7/8/13

Mack Ade – AM Report – 7-8-13 – Pitching Prospect Update

 

Pitching Prospect Update –

                There are other pitchers in the system that have impressed, but these are the guys that can  possibly get us to the playoff some day. We have Harvey, Wheeler, and Niese. We need two more:

AAA – 22/y. old  Rafael Montero – The Montero machine rolls on in Vegas at the level you expected him to be at. Tucson was another learning experience in this mountain region, tossing 2-ERs in 6.0-IP. That’s great pitching in Tucson. Was stationed there at Lowry AFB in Denver back in the 60’s and played on the base softball team, tennis intramurals, and base basketball team. I was in absolutely buff shape and still liked to die every time I put a uniform on. It just sucked there. Well, the atmosphere in Denver is the same as what these guys play in every day and I give Montero all the credit in the world keeping his ERA below five. – ETA – September 2013

AA – 19/yr. old Noah Syndergaard – ‘Thor’ continues to dominate at the AA-level (3-starts, 1.50, 18.0-IP, 23-K) and we all know how hard it is to do that in the ‘prospect’ Eastern League. Every scout I have talked to that has seen him pitch is impressed with him and projects him past Zack Wheeler (however, I caution that some of these guys are the same ones that projected Wheeler past Harvey). Jeremy Hefner said yesterday that he has never seen a pitcher improve as much as Harvey has in the last 24 months. Well, this could possibly be said for Syndergaard as well. It seems all we have to do here is patiently wait. ETA – August 2014

A+ -  21-yrs. old Domingo Tapia – It’s impossible to judge Tapia on stats alone this year. Yes, he has a season ERA of 3.76 after 14 starts with St. Lucie, but this includes a torturous outing on May 24th in which he gave up six earned runs in 0.1-IP (162.00). He had a wonderful outing on July 3rd (6.2-IP, 0-R); however, the three outings prior resulted in 11-ER in 14.1-IP. There’s a control problem here 34BB/64.2-IP which is going to prevent him from moving up this season. ETA – Opening Day 2016

 
A – 22-yrs. old Steven Matz – Matz ‘completed’ his 14th start Saturday night with a 7-inning shutout of Greenville. He’s given up only two earned runs in his last four starts (26.1-IP), striking out 29 while walking 9. Matz is done with A-ball, but he’s caught behind the 6-man St. Lucie rotation that currently exists. – Opening Day 2016 (photo by Allan Greene)
 

GCL –20-yr. old - Michael Fulmer – Fulmer continued his rehab with the GCL Mets. He’s had two outings and his total stats were: 2-starts, 12.0-innings, 4-ER, 3.00, 13-K, 1-BB. He was returned to St. Lucie yesterday and got off to a shaky start, giving up three runs in the first inning. He then settled down. Opening Day 2016

(the Mets need to clean out the system a little here either through a couple of trades or by releasing some of the institutional pitchers at AAA (D.J. Mitchell, Matt Fox). You move Darin Gorski and Erik Goeddel to AAA, opening up room for Angel Cuan and either Matt Bowman or Alex Panteleodis to Binghamton. All of these are secondary moves designed to make room for the prospects in the system. Fulmer and Matz can then slot into Lucy and all is well in the

 
 
GCL – 23-yr. old Jenrry Mejia – This is your wild card. First, is the 23-yr. old still a prospect? Secondly, he may be rehabbing as a starter, but where is his future with the Mets. And third, when the rehab is done, is this a AAA pitcher or does he go directly to the airport and purchase a plane ticket with the initials LGA on it? His 2-game rehab is meh: 3.18, 5.2-IP, 2-ER… let’s face it, he should be dominating at a level he hasn’t pitched at since 2008. I list him here because of his raw talent, which, if harnessed, would still make a damn good major league starter. ETA – August 2013




                Rich MacLeod ‏- "He's the best pitcher in baseball, without question." -Dan Plesac on Matt Harvey


Mack Ade - In your opinion, what can we get for Marlon Byrd?
 

Jon Presser ‏@metsjetsnets88 - that's a good question. i would think maybe a B/C level prospect. I definitely would like to get something for him, for sure

Andy Brill – NBC -  nothing worth dealing him for.

Marc Carig ‏@MarcCarig  - I don't know. But a rival exec said a few days ago it wouldn't be anything more than a bench or bullpen piece down the road.

Dan Kirby ‏@DanMKirby - Well, we got nothing for him. He is having a good year for you guys, though. I still don't don't see him fetching much.

Rich MacLeod ‏@richmacleod  - Likely a B-level prospect, close to or already MLB ready.

John Coppinger @Metstradamus – It won't be another Wheeler. Probably a second level MiLB reliever or something. Somewhere between Wheeler and Danny Herrera.
 

I had expected a little more positive response here. Maye we just get too close to the tree sometimes and never see the forest.

 

Rick Giolito ‏@RickGiolito  - Big S/O to Lucas Giolito, who's doing great w his rehab, touching 97 today. To follow Luc, @lgio27  

 

Mack Ade  ‏@JohnMackinAde  hey Rick, it's Mack...  long time and good to hear things working out

 

Rick Giolito - Hey Mack. Good to hear from you. Yes, Luc is healthy again, on the hill & shaking off the rust
 

 

5 comments:

jonah said...

When you write " we need two more starters", do you forget Gee and Hefner? Both pitching great/good as No 4 & 5.

Mejia, I would put him in Las Vegas and let him prove he is a starter.

Promotions, I would put Verrett and Mazzoni up before Gorski and Goeddel. But since not realy anybody pushing in St Lucie, Bowman perhaps, no need to promote anybody from Binghamton to Las Vegas, especialy when Mejia is going to Las Vegas as a starter.

Mack Ade said...

I consider Gee a 'good' major league starter.

Hefner has definitely grown on me

I have nothing wrong with a rotation of Harvey, Hefner, Wheeler, Niese, Gee (in that order) for 2014... two flamers, two controllers, one lefty...

Now, what happens when the kids start arriving?

jonah said...

My option would be trading a rotation piece. Why? Because they will get more in return. I assume Gee/Hefner could net a very good prospect or a real OF-er when Montero is realy ready. Perhaps that can happen this winter. If not maybe next summer. After Montero you have Syndergaard and perhaps DeGrom, Verrett, Gorski, Mazzoni, Mejia.

When you have a proven rotation of Harvey, Hefner, Wheeler, Niese and Gee it is easier to trade one and get a good return. In 2014 the Mets should have a Las Vegas rotation of Montero, Syndergaard, DeGrom, Mazzoni, Gorski/Verrett and perhaps Mejia proves himself as a starter this year. So the depth will be great. Injuries do happen and that is why I think you shouldnt trade any arms. Go FA if that is what is needed.

Mack Ade said...

your best trading option would be Niese, but he's your only lefty.

Then comes Wheeler, followed by Montero.

I was surprised what my survey came back with regarding the limited value of Byrd. That tells me Hefner may not have top value either.

I say trade top prospect for top prospect - Montero for either Joc or Castellanos

jonah said...

Niese is hurt at the moment so no value at all. And does it realy matter then the Mets have no lefty?
Tigers dont have a lefty and they do pretty well.

Perhaps the Mets dont have that much to trade, Parnell has value, but the rotation of Harvey, Wheeler, Gee, Hefner and (hopefully) Niese could have some value this winter. Having Montero ready(??), perhaps Mejia stays healty the rest of the season and proves he belongs as a starter and Carlos Torres can still be around as cheap depth. So on paper the Mets should be able to trade a starter and let Montero/Mejia/Torres step in.