a fastball that was in the range of MLB average, sitting around 90, 91. He located the pitch well for a pitcher his age. At other times he has thrown harder, but he was dialing the velocity down in favor of strikes. His second offering was a slurvy curveball that he had really excellent feel for. He could spin the below average offering for strikes. His touch for the pitch leaves hope that he will be able to tighten the offering up into a plus offering, by finishing out front better more consistently. His changeup was the least reliable of his offerings, but he felt as though he was making progress with it. Mets staff universally praise Moviel's work ethic and preparation. 2008: Jumping from the GCL in 2007 to the SAL to begin 2008, Moviel allowed 21 runs in 17.2 IP in April, but improved dramatically after that rough start. After June 1, Moviel put together a 3.17 ERA while fanning 48 batters and walking just 16 in 71 IP while producing GB/FB ratios near two. That K/BB ratio of three is excellent. As he moves up, Moviel will need to produce not just grounders, but learn to miss more bats and drive his K rate up. In a nice move, the Mets promoted Moviel to the Florida State League for his final start on August 30th to prepare him for the challenge of Advanced-A in 2009. He responded with five shutout innings. Moviel also proved that he was durable, making 25 starts and throwing 125 innings in his first full professional season. Projected 2009 Start: St. Lucie rotation

Mack: - I've got Moviel 14th so we're in the same boat… nice guy… really straightened out the second half of the season.I expect big things from him in Lucy this year. ETA: 2012 the latest.
Mets Alumni:

Venezuela Tops Mexico to Win Series; Licey Crumbles - Last year's Del Caribe Series was dominated by the two teams from the Dominican Republic. They finished 1/2, with Mexico and Venezuela sharing the basement. This year the roles are reversed with Mexico and Venezuela doing battle for the top spot. Josue Matos walked six Dominican batters in five innings, but none of them scored as he gave up only two hits. Josh Rainwater (Tigers) came on to throw three innings of shutout ball, the second relief pitcher to appear. Ivan Maldanado came on in the ninth to retire the last two hitters and get the second save of the Series. Puerto Rico got solo shots from Jesus Feliciano and Andy Gonzalez, with Jesus opening the game with a homerun.

The Boston Red Sox have invited OF Chip Ambres and P Billy Traber to ST.

The Mets released OF Jonathan Sanchez.

Ruddy Lugo signed with the Tigers.

Nate Field signed with the Marlins.

Draft:

From BA: Probably 1st Pick In 2009 Draft – Stephen Strasburg - There were 1,502 players selected in the major league draft three years ago. Stephen Strasburg was not among them. All 30 major league teams passed on Strasburg coming out of high school. This year, 29 teams may not have a chance to choose him even if they want to. And they want to. The Washington Nationals have the first pick in the 2009 draft. Strasburg, a junior right hander at San Diego State, is the odds-on favorite for the first choice. So just how does a pitcher go from obscurity to the top of the draft?

• By hitting 101 mph on a radar gun.

• By outdueling the first pitcher selected in last year's draft.

• By striking out 23 batters in a game.

• By being the first collegiate player selected to the U.S. Olympic team since professionals were put on the roster in 2000.