St. Lucie finished their season. There’s always a chance that every player could become a successful major league baseball player; however, in my opinion, eight members of this year’s squad stand out as potential stars of the game. They are:LF Travis Taijeron – 188-AB, .303/.396/.564/.960, 9-HR, 27-RBI – Taijeron is a late bloomer who was picked in the 18th round of the 2011 draft. Last year (Savannah-St. Lucie), he produced 19-HR, 65-RBI, .839 OBP. This year, he led Lucy in hitting and his combined stats with Binghamton are: 23-HR, 69-RBI, .884-OBP. Like most young power hitter, he strikes out too much (130 in 416-AB) but where he goes in this game is up to him. He only hit .241 in Binghamton (228-AB) so you might see him return there before eventually moving on to Vegas, but he will be major league ready by opening day 2015 and the only question is whether or not he will be able to deliver enough to help this team.
C Kevin Plawecki – 204-AB, .294/.391/.392/.783 – Plawecki was promoted for the Binghamton playoffs and will return here next season to continue his climb to the majors. I think he’s the real deal and even has the potential to make Travis d’Arnaud a trade chip. He will be major league ready on opening day 2015.
1B/DH Jayce Boyd – 209-AB, .292/.372/.421/.793 – Boyd has been a breath of fresh air all year. He came to the Mets from Florida State where he was a hitting machine for three years. He led the Sally League this season in hitting (.361), but did slow down a little (.292) at St. Lucie due to a shoulder problem that prevented him from throwing. It had to affect his hitting (playing DH) though doctors did let him finish the season saying the injury would not be exasperated by swinging. Combined stats: .330/.410/.461/.871, 9-HR, 83-RBI. Knowing Boyd, he will continued to bulk up in the off-season (added 12 pounds of muscle this past off-season) in hopes of increasing his pop. The bottom line is the fact that it looks like the Mets are looking for a first baseman again your ETAs are 2014: Lucas Duda, Eric Campbell, and Alan Dykstra, 2015: Boyd, and 2017: Dominic Smith.
LF Dustin Lawley – 469-AB, .260/.313/.512/.825, 25-HR, 92-RBI – This is the wild card. This is the dark horse. This is the guy everybody is trying to figure out if he’s the right stuff. All scouting reports I have gotten out of St. Lucie says he is and that he’s capable of playing LF in the majors. The stats speak for themselves this year: 26-HR, 96-RBI, .518 slugging, .834-OBP. There’s also 112-K’s in 485-AB but who gives a shit if he can hit 26-HR’s and knock in 96 runs at CitiFied someday. Now, as I understand, they have him working with a first baseman’s glove. Good… left field… first base… you pick the position for him to play next year in Vegas. This guy will have 20 home runs there by the end of June. I anticipate quite the Vegas 3-4 with him and Cesar Puello and they both could be on the same plane (with Noah Syndergaard) in June 2014.
SP Noah Syndergaard – 12-starts, 3-3, 3.11, 1.21, 63.2-IP, 64-K – Thor’s pitching stats at St. Lucie are only a part of the story. He went on to dominate at Binghamton (11-starts, 6-1, 3.00), which included nine earned runs given up in his last appearance. This represented 50% of the total earned runs he gave up all season there. Mets officials wrote it off as missing a rotation spot. Combined stats: 23-starts, 9-4, 3.06. I don’t look for any winter assignment here and the Mets may even return him to Binghamton for the beginning of the 2014 season. I wouldn’t, but that’s me. There’s no rush if everyone (Wheeler, Niese, Gee, Mejia, Montero or Torres) stays healthy in the rotation. Either way, he will be ready to go to Queens at some point in 2014 and this will be when the rotation will really become talented. What a great fucking trade.
SP Matthew Bowman – 16-starts, 6-4, 3.18, 1.18 – Another breath of fresh air from the smart guy (13th round – 2012 – Princeton University). Bowman impressed everyone in Brooklyn last year (12-G, 1-start, 2-2, 2.45). He returned to be a starter this season at Savannah (5-starts, 4-0, 2.64), but was shuffled off to St. Lucie when injuries there left the team short on starters. Bowman settled in and never showed a reason to be sent back to Georgia: 16-starts, 6-4, 3.18. The combined stats were: 10-4, 3.05, 90-K, 31-BB, 96.1-IP and he was shut down in August when he reached his pitch count. This is the kind of guy that creates ‘good havoc’ in planning your future rotations. Look for him in Binghamton next year and did I mention he also played shortstop in college?
RP Randy Fontanez – 45-games, 9-7, 3.41, 1.19, 60.2-IP, 83-K – Fontanez was a starter that came out of South Florida University who debuted with Brooklyn in 2011 (12-G, 7-ST, 1-2, 2.82). There simply was no room for him in the 2012 Savannah rotation, so he was converted to a reliever, which has now served him well. This season for St. Lucie, he pitched in 45-games with a stat line of: 9-7, 3.41, 60.2-IP, 83-K, 17-BB. You have to love that K9 ration. Fontanez will pitch 2014 as a 25-year old so he does need to get going. I expect he’ll open up in the Binghamton pen, and, if successful during the first half of the season, will move on to Vegas. Remember this name. Real electric stuff here.
LHRP Hamilton Bennett – 38-G, 3-0, 1.96, 1.11, 46.0-IP, 48-K – Bennett has very quietly put up four nice stat lines for the Mets over the same amount of years… 2010 – Brooklyn: 19-G, 3.49… 2011 – Sav/StL: 35-G, 1.89… 2012 – StL: 41-G, 2.55… 2013 – StL/Bin: 45-G, 1.88. I have no idea why he has spent so much time with St. Lucie, but he will turn 26 next June. The stats are there. ETA: OD 2015
Erik Hudson -
Mack, there's got to be someone at AAA or AA that isn't close to an innings limit and can do better than an 11 ERA. Would rather see a kid get some experience than any more Dice-K.
Mack – Well, I was surprised the Mets let Dice-K go back to the hotel with them.
Putting him on the mound is a profound embarrassment right now and it should come to an end immediately. I’m telling you… the other players on the team HATE THIS. They work all year and this is the best the front office can come up with.
Here’s one of the problems… the PCL playoffs could go as far as September 15th, followed by a PCL vs. International League game on NBC on 9-17. They need all their own pitchers right now to try and win their own ring.
The addition of Adam Harang should help, but remember… Zack Wheeler is going to be shut down early too. The Mets are going to need at least one more starter, two if you drop Dice-K.
What a horrible way to end a disappointing season.
From ‘Hobie’ –
Mack. Looked over Victor Cruzado stats. He played 22 G in July (LF2, CF3, RF16, DH1) with a .350BA & .900OPS. Only 11 in Aug (nothing 8/07--8/17) with a .308/.400/.514/.914 for that month. Mostly DH'ing after his return. Was hurt I guess. He's switch-hitter, but not, as far as I can discern, a SS. Should be in that SAV OF next year if Champ Stuart is. Victor is month younger than stuart (21). My new Angel Cuan :-) who had a nice outing the other day BTW.
Josh Chapdelaine on Dillon Gee –
His Fielding Independent Pitching has never drastically differed from his Earned Run Average since he earned a full time role. If anything, he has suffered from poor Mets defense. His FIP is inflated this year because of his rough start, but has steadily declined since his start at Yankee Stadium. FanGraphs values Gee at 0.6 fWAR, while Baseball-Reference seems to value him much higher at 2.0 bWAR. It’s difficult to assert how much Gee has truly been worth to this club’s success in 2013, but he has pitched much closer to a two win pitcher than less than a one win pitcher based on his recent dominance. As Gee becomes eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter, the Mets should seek to extend the right hander rather than take him on a yearly basis. A fair comparison would be to model a contract after that of Jonathon Niese’s five-year, $27.25M extension with two team options. According to FanGraphs, the average value of one win above replacement is roughly $5M. The site values Gee at roughly $3M this year based on their model of WAR, but it appears Gee would be a solid value at $5M annually even removing the statistic. In a rotation that will spear headed in the future by Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler, Gee provides value in health, knowledge, and innings. He won’t light up the radar guns, he won’t be flashy, but he’ll be able to have flashes of brilliance in a rotation that has been decimated by injuries. http://aroundciti.com/the-case-to-extend-dillon-gee/
Mack – For some reason we keep looking for a reason to get rid of this guy. All he does is go out there and gives us around seven good innings every outing. I absolutely agree that locking Gee up is the way to go. You would then have two members of your young rotation under team control with cheap long term contracts. What better way to orchestrate a trade someday with one of them leading the way.
21 comments:
What seems to be the organizational report of Dykstra? Do you see this front office giving him a legit chance in spring training? Dykstra/Satin platoon, with Cory Hart in the RF/1B mix?
Do they start the year with Ike and give him a month?
There seems to be a lot of internal options at first so I think we won't see any moves there during the offseason. Based on Alderson's comments about Tejada yesterday, I have to believe we'll have a new everyday shortstop next season. My guess is we sign a shortstop and starting pitcher and trade for an outfielder. Maybe sign another OF to fight with young for the other spot.
Vegas's 3-4-5 could very well be Puello, Dykstra & Lawley. Each one of them could go 25-90 next year, not to mention a team that could include den Decker & Muno at the top of the order getting on base ahead of them and guys like Lutz, Tovar, Niuwenhuis, Campbell and may Vaughn playing big roles for them.
Not to mention a rotation that likely will include, Syndergard, Montero, deGrom, Mazzoni & Gorski and a bullpen that could be filthy, Church, Leathersich, Kolarek, Fuller, Carson, Rodriguez & Walters closing games. I'm expecting big things out of our AAA affiliate next year, assuming the majority of them aren't on the big league roster by May 1st since the front office didnt do its job and bolster the big league roster.
I might be a homer, but that team looks excellent on paper and doesnt include the guys Sandy will sign to minor league deals and start the season at AAA.
Kevin:
Boy, that was some shitty comments to say about your SS that will be returning to Queens this month. You just don't hang your player out to dry like that unless you are either done with that player or you are sending a sign to others. I still wonder if Valdespin was any influence on Tejada.
My guess at this point is Ike Davis will not be tendered. The Mets went down this road with Mike Pelfrey and, sadly, Davis is not worth $5-6mil at this point.
More money means more options.
I don't care about platoons. I care about winning. Josh Satin is the perfect option first baseman. He is hitting .343 against lefties and he doesn't embarrass himself in the field. He's half the solution.
Frankly, at this point, you go to camp with Duda and Dykstra and let them duke it out.
Regarding Dykstra, nobody has ever said anything nice about him. Weird. He is very clumsy but he gets the job done.
I have no problems with platoons on 1B and CF... IF... the Mets spend on SS and RF
The bats won't remain there for the season if they take off during the first half of the season. Trust me, if Lawley hits 20+ home runs before the end of May, he'll be in Queens.
Montero will probably be in the Mets rotation on opening day.
Yeah I couldn't believe his comments when I read them. Obviously I don't know Ruben but he seemed like a quite, hard working, young ballplayer. Apparently I was wrong. You don't go to the media and call your future shortstop a lazy piece of shit for no reason.
I think Ike is either traded or non-tendered. He will get another shot, it just wont be with us. Colorado makes a lot of sense to me, especially since I want to trade for Fowler.
Here's to significantly upgrading SS and RF this offseason.
I'm not looking to get rid of Gee necessarily but I see him as having great value in trade due to his performance and price tag.
I also think Plawecki is the future trade bait.
Mack,
I have always enjoyed watching Gee pitch, and for two main reasons. He is a pitcher, not a thrower, and he has a teflon mentality that nothing bothers him. He will never light up the gun, and he will get bombed 2 or 3 time a year, but otherwise this guy is solid and a contributor on a good team. With the improved OF D and a better glove at SS, he should continue to provide
SP3/4 level performance. He needs to stay put in a Met jersey.
Dice-K gets you your protected top-10 draft pick. We have the 10th worst record right now and running him out there a few more times should help protect that.
Tejada: I too have wondered if there was a dose of Valdespoison ingested. This was a guy who at 19 & 20 was deemed mature beyond his years. I hope it isn’t lethal, a 2011/12 Reuben allows resources to be put elsewhere.
I disagree. All of your points lead to him not needing to stay in a Mets jersey. He is a valuable trade piece. If Harvey didn't get hurt, I would have said that there was greater than a 50% chance he would get dealt in the offseason. He is a consistent, underwhelming starter. This Mets rotation will have 3 stud aces in Harvey, Wheeler & Syndergaard. Niese is solid as well. That only leaves a 5th starter spot for Montero, Mejia & deGrom/Mazzoni/Gorski. Then we have another wave of potentional back of the rotation starters coming for 2015-2017. I say we sign him to a Niese like deal then move him while his value is the highest. He's proven to be a durable & consistent starter. Lets trade him before he has too much of a surplus and nowhere to play all of these guys.
We could easily trade Gee in the offseason. Start the season with Niese, Wheeler, a free agent signing, Mejia & Montero. deGrom & Torres would be on standby incase of an injury from April-July. Syndergaard will get his call in July and take any available spot or push to a 6 man rotation. Filling Gee's spot would not be very difficult and he could greatly help us bring in a viable bat for this lineup. Gee could make sense for the Cubs in a trade for a shortstop. He could make sense for the Rockies in a deal for an outfielder. Almost every team in the league could use him as a SP3.
agree
and this is more reason why you tie him up in the off-season with a 3-5 year deal a la Jon Niese... you not only put to bed one of your 5 slots, but you make him look very attractive to another team for possible trade opportunities
you heard Sandy yesterday re: Harvey
he already is separating himself from the decision everybody close to Harvey knows he's going to chose
well, in that case, can we pitch him every 4th day?
I don't know. I haven't seen Tejada posing in a Marlins cap or showboating or taking a Verlander fastball to the family jewels sans cup...I think you're overreaching to blame Valdespin for Tejada's own undoing.
rotation of Dice-K, Swinden, Torres, Harang to close out the year. How on earth will we not have a protected pick?
Mack,
You and each member of the contributing writers run the best Mets site that I turn to. Great insight,scoop, and opinions on the prospects coming up. Prospects are all I have these days because I cant watch the games anymore. That lineup thay Terry carries out is too brutal right now. Kudos to you and the boys for your efforts. Appreciate...
Thank you Bud...
We make no money here and do this for the love of the game and compliments like yours.
Knowing Sandy will look to acquire a starter makes me think he's still looking to trade a young arm or two which I think is a mistake. Just keep what you got and spend on some bats already.
I think Ike is a much better ball player than Duda. Yes, I won't really care if they cut Ike loose, but if Duda is sill here next year then something is wrong. He is a horrible ball player.
Tejada deserves another shot. After this weeks talk about him from the GM and Manager, I think Tejada will get his ass in gear.
I really doubt Lawley is capable of hitting 20 homers before the end of May. He's Dustin Lawley, not Ken Griffey Jr.
agree with bud. You can read every other Met blog out there and none compare with the info and in depth coverage you get here. Now on to the team. I still believe Sandy will do what he can this off season to improve this team but his comments y/day sure didn't sound like he'll trade ANY pitching to get help and I don't see him signing anyone that will cost us our #1 pick next year if it's not protected. If it is he almost has to sign one of the top free agent OFer's probably Choo. The Bravo's just always look so much better than we do and when you stop and think that the gap between us and them in the standings this year is 43 games right now we better hope Sandy and Co. have a solid plan for this winter because we'll need all the help we can get along with improvement from the youngsters and still we'll probably only have a chance to fight for a wildcard spot.
Alderson will NOT sacrifice the number one pick.
That's not how he rolls.
Enjoy the Mets pitching... it may be all you have for a few years
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