3/13/09

BP Analysis of Pedro Martinez

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Baseball Prospectus analysis of Pedro Martinez:


Overall averages can be quite deceiving, however, because they hide year-to-year shifts. Pedro's 2006-08 strikeout rate may be 8.5 per nine innings, but the average is largely comprised of a 9.3 K/9 in 2006 and a career-worst 7.2 K/9 last season. Combine the relatively low strikeout rate with a 3.6 BB/9 mark that happened to be his highest since 1993, and it becomes a little easier to understand what went wrong last season.

Ignore the 2007 season for a moment (Pedro made just five starts), and instead compare the years before and after. Pedro induced swings out of the zone at a higher clip last season, yet the contact on these swings soared to heights he had never before seen. Likewise, hitters proved more efficient on pitches thrown in the zone, as their zone contact rate increased despite a lower percentage of swings. All of this signals that Pedro had lost much of his ability to fool hitters, which led to fewer whiffs, more balls in play, and a heavier reliance on his defense, which went well for Martinez given the abilities of the Mets' defenders throughout his tenure.

LINK: http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8608

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