Michael Baron said tonight that Herrera is the best position player he has seen in the system this year.
I think he's right.
It's scary to think how talented this kid might be. Remember... the stats I listed above are not in AAA Las Vegas... this is a 20-year old playing in the 'prospect AA level', a level where most minor league players struggle.
It just isn't happening here.
My guess that, in a perfect world, the Mets would like to have the ability to trade Daniel Murphy in the off season for a major chip and replace him next year in Queens with Herrera, but rushing him past Las Vegas may not be a good idea.
Another scenario could be trading Murphy for a new shortstop, playing Wilmer Flores back on 2B in 2015, and letting him play Las Vegas until he's ready.
Either way, I think we can safely say we have a future star here.
6 comments:
Its pretty exciting. Figures its at the same position that is playing the best for us this year.
All we ever hear about is his bat. How is his glove and arm? Could HE be the answer to the shortstop woes?
He's played 258 games at 2B, 59 at 3B and 27 at SS. Would it be a case of another square peg hitter being pushed into a round hole or is he athletic enough to do it?
Oh, you left out his 22 SBs and his .374 OBP. Could he turn into a power/speed type of leadoff hitter?
from an early Pittsburgh scout -
A powerful Colombian infielder who'll probably settle at second base, Pirate prospect Dilson Herrera rose to attention-worthy status by hitting his way out of Rookie ball (.281/341/.482) and into low-A at the age of 18. Herrera has a nice speed/power combination (twelve steals, eight dingers in sixty games) and decent enough foot and glovework to cover shortstop if necessary. He's raw, like any teenage player, but he shows a strong work ethic and natural aptitude for the trials of the middle infield. If his power is legitimate, he'll be a fast-riser in the system.
early on from Amazin Avenue -
We’ll start with Dilson Herrera, who is the younger of the two at 19 years of age, which is entirely what makes him the better prospect. Herrera doesn’t have a lot of size at 5 feet, 10 inches, and he’s not a true speedster. I’d probably classify his speed as solid average and leave it at that. His arm is also lacking, the reason his domicile is to the right of the second base bag and not the left. But Herrera does have enough in the tools department to project as a solid starting second baseman. There’s some surprising juice in his bat, especially to his pull side, and I love hitters with quick hands, which he has. And while he probably won’t be a threat to steal 30 bases, he does have enough speed to swipe 15. Defensively, he looks to be an above average defender at the position. He has more than enough range, his actions look fluid, and scouts have generally been quite impressed. And while the arm wasn’t enough for short, it’s fine for second base.
So we have a good defensive second baseman with a little bit of speed and a quick bat. What’s the catch? Strikeouts, strikeouts, strikeouts. Herrera struck out in roughly 19% of his plate appearances between the Gulf Coast League and the New York-Penn League in 2012, and this season, the rate’s kept on climbing, up to 23.0% this season. If the trend continues as he climbs the organizational ladder, he’s going to struggle to hit .220. And while I like the bat overall, .220 isn’t going to cut it with his skillset.
Now, here’s the big question: can he cut down on the strikeouts? I think he can but maybe only to an extent. The first part of the puzzle is pitch recognition. This often comes with experience, and Herrera is just 19. As he ages and gets more plate appearances, he’ll hopefully learn to read breaking balls better--right now, he’s just too prone to chasing those down and away. He’ll also need to just ease up on his approach and tighten up his strike zone.
The tougher part of the puzzle, or at least the tougher part to predict, is his swing. Right now, it’s not exactly a swing geared toward contact. It has too many moving parts and requires him to commit too early rather than simply trusting his bat speed to drive the ball into gaps. Herrera begins by rocking his whole body far backwards and then tapping his front foot down before bringing his hands around and his weight forward. It does generate that surprising pop--I do love the weight transfer--but it also prevents him from adjusting on the fly. It’s also a big reason why he will pull balls on the outside portion of the plate rather than going with the pitch. Finally, he also needs to watch a tendency to wrap the barrel of the bat behind his head--this causes the barrel to trail behind his hands and forces softer contact. Coaches need to be careful here before messing with his swing: you’d hate to lose that weight transfer, but if the strikeouts continue to cause problems, something will have to give.
If everything works out for him and he develops a little more patience, I could sort of see him evolving into a .250/.320/.420 hitter with good defense. Sort of a Rickie Weeks with less pop and a better glove. But if it doesn’t work, the strikeouts could keep him stuck at Double-A.
The question about his ability to play SS has always been his wing and I don't think anything has changed on that. His K rate is down to 16.5% and his BB rate is a tick over 8%, so those are nice peripherals, especially at his age. I think the slash line projected may be a bit low, he may be able to hit near .300 and slug more than projected. If he were to keep the K/BB rates around where they are now and OPS near .800, he would be pushing All Star caliber. He may have taken one of the biggest leaps forward in all of the minors this year. I would project him to replace DM in July of next year, when a team on the cusp may really want DM bat and return a decent upper level prospect. I don't think the rest of the league values DM as much as Met fans, even if he does lead the league in hits; too many holes in the rest of his game to be elite
That was a pretty dismal display defensively yesterday by Murphy.
Still, he has a decent trade value.
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