8/27/13

Mack Ade – AM Report – 8-26-13 – Matt Harvey, Draft Order, The Manager Hot Seat, Level Rising

9 comments
mets - terry collins

 

2014 Draft Order – 1 – Houston  86, 2 – Miami  80, 3 – CWS  76, 4 – Cubs 76, 5 – Brewers  73, 6 – Toronto 73, 7 – Giants 73, 8 – Twins 72, 9 – Padres 72, 10 - Mets 71,  11 - Angels 71, 12  – Rockies 71, 13 – Phillies 71,  14 – Seattle 71

A big jump here. The Mets loss last night puts them in a virtual tie for 10th place with four other teams. It doesn’t matter how many wins they all have right now. Follow the loss columns. More importantly, they could finish the Philly series as high as tied for 5th.

 

Atlanta's magic number:  20

 

It’s very hard right now to project the 2014 Mets rotation right now. Barring any new injuries, it will include Zack Wheeler, Jonathan Niese, Dillon Gee, and Jenrry Mejia. My assumption is that all four of these pitchers will not now be available for an off-season trade. I also assume that both Rafael Montero and Noah Syndergaard will not be rushed and will remain June options. My guess is the Mets will add to their off-season wants an additional starter via he free agent market. Speculation as to who at this point would be a wild guess.

Realistically, I know it is hard to think that one player could turn a season; however, my gut feeling is we should all re-target our goals to 2015 now, not 2014.

At the same time, there are 24 more players on this team so the world is far from ending. Let's give the Mets brain trust and doctors a couple of weeks to work out a plan here...

 

Jeff Passan on Managers on the Hot Seat –

The Marlins' future does look better at the moment than the one Terry Collins sees with the New York Mets. Yes, he's got Matt Harvey as his Fernandez. And if Zack Wheeler can harness his stuff and cut his walks, he'll be better than any No. 2 the Marlins have (though scouts do adore last year's top pick, Andrew Heaney). Here's the ultimate question for the Mets: Do they have the money to complement David Wright, Travis d'Arnaud and a resurgent Ike Davis with anything more of substance? Or, as it soon will be known, how will they fare on the Robinson Cano Litmus Test? Collins has done well in keeping the Harvey hype train from derailing and transitioning Wheeler to the major leagues, and while he hasn't singlehandedly put an end to the LOLMets stories of yore, his job stabilizing the Mets certainly has mirrored what Joe Girardi has done with the New York Yankees.  … http://sports.yahoo.com/news/10-degrees--angels-gm-jerry-dipoto-facing-possible-ouster-after-disappointing-season-021749544.html

Mack – I know that most people out there think that it’s a done deal that TC will be back next season, but, if that was true, he’d already be under contract. I just can’t help but feel that this process is being held up awaiting what goes on out in Los Angeles with the Angels. There’s only so much prime talent on this team and, what with David Wright being grounded and both Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler facing shutdown, things could get really testy or those in this organization still trying to finish at .500.

 

 

I had a conversation with Gary Seagren earlier this month about the talent at each minor league level and I thought it would be good to share my thoughts on this.

Basically, all the youngsters are sent to the same level. Teams send most of their recently signed high school seniors to the GCL level to play each other for the remainder of the season. Call it an extension of the travel team concept, but this time it included the best of the kids that played the previous year in both the DSL and VSL leagues. Anyway, for general purposes, let’s say that the GCL leagues are for the 18-year olds.

Using that as a constant, Kingsport would be for the 19-year olds (there are exceptions), Brooklyn for the 20-year olds and so on all the way up to Las Vegas which ranges in the 22-25 range.

Let’s go back a minute and realize one thing. Everyone doesn’t make a level jump. Many players simply are released throughout this process, thus creating a more talented level each time you are promoted. Pitchers pound the zone more and have more than one decent pitch. Hitters are more patient and have learned not to swing at everything that is thrown past them. You just don’t get a promotion by showing up for the game each day. You have to earn it.

Okay, we’re back at Vegas and we’re in the 22-25 range. We get promoted to Queens and now we’re playing against the best of the 26-year olds, right?

Well, no.

Now, you are playing the best of baseball, regardless of age. They could be as young as 21 or as old as 40, but they are all easily more talented than the minor leaguers you have so far played in your professional career. This is nothing you have ever seen before and there is no relief for you at any point. The number eight hitter in your opponent’s lineup hit second or third four years ago against you in one of the rookie leagues.

This is the speed bump in baseball. This is where we find out if players like Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Mike Baxter, Omar Quintanilla, and Chris Schwinden can make the grade.

I call it the ‘Anderson Herdandez’ dilemma. Hernandez could always hit well in the minors and even won a Sterling Award with the Mets, but he simply couldn’t make the grade at the MLB level.

Occasionally, someone develops skills at this level we never saw in the minors. Gonzalez Germen seems to be doing this in 2014. It’s rare and wonderful when it happens, but there are far more Juan Lagares’, who impress us for what they are doing, but are still doing it at a far less productive level than they did in the minors.

One more thing… this has been a rare year where every team seems to be destined to win their league championship. What this has created is very few people have been moved up to the next level after the all-star break. Take Brandon Nimmo at Savannah. He would definitely be in St. Lucie right now if there wasn’t a playoff around the block. I used to root for the moves but I now like each player staying at one level during a pennant race. That’s what’s baseball is all about.

9 comments:

Kevin said...

Mack,

I agree that this team can still improve and be a dangerous team next year. Up until yesterday afternoon I thought if we had a solid offseason with some actually moves, we could be competing with the Braves. Now I think we need to be smart, add a piece of 2 if they make sense but don't rush into adding a superstar just to add one. This team can be a fringe team but 2015 looks like its our first chance at giving all of us loyal Mets fans some hope

Mack Ade said...

Here is MLBTR's list of 2015 FAs:

Shortstops

Mike Aviles (34) - club option
Asdrubal Cabrera (29)
J.J. Hardy (32)
Jed Lowrie (31)
Hiroyuki Nakajima (32) - $5.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
Hanley Ramirez (31)
Cody Ransom (39)
Jimmy Rollins (36) - vesting/club/player option

Left fielders

Melky Cabrera (30)
Chris Denorfia (34)
Ryan Doumit (34)
Brett Gardner (31)
Jonny Gomes (34)
Tony Gwynn Jr. (32)
Scott Hairston (35)
Ryan Ludwick (36) - $9MM mutual option with a $4.5MM buyout
Seth Smith (32)
Alfonso Soriano (39)
Vernon Wells (36)
Josh Willingham (36)

Center fielders

Emilio Bonifacio (30)
Tony Gwynn Jr. (32)
Colby Rasmus (28)
Denard Span (31) - $9MM club option with a $500K

Right fielders

Norichika Aoki (33)
Michael Cuddyer (36)
Chris Denorfia (34)
Scott Hairston (35)
Torii Hunter (39)
Nick Markakis (31) - $17.5MM mutual option; $2MM buyout if club declines
Nyjer Morgan (34)
Alex Rios (34) - $13.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Nate Schierholtz (31)
Ichiro Suzuki (41)

Derek said...

Mack,

Unless its been ruled upon and I didn't see it, the #10 pick will be the Bluejays for failing to sign their #9 pick next year. So the #10 position will fall to #11 outside the protection again. So I guess the goal is to get inside of 9.

2015, That gives the system another year for all the pitchers to develop at a higher level for trades. As you have said many times AA starts the separation, so if two or three can handle AA that will make trading easier for the Mets.

Shame about Harvey but I guess his injury gives the FO cover for another year.

Soto said...

Derek,

Its already been announced that the Jays will get the 11th pick as compensation for being unable to sign Bickford.

Ernest Dove said...

2015 sounds good for a Mets playoff run. But will Harvey still be pitching that September/October. .........lets not forget the 165 inning cap other teams have put pitchers on in this situation.

Mack Ade said...

Harvey will probably have a new pitch count in 2015.

Jeez, is it only me that thinks this sport has gone to the pussies?

Chad said...

Derek, Toronto's pick was at #10 this year and their pick next year should be outside the top 10.

Dallas said...

Yeah this innings cap stuff has gone bonkers. Degrom, Syndergaard, Montero will likely hit caps again next year right? So if we are doing well its more shutdown time. Even Wheeler could be subjected to it again if he pitches well and goes deep into games.

Mack Ade said...

and... after Harvey has around 155 innings in 2015... he will be arb ready in 2016

Mack's Mets © 2012