8/29/13

Dave Whitman - Prospecting for Gold - Mets track record in trades for prospects in the Alderson era

4 comments
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The Mets did what they needed to do yesterday. Instead of trying to squeeze out a couple of extra W’s by keeping Marlon Byd and John Buck, they dealt them for a top 10 Pirate prospect at a position where the Mets currently are thin. The Alderson regime has been maddeningly inconsistent in many ways but not when it comes to acquiring prospects in trades.

Here are the deals involving prospects since Sandy Alderson took over in 2010. There haven’t been many, but they’ve made the most of the deals they’ve completed:

• March 29, 2011
Allen Dykstra for Eddie Kunz

• July 12, 2011
Adrian Rosario in package with Denny Herrera for K-Rod

• July 28, 2011
Zack Wheeler for Carlos Beltran

• December 17, 2012
Travis d'Arnaud, Noah Syndergaard and Wulmer Beccera in package with John Buck for R.A. Dickey, Mike Nickeas and Josh Thole

• June 25, 2013
Kyle Johnson for Collin Cowgill

• August 27, 2013
Dilson Herrera for Marlon Byrd and John Buck

In looking at these moves it’s apparent that Alderson has done an excellent job acquiring prospects for the team. R.A. Dickey alone has netted a starting C, a future top of the rotation starter, an intriguing five tool OF talent, and now indirectly (by the trading of Buck) a player who immediately becomes the Mets #1 2B prospect. The R.A. Dickey deal that so many didn't want to make has the potential to positively shape this team for the next decade. It could eventually go down as the best trade in franchise history.

As for the Wheeler deal--What else needs to be said? Losing Carlos was hard, but he was a goner that offseason no matter what. Acquiring a top pitching prospect like Wheeler softened the blow. Seeing that prospect's evolving talent on display every fifth day in 2014 will alleviate some of the pain in possibly losing Harvey until 2015.

Dykstra has given the organization a possibly late-developing prospect who has prospered at Binghamton, and will probably be the opening day 1B for Vegas next spring. He projects to be a future bat off the bench or trade chip for the team.

As for the other two deals. Rosario didn't pan out but Johnson has speed (11SB) and gets on-base .353 OBP, patrolling the OF in St. Lucie.

Monday was a horrible day to be a Mets fan, but today’s trade shows that the team is continuing to build a solid future. The deal also shows that the Mets don’t see Wilmer Flores as a long-term 2B option. If Herrera comes up in 2016, Flores wouldn’t turn 25 until August. Unless they work him out extensively at 1B in the offseason, it would seem that long-term, unless the NL adopts the DH, Flores is not part of team’s plan.

Projecting a bit here, but by mid-season 2016 the big club could look something like this:

1B-Dom Smith
2B-Dilson Herrera
SS-Gavin Cecchini
3B-David Wright
C-Travis d’Arnaud
OF-Cesar Puello
OF-Brandon Nimmo
OF-Ivan Wilson
P-Matt Harvey
P-Zack Wheeler
P-Noah Syndegaard
P-Jonathan Niese
P-Jenry Mejia

Of course, the team had better be in contention before 2016, and very little of this could pan out. But in the waning weeks of a disappointing summer of 2013 there’s no harming dreaming about the promise of a summer of ’16.

4 comments:

Mack Ade said...

We all seem to be happy with the Alderson trades, but the team that was put on the field last night is not competitive and will not be just by inserting David Wright at some point.

Joe Gomes said...

You forgot the waiver deal for our current LF Young.

The Closer said...

Dont forget the Pagan debacle for Torres & Ramirez, who actually both resigned with San Fran after the season. Ramirez waslet go and picked up by Tampa Bay and then let go again. That to me was his worst trade sime I think Pagan could have netted a few b level prospects instead of the nothing they got. Disclaimer: I thought Ramirez would have been a solid pen piece when the trade was made, but Torres was a complete waste and way over the hill.

That and the KRod trade were pretty much player/salary dumps, not designed to get player value returns like the others. There not nearly as bad as the Billy Wagner trade, which Ive detailed many times before here and to this day actually drives me crazy just thinking about what a wasted opportunity we gave up there. We would have been able to draft two guys off this list if we would have just held onto him and offered him arbitration after the season.

(#23) Christian Yelich
(#24) Gary Brown
(#27) Jessie Biddle
(#28) Zach Lee
(#34) Aaron Sanchez
(#36) Bryce Brentz
(#38) Noah Syndergaard
(#43) Tajiuan Walker
(#44) Nick Castellanos
(#49) Mike Olt
(#59) Jedd Gyorko
(#70) Andrelton Simmons

Imagine having Tajiuan Walker and Andrelton Simmons in our system fill our SS and SP roles or any combination of 2 of these guys above. Knowing what we potentially could have recieved in draft picks, you would think we could have recieved a better return than Chris Carter & Eddie Lora, which neither one of them are even playing baseball in the US anymore. Last check, Carter was in Japan and Lora retired soon after this trade.

Sorry, when it comes to GM blunders, there are many others ones that come to mind, but this one stands out to me as the biggest mistake in the last 4-5 years.

Michael Scannell said...

Biddle and Walker would have been awesome.

Jose Fernandez too. There would be no hesitation to deal pitching this offseason.

Mack's Mets © 2012