From: Jan Groot -
Mack, Just a thought for you. Every week a different position to discus in the war room?
I know the Mets are set at 3rd. TDA looks like the future catcher. Perhaps even Lagares is the future in CF. But the rest is open for debate.
My first imput is SS. I would try to trade for Chris Owings. I would offer Wilmer Flores. Why? The Snakes are set at SS with Gregoriuos so they can trade Owings. The Mets are set at 3rd so they can trade Flores. This also means that Arizona can put Prado in LF now they traded Kubel away.
FYI...
Here are the SS that have one year (2014) left on their contracts:
Cleveland – Asdrubal Cabrera - $10mil – 27-yrs. old - .240/.296/.387/.683, 9-HR, 47-RBI
Baltimore – J.J. Hardy - $7.917 – 30-yrs. old - .255/.298/.437/.735, 23-HR, 67-RBI
Texas – Elvis Andrus - $6.725 – 2.26 - 24-yrs. old - .262/.323/.314/.636, 1-HR, 49-RBI
Philadelphia – Jimmy Rollins - $11mil – 34-yrs. old - .247/.310/.337/.647, 5-HR, 35-RBI
Los Angeles Dodgers – Hanley Ramirez - $16mil – 29-yrs. old - .346/.393/.634/1.027, 15-HR
43 comments:
The #1 player on my wish list for SS, that they would at least have some reasonable chance of acquiring, is Profar. I don't know what the Rangers would be asking in return.
I live in Texas so I follow the Rangers. Andrus recently signed an eight year extension. So Profar will not be playing SS for them anytime soon. He has much more value to a team needing a short stop, like the Mets than he does as a utility player for the Rangers. If the Rangers move him they likely will want an outfield bat, which the Mets don't have. Maybe a three team deal could get it done.
I agree with Jan on the Owings deal but only if we can't trade for Tulo. Certainly with the recent Ike Davis injury and the loss of playing time to evaluate him further my moves would be as we've talked about before here to trade for Tulo and sign Abreu for first base. With all the $$$ coming off the books and the major need for more power these moves would fill the gap in the middle of our lineup and allow us to keep our excellent outfield defense intact with Lagares, Den Decker and Young who also fills our leadoff spot. I could certainly live this lineup: Young-Murphy-Wright-Tulowitzski-Abreu-d'Arnaud-Lagaures and Den Decker. Even w/o Harvey a starting staff of Wheeler, Neise, Gee, Meija and fill in #5 with any mix of Montero, Thor, DeGrom etc. and there's no reason we can't compete for a playoff spot next year. Now has anyone else had enough yet of Dice-K? Geez he makes me want to see Schwinden back up here but I guess we all have to be very happy Boston beat us out on the bidding for him. Also are we all ready for a Frankie Frank sighting this month? So my question for you today Mack is who do you see at 1st base next spring and I was surprised with exclusion of Scott Rice in your bullpen for next year.
I don't think the Mets currently have the players to pull off a trade for Profar. The team is now pitcher thin as well as having no depth at any field position. It's a wonderful dream, but I just don't see it s being realistic right now.
I think the Mets have two choices here... play who you have (Tejada), or turn to free agency.
Elvis Andrus ss
3 years/$14.4M (2012-14)
8 years/$120M (2015-22), plus 2023 option
8 years/$120M (2015-22), plus 2023 vesting option
signed extension with Texas 4/4/13
$2M signing bonus.
15:$15M, 16:$15M, 17:$15M, 18:$15M, 19:$15M, 20:$15M, 21:$14M, 22:$14M, 23:$15M club option
2023 option guaranteed with 550 plate appearances in 2022 or 1,100 PAs in 2021-22 combined
2023 option becomes player option with trade or waiver claim
limited no-trade protection (may block deals to 10 clubs beginning in 2016)
if traded, Andrus receives full no-trade protection with new club
may opt out of contract after 2018 and 2019 seasons
Gary:
Right now... my first baseman out of the 2014 camp will be Ike Davis. All I can do speculate on is which player would I play that is currently under contract. I will stick with Davis until something better comes along. I would return Duda to Las Vegas as my emergency 1Bman and Josh Satin would become one of my 2014 utility players (2B, 1B, 3B).
For the record, I'm also giving back SS to Ruben Tejada until something better comes along. Quintanilla has made some wonderful plays in the field, but he will never make a hit once every four at bats.
I'm not happy with either Davis or Tejada's output, but, right now, they are they best we have.
Regarding Rice, I am going to elaborate more on this later on in the week, but my 2014 bullpen would be Torres, Parnell, Familia, Germen, Edgin, Black, and Aardsma. That's 7 pitchers. I chose Aardsma over Rice unless Parnell isn't ready. I would send Rice to Vegas and await the first injury
Hey folks... this is a good choice and, with the emergence of Profar, it's as much as salary dump for Texas.
It's going to cost you big time in prospects... that's what this team loves... at least three of them here...
Wilmer Flores, Rafael Montero, Gabriel Ynoa would be a good starting point.
I agree on the prioritization of a SS upgrade, with defense first priority. However, the guy has to be able to contribute a little on offense. Tulo would fit multiple roles, but his injury history plus cost in prospects would send me elsewhere. I like the OF of Young, Lagares, and DD, but they still need to add a professional bat. I would target Choo/Elisbury, whichever would accept the more reasonable salary. That means they need to find a cleanup hitter for #4. These exercises position by position are difficult because what they do in one spot effects another position. Back to SS, I don't think Texas will deal Profar or Andrus, word is they will deal Kinsler. I would target Ramirez on the Chisox - a little costly salary-wise, which should mean less cost prospect wise. This guy could bat 2nd vs. LHP and brings plus defense, bridging the gap to Cecchini.
I agree with Mack about depth. They just can't afford to trade any pitchers with Harvey's possible TJS.
Now, by July in 2014 that could change. By then they could have a lot more depth, even if Harvey does need surgery. They've had some top prospects miss a lot of the 2013 season and come next year, the Mets may be back to having multiple pitchers doing well in AA and above.
Sandy is going to need to open the check book because.in order to get a player like Profar or Tulo, you can say goodbye to Thor, Montero, Flores , and probably more. I just don't think that's the best way to build a sustainable winner.
I don't have the answers. Sandy has done great trading for young talent. Now he needs to get ML players to this team and the free agent market isn't that great. It lacks a bonafide power hitting outfielder which they need, so he may need to just rely on pitching and defense. Elsbury may be the answer there.
Tejada will be just fine if he plays great defense, as long as the lineup he's in is capable of scoring 4 runs a game. I'd be happy with him but a lot must break right next year, including Ike Davis returning as a legit power threat.
There's absolutely no way I'm trading the Rangers Montero,Flores,and Ynoa for a player that makes 15+ million dollars a year for the next several when he's blocking their best prospect at the SS position. The Rangers can either take 1 prospect for Andrus or eat that money through about 2020.
It's either Tejada, trade or free agent.
In terms of free agents, they could set the market early by signing one of Stephen Drew, Yunel Escobar or Johnny Peralta to a 2-3 year deal. Or they can wait for the others to sign first and grab whatever is leftover for a little cheaper. I like what Stephen Drew brings to the table. He's solid all around, not spectacular, but solid. Escobar and Peralta each bring something a little different to the table. Either of these three guys would be a significant upgrade on this team. Tejada is still very cheap and could serve as the primary backup middle infielder.
Trade market could see guys like Owings, a number of Cubs shortstops or even Jed Lowrie although I only way I think the A's would move him is if they were able to grab Peralta on a discount on a 2 year early in the offseason. I think the A's could really use his bat.
It's gonna be a very interesting offseason with plenty of options for upgrading this position.
Question of the day: Would you trade Montero, Flores, Nimmo and Ynoa for Tulo? That's 3 of our top 5 prospects although Montero is the only one in the top 100 (barely at #99). I would make this trade, which means Colorado wouldn't. He would most likely cost Syndergaard, Flores plus another top 10 piece. That would be a tough pill to swallow.
I don't think Andrews is worth the money, never mind the money + the prospects. Looking around there are really no good options here. Stick with a low cost defensive minded SS and sink your resources elsewhere.
There are a lot of better options out there than Tejada. Each of the playoff teams in both leagues have solid shortstops except the Reds & Pirates. If guys like Peralta, Drew & Escobar are good enough for Boston, Detriot & Tampa, they r good enough for us. Sign one of them, sign Kendrys Morales and trade for Fowler. That's my team for next season. Maybe even bring Byrd back if he's interested. Find us a veteran SP on a 1 year deal. Johan prob wants to go to a contender. I'm thinking Haren in spite the fact that they rocked him yesterday. Maybe even someone better for more money who we can flip at the deadline when Thor comes up.
This team really could have a chance at pushing for a wild card spot next year and much more in 2015
So...
it will cost the Mets too many prospects to trade for one of the top shortstops...
or... prospects are worth more than all-stars...
or...
look, the Mets aren't two deep anywhere.
The last two games continue to prove one thing... there was no team hotter in baseball than the Nats and the Mets shut them down.
Do not touch the pitching until the rotation is complete and healthy.
FA:
Clint Barmes (35)
Willie Bloomquist (36)
Jamey Carroll (40) - $2MM vesting option with a $250K buyout
Alexi Casilla (29)
Stephen Drew (31)
Yunel Escobar (31) - $5MM club option
Rafael Furcal (36)
Alex Gonzalez (36)
Cesar Izturis (34)
Derek Jeter (40) - $8MM+ player option with a $3MM buyout
John McDonald (39)
Jhonny Peralta (32)
Brendan Ryan (32)
I would throw a lot of money at Drew and, if he signs elsewhere, I go with Tejada
I am with Mack in that in light of the Harvey injury, tj surgery or not, I am not dealing any of the blue chip pitching prospects. Open up the checkbook to fill the power bat, lead off hitter, and SS holes. It can be done without mortgaging the future. Get a glove for SS to go with the one in CF. it will make the pitching that much better.
Look... there is a start of something good going on here past pitching.
The additions of d'Arnaud, Flores, Lagares, and Young have all paid dividends. Now den Dekker is up... I'm actually starting to sign off on Larages being a Carlos Gomez/Angel Pagan type centerfielder.
Still... these kids alone can't carry the daily load for the upcoming great pitching staff.
You go get this team TWO real every day baseball players, either on SS or in the OF and you may have a payoff team. Screw whether Wilpon pays too much. It's not yours or mine money.
I am all for Owings. Flores+ should do it.
We thought we ha our shortstop and first baseman set coming into this season and look what happened. If we go into next season with Lagares and Young both starting, what happens if one or both really struggle like Ruben did this year. I really think we need to trade for an everyday guy and bring in someone on a short term deal like Byrd or Hart. Keep Den Dekker and Young as bench/platoon guys. If someone struggles you have options that don't include Andrew Brown or mike Baxter.
The andrus contract has a player opt out after 2018, which makes it a 5 year 67 mm contract basically unless he busts, bc he'll definately opt out for another contract. this is actually a very tradeable contract for that reason.
Id like to know where the idea came that tulo is even remotely tradeable? He's their face of the franchise so even though he has big money coming there is no indication that he is available. Also, colorado isnt going to be interested in a 3b prospect like flores they have a kid playing their already, who is a better prospect then flores in Nolan Arenado, but I do think colorado would be very interested in Montero as he's showing an ability to pitch in thin air. Which makes me think Cargo might be the more reasonable target with Ike, Montero, DeGrom and Murphy being a starting point. Im not sure i do that if im Colorado but its a starting point
If its me Im looking at Arizona and strange as it may sound, Tyler Pastornicky of the braves. Blocked players who are young and at least defensively sound and andrus because he's more of a commodity then kinsler.
Not for nothing but given Arizona's preference for gamers i.e. white guys who would run into a wall, you might be able to get ownings for murphy
I really think we just invented the Tulo thing :)
In fact, I think it was me...
Chad, great point.... I don't understand why people are looking to trade the young pitching after what's transpired over the past year.
Harvey, Santana, Marcum, Mejia, Familia, Hefner, Niese, Mazzoni, Mateo, Pill, Fulmer, and Robles have all had injury problems this year. Some have lost seasons, others won't be back until 2015.
The depth isn't there anymore. The Mets will enter 2014 with a staff that will allow them to compete, but they will need to score some runs. Trading any of the young arms or proven starters just isn't the answer anymore.
The Wilpons will have to spend this off season because until most of these guys come back and prove healthy, the depth must be there in AAA in case another injury comes up. The free agent class isn't perfect, but guys like Elsbury and Choo should be considered before depleting the system of arms needed as insurance.
This is NY, they should easily be able to spend another 50/60 million, raise their payroll to a respectable 115/120 million range, keep their prospects, and still operate a big market team at a mid market level in terms of salary.
Isn't that a better avenue, instead of trading away young, cheap, and team controlled players?
Sign Drew 2/10, Abreu 6/50, Choo 5/60, Beltrán 2/25 . Extra 39MM a year.
LF Choo
SS Drew
3B Wrigth
1B Abreu
RF Beltrán
2B Flórez
C d'Arnaud
CF Lagares/ den Deker
SP1: Wheeler, NIce, MejÃa, Gee, Montero/deGrom
RP: Parnell, Germen, BLack, Familia, Edgin, Rice, Hawkin
Correct Mack .
THE WILPONS HAVE TO SPEND SOME DAMN MONEY!!!!!!!
This is bullshit!!!! The Mets have the chance to have one of the youngest and best starting rotations in the game and that's without Matt Harvey pitching in 2014.
They can't trade away their young pitching. After this season, they might have 50 million in salary commitments. Add another 50/60 million, raise the payroll to 115, which isn't an issue in Texas so it's shouldn't be one in NY, and sign two of the best players on the market. Just do it and keep the arms. Keep the position players too.
Sign Elsbury or Choo, and then sign Beltran or Bryd. Let Largaras and Den Dekker platoon or fight it out for an everyday CF job. Try and get a better SS without trading away your prospects, but if you can't keep Tejada. If you can get Abreu for 4 years and 50 million, do it, but if not keep Davis. If you can, trade Davis for whatever you can get, I'm sure he'd bring back a great bullpen arm.
We got to stop acting as if this team plays in Kansas City and make the Wilpons cough up some green. You can't spend 4 years building a farm system and trading away your best players, only to do the exact reverse and give up all your own young talent.
NY team, SNY, 25 million in naming rights, 50 million in MLB tv revenue, and God knows what else the mets have coming their way in revenues....
SPEND IT ALREADY...
One name not being mentioned for potential SS is Rafael Furcal. I doubt the Cards will bring him back after missing the entire season. He will be 36 next year, coming off TJ surgery and even in his best seasons is injury-prone but he can hit, field and even at his age still has decent speed. Furcal also has nearly 250 post-season ABs. The Mets could use that kind of veteran experience in the clubhouse-help bring a winning attitude and also see if he can help Tejada improve as a SS and hitter. They should see how he does in Winter ball and he's looking good then try to bring him in on short-term, incentive laden-deal.
Furcal is an interesting short term option.
Mets officials are very high on Gavin Cecchini but they don't ETA him until 2017. He's very young, and projects out as a damn good defensive player with the ability to hit for average, but very limited pop.
Think Bud Harrelson.
I still say that Tejada deserves one more shot.
I agree, which is another reason why Furcal makes sense. He would come in as starting SS for 2014 with Tejada as his back-up. Furcal can work with Tejada on improving his game and attitude. By mid-season if Tejada has appeared to turn the corner then the Mets have the option of flipping Furcal at the deadline. Also, it's remote that we would get more than 100-120 games from Furcal in a full season, with his age, injury history...so Tejada will have plenty of ABs and chances to show if he's the answer. Furcal brings both competition and teaching--two things Tejada needs IMHO.
I agree with you, Mack. The Rangers are a well run organization in perpetual win-now mode. If they trade Profar (they may prefer to trade Andrus and his contract though I feel it is not an unreasonable one) then I think it would be in a deal for a major piece like CarGo, Price or Stanton. I'm not sure they'd even trade Profar for a package centered on Wheeler or Thor.
I agree with all of this. Though I don't see Ellsbury as a fit for the Mets because he plays CF, which the Mets (hopefully) have pretty well covered with the cost-controlled Juan Lagares. I wonder if Ellsbury represents value (to SA) in a corner OF spot.
I don't love Choo for the Mets for the same reason - and because of age (especially in light of the Harvey injury - Choo will be 33 in 2015).
I'm thinking stop-gap in the OF for next year in the sincere hope that at some point Puello plays well enough in Vegas to get a shot at the full time spot in RF. SS is definitely where I'd make my biggest investment for 2014 and beyond.
I don't get the feeling that the Mets will ever again trust Tejada.
Tejada seems to me to have filled out this year. Its a small sample size, but, man, he had no range at SS. And he's so much like Murphy in that his value is so closely tied to hitting singles (he used to walk more, but that was when he was hitting eighth, in front of the pitcher), which, without power, speed or plus defensive skill, makes him a bleh choice for SS.
Andrus in a 'salary dump' would be great - but I don't see where the Mets can afford to trade the assets that it would take to get this done. As you guys have all pointed out, the injuries have seriously sapped the Mets' pitching depth.
I’d settle for a 2011/12 Tejeda which I still think is more legit than the 2013 version (lacking chemical data). Flores + ? for Lowrie (OAK) or Owings (ARI)…maybe, depending on the “+” necessary. Even a 3 yr average Tejada has a higher value/price ratio than Andrus IMO.
Spend the Andrus bucks on Abreu & Beltran.
The idea about trading for Tulo came from both the Rockies potential dealing CarGo because if salary concerns (Tulo makes even more money and for more years) and Troy's own statements last year that he expected to be traded. I don't think the Rox will give him away but I think they'd move him for the right trade package.
While I agree that the Mets are doing a good job in stockpiling pitchers and should continue to do so, making ONE trade of pitching for a bat won't destroy the system. The logic of holding onto pitchers because some get injured works the other way as well - we should've dealt him when we could have.
If the Mets could build a trade offer around Gee (pitching like a #2/3), Montero (potential top rotation pitcher),, Davis, Puello, and a lower level lottery ticket for Tulowitzki they absolutely should do it. The rotation would start out as Wheeler, Niese, Mejia, Torres, FA. Syndergaard would come up and take Torres's spot, bouncing him to the pen. The FA is there until Harvey comes back. The system would still boast Harvey, Wheeler, Niese, Syndergaard, Mejia, Mazzoni, Fulmer, Matz, Ynoa et al.
The Mets need offense and a patchwork lineup can't be counted on to win. Lets not half-ass it.
Adding Tulo through trade and 2 OF in free agency makes this team a real contender.
Enough of Tejada and no to Andrus's contract
you can really kill a 'War Room'...
To acquire Tulo, the Rockies would ask for Wheeler and or Syndegaard-maybe both considering the weakness of their rotation. Even for Tulo, would you seriously consider giving up one of those two in a trade? And any trade would almost certainly have to include at least one of them because the Rockies wouldn't settle for Montero, Gee or any other Mets starter/prospect starter as the centerpiece of any deal.
Ricardo,
Drew is making 10M this year alone. I would do a 3/25 contract for him. I'm sure he's been looking for a long term deal for a while and would take roughly 8M per year to get one.
If the Mets are gonna win the bidding war for Abreu, it's gonna cost more than $10M per year. I think if someone wants Abreu badly, he could negotiate at 6/80 deal which is still a bargain for a slugging 1B for ages 26-32 seasons if he pans out. I think sometime is gonna make this kind of offer.
look this is all a lot of fun to banter about but as I see it we'll finish strong enough to be outside the top 10 in next years draft and NO way Sandy signs a top tier free agent and loses the pick. So we better all remember that for "our" trade/signing proposals.
Yeah I can't see the Rockies even beginning to negotiate without Syndergaard as the first name the Mets offer. If you deal the face of your franchise, you better get back an ace or the next face of the franchise. Or if your Sandy Alderson, you could get both for a 40 year old knuckleballer.
Gary,
That is an excellent point that needs to be broughtto the forefront. If Harvey is out for 2014 and Parnell is very uncertain, I see Alderson once again biding time and deferring his "big" moves for 2015. That will really tick me off, and I can imagine the paying season ticket holders will be bugged to say the least. Best case scenario is that they finish without folding, and the kids play hard through game 162, but DiceK loses enough to sink them to a bottom 10 record.
Forget it about Tulo. It's not going happen. I just don't get this idea of trading young pitching when:
You are a big market team lucky enough to have some of the best young pitching in baseball.
You've spent years losing and trading star players to acquire it.
You have a minuscule payroll and could afford to buy the top four free agents on the market this off season and that would probably only increase the payroll to a mid market range at best.
By signing only two or three of those guys, your team would be even better than it would if you acquired the one star SS(Tulo), and you'd still have all your prospects.
So, where's the logic in trading away some of the young pitching? This is a NY team. It'll have maybe 50 mill in salary after 2013. You could reinvest another 50/60 and still have a low payroll for NY.
The Yankees are dropping to 189 million and their fans are SCREAMING!!!!
WTF!
Yes, the payroll is dropping to 40 mm next year. which is nice for the wilpons and I'm sure they'd invest another 40 without a problem, except.....
There have to be players that are actually worth the money or ya know, you can drop 100 mm for Bay and Perez again. bc that worked out well. dont spend just spend. Hey maybe we can get another guy at 35 mm over 4 years who cant catch a pop up. thatd be swell.
If anyone wants to show me the free agent hitter under 31 who is a game changer, not at catcher of 3b in the next three years ill be glad to sign up for it, but giving money to players who arent worth it for extended period of times is the greatest market inefficiency.
this is why we are talking about trading young pitching away.
Charley, get over the inability you have in letting go of ANY pitching. No one is saying the Mets should gut the farm but the options out there as FA this offseason aren't enough. Who are the top four FA's? There are plenty of players that will want more money than they're worth on the market but not many Id make a commitment to. Who is going to drive in the runs on the team?
The logic in trading the young pitching continually escapes you - you need a balanced team to win and the free agents hitting the market are mediocre. Obviously pitching is important but it can't be the only thing. The Royals have the best team ERA in the AL and they're going to miss the playoffs. Same with the Giants in 2011 (#2 in MLB).
Or Martin Prado and trash. Everyone thought Upton was going to cost an arm and a leg. There are always rumors of the earthshaking offers its going to take to move a player and yet they rarely (not never, but rarely) materialize that way.
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