As we muddle through the dog depressing days of September it's time for a new segment here on Mack's Mets. We're going to review each member of the 40 man roster on a case by case basis and define whether they should be on the 2014 Mets or not. We will also include AAA and AA minor leaguers who are eligible for Minor League Free Agency this off-season.
First up the Starting Rotation.
Members This Season
Matt Harvey
Zack Wheeler
Jonathan Niese
Dillon Gee
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Aaron Harang
Carlos Torres
Jeremy Hefner
Jenrry Mejia
Hansel Robles
Johan Santana
Giancarlo Alvarado
Matt Harvey- Keep Him
No words need be spoken on how important Matt Harvey is to this organization's future. If Dr. James Andrews feels that he will not need surgery then the Mets are going to compete for a spot in the playoffs in 2014. If he's does need surgery than it completely changes Alderson's offseason gameplan. His performances this season were downright masterful and he was on pace for a better season than R.A. Dickey's 2012 CY Young season. Plus there the fact that he's under team control until the end of the 2018 season.
Zack Wheeler- Keep Him
While he hasn't exactly WOW'd us this season, Wheeler still has upper echelon potential. One has to remember that even Harvey wasn't that great in his first few starts with the big league club. Give the kid time and you'll see him blossom the same way Harvey did. As with Harvey, Wheeler is also under team control until the end of the 2018 season.
Jonathan Niese- Keep Him
Despite others around the blog world saying that you don't need to have a lefty in the rotation, I still am a firm believer that you do. Niese is finishing up an injury ladened season which is making that 5 year/$25.27MM extension he signed last season look bad. However when he's been healthy he's been very strong. I think Niese will be able to bounce back nicely next season and be the balanced pitcher the team needs to slot in between the young flamethrowers in the rotation for a few more years.
Dillon Gee- Keep Him
Gee would have been a very nice piece of trade bait in late December that could have netted a nice bat but with the injuries to Hefner and Harvey that could potentially keep them out until 2015 the team should NOT trade anyone from the rotation this off-season. Gee is arbitration eligible this season so he's going to get a nice raise from his $500k salary this season but even if he makes $3.0MM next season he's still considered an extremely valuable player as FanGraphs has him worth at least $4.2MM. I hold onto him for now but come the July deadline we may want to re-look into trading him when Syndergaard is ready.
Diasuke Matsuzaka- Dump Him
It has been painful to watch Matsuzaka pitch this season. However, with so many young guys reaching their respective innings limits, it's a burden that must be endured. This doesn't mean we have to endure it next season though. With DeGrom and Montero ready in AAA there's no need to bring Daisuke back. Plus I'd like to see a game end before 11pm and not have to watch a Human Rain Delay. Thanks for the losses Daisuke! We pledge the Top 10 pick you will obtain us in your honor.
Aaron Harang- Dump Him
Harang just hasn't been very good this season for the Seattle Mariners posting a 5.76 ERA in 120.1 innings pitched. The Mets picked him off of free agency to bolster the AAA line-up for the playoffs and to be called up so that he hopefully loses us a few more games to help us retain a Top 10 protected draft pick. He'll get his opportunity to start this Saturday as the club has a Doubleheader. As with Daisuke, I thank you in advance for any losses that you obtain for us.
13 comments:
If the front office plans on signing a free agent SP, then we will open the season with Niese, Wheeler, Gee, Free Agent & Mejia/Montero as our starters. I'd rather see both Mejia and Montero in the rotation and move Gee but I understand the logic behind not moving anyone. If Montero starts in AAA with deGrom & Syndergaard, we have some very capable arms on call in case of any early injuries. This is a very solid pitching staff with a lot of young talented bullpen arms as well.
For the love of God, please let's add some bats to this lineup. We could easily be a wildcard contender next year with 2 solid bats being added. But that's for a different discussion group.
The real question is which pitchers can the Mets trade to strengthen the rest of the team for the future. My guess that high upside pitchers not named Harvey, Wheeler and Syndergaard were the plan but that list would be Mejia (surgery), Familia (surgery), Mateo (surgery), Fulmer (surgery then shut down for shoulder discomfort), Degrom (shutdown shoulder discomfort), Robles (injuries and inconsistent season), Tapia (horrible season but healthy?). Getting the picture? While the Mets system has a ton of talented pitching this offseason is not the time to trade them. Even if the Mets could use some of these pitchers in trades they would be selling low. Not a smart move. Do all these injuries make it more likely that someone like Syndergaard or Montero are traded or Niese or Gee? Unfortunately, I think the injury to Harvey when combined with the injuries to the vast number of minor league pitchers probably means that 2014 is a stepping stone year for contention in 2015 and beyond. This makes sense anyway just to build up arm strength (i.e. innings limits) for Wheeler, Mejia, Syndergaard, and Montero. So lets upgrade outfield in left and right and one of shortstop and first in free agency and be content with a .500 season next year.
Even without Harvey, this rotation is still in the upper third of the MLB. With Harvey its a Top 5 staff. Add Syndergaard and your talking Top 3.
If the club does go forward and adds lets say 2 impact bats....Kevin is right in his statement that the club could compete for that second wild card spot.
Also forgot to mention that Dillon Gee has torn rotator cuff that he rehabbed and has pitched with and even though he has had great second half remember he had surgery last year and dealt with forearm tightness and soreness for most of season (Let's hope not precursor to TJS). Niese also has had several injury issues in his career. Most recently shoulder discomfort. The Mets are in full spin mode was it torn rotator cuff or fuzzy mri and just normal wear and tear? Who knows. The point is that part of trades is the other team betting on health of players they are getting in return. Would the Mets have to take less because of injury risk? Not sure but I am sure would at least come up in trade talks. If the Mets are going to get better this off season my guess it is going to be by free agency and players like Puello, Lawley, and all the great pitching prospects being ready at some point next year.
By the way I agree. Top of the league rotation.
Gee's surgery last year was from a blood clot. While it is extremely scary it has no baseball relevance.
Yes Gee's surgery last year was for a blood clot issue due to structural issues in his shoulder. I was referring to the torn rotator cuff that he rehabbed for a year in the minors before he was called up. To say that Gee's surgery last year has no baseball relevance is incorrect.
Yes, Mark is correct. Gee had a shoulder issue in the minors and was able to rehab and pith through it. Much like Niese has this year.
As far as I'm concerned, I think it's suicide for the mets to trade any of their young pitching above AA and up into the majors leagues. They've just lost too much pitching to injury and now that Harvey may be lost, it's just not a good idea.
Like I've stated before, the Mets have money to spend. They'd be wise to keep their pitchers and buy the bats.
I am unaware that there was anything structural wrong with his shoulder at the time. All I remember was reports that he was feeling numbness in his fingers from the clot.
As for the torn rotator cuff I was aware about that, however, for the type of pitcher he is and the length of time past the injury I am unconerned about it at this point in time.
I agree with Charles that the Mets should spend money for bats in free agency and keep the surplus of starting pitching until at least the middle of next year to see how everything plays out with all of the injuries. Montero is the most major league ready. Remember DeGrom if I remember correctly is late to pitching and rocketed through the system last year after recovering from TJS so another half year at AAA is not going to hurt him. I kind of like what the A's do with some of their rehabbing pitchers by giving them the last three or four innings of game as sort of a piggy back system. Just as long as Mets are going to get 200 + innings from Niese, Gee, Wheeler, and whatever veteran they bring in I wouldn't mind the Mets piggy backing Mejia and Montero. Save the pen that day and if any pitchers go down Montero could then just move right into the rotation. This would allow Mets to limit both the innings of Mejia and Montero while giving bullpen hopefully one day off each time around the rotation. Let's just hope tear in Harvey's elbow is small enough that may be a combination of prp therapy and strengthening muscles around elbow will allow him to avoid surgery. It's nice for a change to have something to look forward in the near future with the Mets.
I love the Mets rotation and its potential but going into 2014 it's probably the third best-in their division. Additionally, I'd, off the top my head, throw in Cincinnati, LA Dodgers, Rays, and A's for starters. The Mets starting five are middle of pack without Harvey and top 12 with him. Obviously, with time and experience this rotation has definite top 5 potential. To say that, with Harvey, it is entering 2014 is, hopeful, but a tad premature.
I guess I am the lone dissenter. Despite the injuries we still have an abundance of outstanding pitching. S.A. says he will sign a veteran starter, and I take that to mean a quality veteran starter, like Bronson Arroyo, or maybe Josh Johnson on a 1 year incentive based deal. I also wouldn't be surprised to see him retain Harang for depth, depending on how he does in his few Sept. starts for the Mets.
Lets say we start the season with a rotation of Wheeler, Niese, Arroyo, Gee and Mejia. Syndergaard might have a tough time breaking into that rotation come June. With Harang available for an injury call up, the Mets still have Montero, deGrom, Gorski, (unles he makes the pen to open the season) Verrett, and possibly Peavey in the wings.
We need 2 outfielders and (probably) a shortstop over the winter. I don't think we will be able to find all our needs in the FA market, especially if we don't wind up with a protected pick. (although it sure looks like we will) I wouldn't hesitate to use one of those pitchers (not named Thor) to obtain the best possible player in trade. Montero is the most desirable, and if he would help bring us a slugging outfielder (CarGo? Giancarlo? Bautista?) or shortstop, (Tulo? Andrus?) I'd pull the trigger in a heartbeat.
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