Thomas Brennan - THE SUNDAY SCOOP - Post All Star Break Prognostications

by Tom Brennan

Hey, folks, we got an exciting 2nd half coming up - OK, it's only 67 games (likely 65 by the time you read this, but let’s not get technical). So how’s it look?  How’s it shaping up? Purty darned good, pardner, IMO.

Let me give you my breakdown, by player/position:

Jake DeGrom threw 148 innings last year.  It would seem the Mets might see in him another potential #1 level starter, and hence be very wary of letting him surpass 2013 by more than 30 innings.   So far this year?  112 innings.  178-112=66 left, so maybe 10 or 11 more starts?  That won’t get him through the end of the season.   Take out the 3 bad pre-All Star outings he had and in the other 58 innings, 10 runs, and 63 Ks.  Matt Harvey #s.  Cool.  And indicating a great 2^nd half is likely.

Assuming no major trades, is Montero a possible call up to replace Jake?  Well Raffie went 155 innings last year, and due to his oblique strain hiatus in 2014, he has tossed only 76 innings this year, so he has plenty of innings left in the tank of his Mercury Montero, thus I would not be surprised to see Montero scoop up Jake’s late season starts.

How about big Zach Wheeler?  The Wheeler Dealer threw 169 innings last year.  He also has to be viewed as another potential #1 level starter, and hence Mets will be very wary of letting him surpass 200 innings.   So far this year?  108 innings.  92 left, so figuring 13 more starts, he should have plenty of innings to get him through the end of the season.  If they make the playoffs?  That would be another story.  But he is looking really solid

lately.  Why not a great 2^nd half?

Is Syndergaard in the 2^nd half picture?   I personally would be very, very surprised if we see him with the Metsies this year.  Why?  If you guessed innings limit, you win!  Only 117 last year, so figure a 150 cap this year.  He is already at 80, so he has roughly 70 (maybe 80) left.    AAA starts and playoff start(s) would use all those up.  Hopefully, he is a Met come April 2015, and let’s avoid Super 2 machinations in 2015 with Thor, please.

In our “Shoulders, Nothing More Than Shoulders” segment, Jon Niese's shoulder only seems good enough to start 80% of a normal workload.  Will he need another second half timeout, or was his recent summer vacation enough to get him through what would be 13 more starts without missing a turn?  He’s already thrown 114 innings (major and rehab) this year – I’d be surprised if he is not shut down for the last few weeks of September, barring a pennant race.  But we may be in one.

photo by Mack Ade

And will David Wright's rested and then cortisoned shoulder inhibit his play?  He said when he returned after his week off that it felt much better, but he expected some discomfort could continue for the rest of the season.   I did not like the sound of that.  So will the old slugging David Wright return, or will we get Dudley Do Right instead?   Fingers crossed, I’m going for the Slugger picking up just where he left off before the All Star break.  Crushing long balls.

My insightful brother Steve (I have 5 brothers, so I need to specify) took time out from constant pleading for a Tulo or Giancarlo trade to steal NY back from the Yanks.  He asked, “Will Duda continue to be successful, or will pitchers adapt?”  In my opinion, both will happen...the pitchers will try to adapt and be more cautious, but I believe Duda will stay very aggressive on strikes while showing he can lay off balls...so he may walk more but continue to hit.  His problem in the past was laying off meatballs.  Look at his career splits when he hits with less than 2 strikes and hits with 2 strikes – an utterly astonishing disparity.  Babe Ruthian with less than 2 strikes, Ruth Buzzian with 2 strikes (Ruth Buzzie was a comedienne on Laugh In for those youngsters out there).  A big guy like Luke the Dude needs to savor meatballs, and lately he sure has. 

Another key to future Duda (and Met) success is not letting him start vs. any lefties. 7 for 47 this year vs. southpaws, and a career lefty slash of .216/.298/.328 makes a Lucas-must-sit-versus-all-lefty-starters policy with a key to success.  Campbell as the lefty starter will give them a potent 1B combo.  I see Duda at .280/.380/.500 in the second half. At least in 2011, when he hit .310 after June, he proved he can be a good second half hitter.

In the “Can We Catch A Break” segment, I ask: why can’t we catch a break with a red-hot Catcher in d’Arnaud in the 2^nd half?  I’m thinking we’ll get a continuation of his last 65 at bats since called up and his 55 in the minors, where he hit a combined .375 or thereabouts with tons of power, bodes real well for the 2^nd half (which is really only the last 40% of the season).

And:

·       Grandy – why can’t he have a big second half?

·       Lagares - why can’t he have a big second half?

·       Murphy - why can’t he have a big second half?

·       Bullpen - why can’t it have a big second half?

·       Left field – without Chris Young, how can it not be better?  LF can have a big 2nd half!  It’s good to get a little less Young sometimes.

·       Starters besides Jake and Jon - why can’t they have a big 2nd half?

·       SS – if Tejada continues to play as he has, why can't the SS spot avoid a bad 2nd half?  We could do worse (sorry, RK).  I'd still prefer the lethal Flores there every day, or maybe Reynolds soon, but nice to have immediate options if Tejada falters.

All in all, I am looking for a BIG 2^nd half!  hOW ABOUT YOU?

MINORS SEGMENT - Who's Hot and WHO'S HOT!

Some guys like to write about who's hot and who's not.  This year in the Met minors particularly, it's been more like who's hot and who's hotter. Hey, you don't get the top 4 teams (Vegas, Binghamton, St Lucie and Savannah) to be a combined. Games over .500 at - without having some blazing hot performances.  And sometimes from names the average Met fan is familiar with and other times by obscure names whose hot streaks scream, "I'm here."

Guys who have had super nova hot streaks include:

	1. Eudy Pina - Eudy Whoo-dee?  An unfamiliar name that has been tearing up St. Lucie all year. Well, not exactly all year...Eudy was hitting a robust .200 with a miserly 8 extra base hits in about 200 at bats through May 31, at which point, he must have said to himself, "Oh, its June, time to hit less like Chris Young and more like Yasiel Puig."  Since June 1, Eudy has hit over .380 with 20 extra base hits in 119 at bats.  Talk about making a 180.  Sweet.
	2.  Wilmer Flores - our slugger in hiding was hot in Vegas at 21 last year, cool at Citi due to injuries and sporadic use, and lethal offensively (muy mucho caliente – hope I got that right, I took French in HS) since his re-up in Las Vegas.  He's an offensive pit bull waiting for the Wilpon family to find him a happy home in Queens.  Ruff!
	3.  Dustin Lawley - was hot enough in 2013 to win FSL MVP honors, cold as ice thru May 20this year, and dropping more bombs than anyone in the organization since.  In June and July, in 40 games, Dustin has hit 10 doubles and 13 homers, and .280. Pounding. A future Met slugger on the Citi horizon?
	4. Matt den Dekker - - this is a guy who struggles everywhere he plays - then gets LOTS better.  After his failure in his most recent call up, he has smoked AAA in the 24 games since, going 35 for 85 (.410) with 16 extra base hits, 11 walks, and just 14 K’s (a huge improvement over his career K norm). And his great glove takes a little slack off his need for a big bat to make, and stick in, the bigs.  He’s gonna get there.  Watch.
	5. Travis Taijeron - - the other Travis is similar to Dekker in terms of struggling initially at different levels, but he is an extra base hit machine (almost one ever 7 official at bats) who has heated up in AA.  Some big K, big bang dudes have successful major league careers. TT has his work cut out for him, but don't rule him out.
	6. Akeel Morris - Akeel did not go from hot to hotter. He went from ice cold (in 2012) to furnace hot for the past year and a half.  Blistering hot.  Way better than his league.  On his way UP.
	7. Jack Leathersich - went from hot (but not so hot) to very hot.  50K’s and only 8 walks in 28 innings can rate as “flame on.”  He can be part of a Met bullpen Fantastic Four (or 7) soon.
	8.Dilson Herrera qualifies as hot to hotter, simply because he stayed as wonderfully hot after his promo to AA as he did while tearing up A ball for the first several months of 2014, well over .300.  Coming fast to a Queens-based stadium near you.
	8.5 - Wuilmer Becerra – the throw in 3rd player in the Dickey trade, and Toronto signed him as an international prospect at over $1MM, so he was more than a throw in.  WB is now 19, and had shown very little “hot” until this week – 260 career at bats prior to Monday, just 12 doubles, 2 homers, .243.  The problem is nobody bothered to flip his activation switch.  They did Monday, and in the next 3 games, he went 9 for 12 with 2 doubles and 2 homers.  Then another HR the next day.  The Cyborg lives, and only the Terminator can stop him now!
	9. John Mora - in answer to the question I hear from hundreds of people on the streets of Manhattan (OK, I’m exaggerating, at least I hear it in my own head) is "who the heck is John Mora?" My answer is "heck if I know”, but the dude is hitting .397 in the GCL, so maybe we'll soon find out.  Hey, .397, last I checked, is .397.
	10, Matt Oberste, 22 year old 1B in Savannah – obliterating Savannah lately.  OK, he wasn’t hot earlier.  But he went from cool to earth’s core hot starting on June 29 – since then, he is 31 for 66, with 7 doubles, 6 HRs and 21 RBIs.  Come on, that is unreal!

Two middle infield very special mentions that I left out of my Top 10 because I just like round #s (12 is not round) are Danny Muno and Matt Reynolds. 

·       Danny in AA last year was ice cold and then red hot from June forward.  Similarly this year, lukewarm until June, then an on base % of .425 and slug % of .530.  Nice first half in Vegas on his way to a major league career in some capacity somewhere. 

·       Matt stunk in 2013, adjusted his hitting style, and started hot in AA and then got HOT in Vegas. Making him a HOT prospect, as the 71st pick in the 2012 draft ought to be.  Needs a power infusion from Messrs. Lawley and Taijeron and he is good to go.

That’s all, fellow Met junkies.  Whaddya think?

Have a great day.