6/6/13

Reese Kaplan - Not Every Trade Must Be For An All-Star

This week the latest rumor to drop among the Mets fans was the qualified nugget that the team could be buyers come trade deadline time.  Anyone who has watched this moribund team probably did a cartwheel at that news until remembering that the Wilpons and Alderson have told us at various times the financial problems were over, we can add significant resources if available and other similar glimmers of hope, only to find that what they had in mind consisted of the Brad Eamus, Collin Cowgill and Rick Ankiel variety. 

It’s easy to sit and fantasize what the team would be like if they added people rumored to be available like Giancarlo Stanton or Carlos Gonzalez.  However, sometimes it’s the under-the-radar, unsexy moves that can turn out to help in the long run. Let’s take a look at three such moves the Mets could consider making to improve their team.

Norichika Aoki is not the most glamorous name out there, but the pint-sized Milwaukee Brewers outfielder may be just what Dave Hudgens ordered.  Last year the 31 year old played quite a bit due to injuries and the same is happening this year due to Corey Hart being on the DL.  When the Brew Crew’s outfield his healthy, Aoki is on the depth chart behind Hart, Carlos Gomez and Ryan Braun.  In 741 big league at bats after coming over from Japan he’s hit 14 HRs, driven in 63, stolen 36 bases while hitting .290.  Most improbably he’s struck out just 67 times while walking 61 times.  That type of patience would certainly be music to Hudgens’ ears.  Right now he’s earning a paltry $1.25 million.  I’d slot him into centerfield and bat him leadoff.  Unfortunately the Brewers may be reluctant to make the move with Hart slated to be a free agent at the end of the year.

While everyone rightfully drools over uber-talented CarGo in left field, the Rockies have a centerfielder in the mold of Aoki named Dexter Fowler who is a couple of years younger.  He has decent power, good speed and patrols CF competently.  In a 162 game average he would provide 10 HRs, 52 RBIs, steal 20 bases and hit .273.  It’s not quite in Aoki’s league, but at just 27 and a switch hitter there is the potential for him to improve.  At 6’4” and 190 there might still be some muscle that can be added to his frame to increase his power output.  Of course, leaving the friendly confines of Coors Field has been detrimental to many hitters but Matt Holliday is proving in St. Louis you don’t have to be a mile high to make balls disappear into thin air.  Fowler draws just as many walks as Aoki but strikes out more often.  The other gamble on him would be his health.  He’s had a number of minor injuries that have curtailed his ability to stay on the field for 500+ ABs per season.  He’s making $4.25 million this year and is set for $7.35 million in 2014 with 2015 his arbitration eligible year and 2016 his free agent year.

The third one who might be plucked from relative obscurity is the Washington Nationals reserve outfielder Tyler Moore.  He’s currently on the depth chart behind Bryce Harper, Denard Span, Jayson Werth and 1st base is blocked by Adam LaRoche.  Last year the big right handed rookie slugger blasted 10 HRs and drove in 29 in just 156 ABs.  That projects to 40/116 over the course of a full season.  Lest you think those numbers are a mirage, in his last AA and AAA seasons he produced back to back 31 HR seasons averaging 100 RBIs.  This year he’s hitting in Ike Davis territory albeit in less than 100 ABs.  It might be the time to strike a deal with the Nationals who have no place to play him while his value is depressed. 

The fun part is deciding who you want.  The much tougher part is figuring out who you would give up to get them.  The Mets seems somewhat stacked at the starting pitching and catching positions in the minors.  You also have the Daniel Murphy vs. Wilmer Flores decision to make. 

Then there are the underachievers on the big league roster – Ike Davis, Lucas Duda (and the rest of the outfielders though it’s unlikely anybody wants any of them), Ruben Tejada and a crashed-to-earth John Buck.  You have some perfect mid season pitchers to flip in trades who are on one year deals like LaTroy Hawkins and Shaun Marcum


My prediction is that the team will make Bobby Parnell the centerpiece of a future blockbuster trade and hope that the ungodly strikeout numbers posted by Jack Leathersich can somehow translate into success in the majors.  They could do a similar move with Jon Niese but a 2014 rotation featuring Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler and Rafael Montero still comes up two men short.  Although there have been some better efforts lately by Dillon Gee and Jeremy Hefner, they are not necessarily long term solutions.  

6 comments:

Mack Ade said...

No one did a better job of these kind of signings tha Baltimore has done over the past couple of seasons.

Omar Quintanilla is proving right now that you just need players that are better than the guy you used to have play that position, plus are capable of winning a game every once in awhile.

TP said...

Reese,
Agree with the point, but the big problem now is that the Mets need to secure both a quality leadoff hitter and a quality cleanup hitter. Filling those two slots with above average players will make everyone else look better, and Aoki/Fowler are certainly upgrades in the leadoff spot. Fill those two holes will add more value to the complementary acquisitions, and will allow them to focus on defense at SS and CF that will benefit the pitching. And, despite all the arms in the minors, they still need to add a lot more pitching at the major league level somehow, their runs against are close to the worst in the NL, which despite the lineup woes is really the biggest problem.

Mack Ade said...

Strangely, den Dekker will still line up as a possible OD lead-off hitter with Lagares his chief competition.

Cesar Puello (2 more HRs today) is on paper to slot in at RF and in the 3-4-5-6-7 mix with Davis-Duda-d-Arnaud-Davis

Michael S. said...

Mets don't have to trade for all stars at every position but they need some bats that actually scare the opposing pitchers.

Reese Kaplan said...

It would be nice to see the Mets allow young players to develop and advance, but Collins' obsession with "veteran presence" works against them. Yes, it's possible some players might seem overmatched against the next level of competition, but how would you know unless they get the opportunity to try.

Mack Ade said...

Then you have TC's "vet presence" and Sandy's high school draft picks - no middle ground