10/21/14

Craig Brown - I May be Wrong but... 2015 Part 2

18 comments

I posted an offseason game plan for 2014 with very little success, but i'm not going to let that stop me from jumping in head first for 2015.. I would go into the winter meetings with 3 things in mind:

  1. Accqire more players that make our ballpark an advantage. Its always been my opinion, that its in the Mets best interest to build a team around the stadium rather than rebuild the stadium around the team...Gap hitting athletic types, that run the bases well, and play good defense...To go along with the elite young pitching staff that the Mets already have, would make Citi Field an advantage.. 


 2. Time to Raise the payroll. The Maddoff scandal was 6 years ago...The Mets are on the cusp of being a very good ballclub..the next step is to bring the payroll up into the 150-160 range...this is NY--If you want to make money, you need to spend money.. 


 3. Take back the back page.. If we're going to raise payroll, we need to give the fans a reason to come back to the ballpark--This team is desperate for a couple carefully chosen superstars.. Team Payroll is always a fuzzy issue, but most sites placed the Mets payroll in the 85 million range last season.. Subtracting the Chris Young contract, that puts the Mets payroll at 78 million before any raises or arbitration cases.... So here goes.... 


 MOVE 1 Scrap the entire coaching staff and start over. I would begin by targeting recently fired Ron Gardenhire..who has ties to the organization, and is well respected around the league..I would also look at Bret Butler for hitting coach, and Frank Viola for pitching coach 


MOVE 2 Sign LHP Jon Lester 8 years, 176 million Signing Lester for 8 years at that money is an overpay..but its also the only way he would consider playing here...Signing Lester right out of the gate sends a message to agents and players that the Mets are once again serious about winning..I also think that of the elite starters available, Lester is the best fit.. SALARY @ 100 million 


 MOVE 3 SIGN LHP Andrew Miller 3 years, 24 million I don't think you get Miller to sign here without signing Lester first..Adds stability to an already solid bullpen SALARY @108 million 


 MOVE 4 Trade RHP Bartolo Colon to Seatle for 2B Dustin Ackley Colon is the guy that needs to go, and Ackley has always been a personal favorite. Ackley plays averyage to above-average defense in multiple positions, and I think with a change of scenery could be a 20/20 guy.. SALARY @ 104 million (guessing here since Ackley is arb-eligible) 


 MOVE 5 Sign RHP Luke Hochevar 1 year, 5 million Former first overall pick that didn't pan out as expected but found a home in the bullpen. Injured all of last year, risk/reward signing. SALARY @ 109 million 


 MOVE 6 Trade RHP Dillon Gee, SS Matt Reynolds, LHP Josh Edgin, SS Wilmer Flores, 2B Dilson Herrera, C Kevin Plawecki to Toronto for OF Jose Baustista, SS Jose Reyes, RHP RA Dickey, C Josh Thole The Blue Jays are carrying a 140 million payroll for a 3rd place team in a hockey town...I beleive that payroll is unsustainable, and the time is right to pull off a deal similiar to what the dodgers and red sox did a few years back..the Mets get 2 of the most popular players in their history, and the Jays get some nice prospects and salary relief to the tune of 45 million. SALARY @ 154 million 


 MOVE 7 Non Tender OF Eric Young Jr. and SS Ruben Tejada I just don't see a roster spot for these guys..they'll both catch on somewhere. SALARY @151 million 


 MOVE 8 Trade LHP Jon Niese, RHP Bobby Parnell, 2B Daniel Murphy to Boston for OF Jackie Bradley Jr., 2B Mookie Betts, SS Devin Marrero 

 Its alot to pay for 3 unproven youngsters, but I value Betts highly, and Marrero and Bradley are both athletic and great defensivly..Niese, Parnell and Murph are all valueable, but there also non-essential...This could turn out to be a terrible idea this time next year..I also could look like a genius.. and the 2015 New York Mets: 1b Lucas Duda 2b Mookie Betts ss Jose Reyes 3b David Wright ci Dustin Ackley mi Devin Marrero c Travis D'Arnaud c Josh Thole rf Curtis Granderson cf Juan Lagares lf Jose Bautista of Jackie Bradley Jr. of Matt Den Dekker sp1 Matt Harvey sp2 Jon Lester sp3 RA Dickey sp4 Jake Degrom sp5 Zack Wheeler cl Jennry Mejia su Jeurys Familia rp Andrew Miller rp Luke Hochevar rp Vic Black rp Rafael Montero rp Jack Leathersich Final Payroll 148 million

18 comments:

Robb said...

the only things here that seem even remotely possible are move 1 and move 3.

I wouldnt do either of those trades if im the other teams. definitely not toronto and i think getting Betts would be harder then getting syndergaard would be.

take a look at overthemonster the red sox blog just to see how ridiculously their fans value Betts. and their thoughts on a Mets/red sox trade here

(http://www.overthemonster.com/2014/10/10/6956241/red-sox-and-mets-could-line-up-as-trade-partners)

id much rather give James shields 3/70 or 4/90 then Lester at 8 years.

Honestly though. id like move 1.

Thomas Brennan said...

Interesting, Craig, a lot to digest, and would require a lot of willing partners. Don't see Sandy being that radical.

On # 1, I guess we'll have to see where the fences end up. The deeper, the more desirable the gap hitter type. Shorter, we can join the long ball player derby.

I will read this again later, when I have more time to digest it.

Anonymous said...

1. Now is not the time to break the bank with payroll, not if you want to keep Harvey, Wheeler, deGrom et al. The payroll is going up without acquisitions.
Move 1-Not against new coaching staff, but no way they replace everyone at once.
Move 2-totally insane and nobody in the majors will throw that kind of money at a 30+ yr old pitcher, especially not a team that is stocked with high end, young and cheap talent
Move 3-almost as insane as move 2. The bullpen was rock solid in the 2nd half and there is more talent to come, so burning that sort of money on an unneeded reliever is crazy
Move 4- Okay moving Colon and I guess Dustin would be a good enough return
Move 5-See move 3, but if it were one year at $5M, maybe but even that $5M could be better spent
Move 6-Really? these are not baseball cards and Sandy is not going to dump all of that talent he has acquired for three players he has already dumped
Move 7-Tejada and Ey have no future on this team, so DFA for sure
Move 8- all for it, but no way Boston does that trade

as much as you may want the payroll to be $150M, it is impossible for the Wilpons to do. They don't have the operating cash flow, credit lines or even the personal wealth to throw that kind of money around. The Mets are 2-3 players away from being stocked top to bottom, why would they want to completely erase all of the past 4 years of pain to replace all of their young talent with over 30 players. Lester might be the craziest suggestion, the Sox already said that he is like family, but they will not give more than 4 years to any pitcher over 30. The Mets don't need starting pitching, especially one over 40 and one past his peak.

Joe F

Michael S. said...

Gardenhire as manager and Viola as PC would be great....but I'd rather Magadan as hitting coach.

Anonymous said...

I like your idea of Andrew Miller?
Don't like your idea of Lester,overpaid I is ready to break down! Smells like a Johan all over again?
I wish the payroll would hit 150 again,but if it does im hoping its in 4 years?
By then Harvey and others will be paid big bucks to stay?
Right now im just hoping for 1 OF,and maybe signing some pre-arb players.


Steve

Kevin S said...

You are out of your mind Craig. But nice try.

People keep saying that Shields will be cheaper but why would he accept a 3 year deal? Someone will offer him 5 since they don't want to sign Lester or Scherzer for 7/8 years.

eraff said...


Salvador Dali Hotstove!!!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

Soooooooo let me get this straight.
You want the Mets to sign Lester to a maga contract because he is so much better than who of the eventual projected rotation? Harvey?, Wheeler? deGrom? Syndergaard? Montero?

Then you want to sign BP arms. Did I mentioned that the Mets would have a BP that will include Black, Familia, Mejia, Parnel, Edgin and Torres?

Then you want to trade Colon for yet...wait for it...another 2B because Murphy, Flores, Reynolds and Herrera are not enough.

And since the Mets don't have enough projects, you want them to sign a failed one in Luke Hochevar.

Then you want to make this trade:
RHP Dillon Gee, SS Matt Reynolds, LHP Josh Edgin, SS Wilmer Flores, 2B Dilson Herrera, C Kevin Plawecki to Toronto for OF Jose Baustista, SS Jose Reyes, RHP RA Dickey, C Josh Thole The Blue.

And since that is not chaotic enough you also want to trade:
MOVE 8 Trade LHP Jon Niese, RHP Bobby Parnell, 2B Daniel Murphy to Boston for OF Jackie Bradley Jr., 2B Mookie Betts, SS Devin Marrero which I dough they would do.

So instead of Harvey, Wheeler, deGrom the Mets would have Harvey, Lester (150M or so), Dickey because you always need the 42 year old pitchers.

YADA YADA YADA are you trying to make sure the Mets never win? In what Bizarro world do the Mets sign a pitcher for 176M? a releiver for 24M?

I can only say "WAKE UP, YOU'RE HAVING A NIGHTMARE"

Thomas Brennan said...

Having thought through your audacious proposal, I side with the status quo, slightly tweaked. Let'd see what the arsenal Sandy has assembled can do, tweaked by incremental trades, not ones that radically transform us for better or, more likely worse over the next several years. Twas creative, though, Craig.

greg b said...

I love Bautista but I think its a mistake to trade top prospects for a 34 yr old.

Michael S. said...

Ditto

Craig Brown said...

Lol! Let's not forget I post this with the idea of re-posting a year later, and seeing how stupid..or in really rare cases...smart these ideas may be....

The whole point is that it be a little over the top...it wouldn't be much fun if my offseason game plan was to sell off Daniel Murphy for salary relief and sign 6 minor league free agents...

That being said I would like to respond to a couple of the criticisms

-Mookie Betts probably would come at a higher cost...that kid is gonna be great

-someone is going to sign Lester for a shit load of money...

-if you don't want to see ra dickey or jose reyes play in a mets uniform again then you and I are just different kinds of mets fans...

-I don't care that ra dickey is 42. I see him being an effective pitcher into his late 40's

Raff said...


** "Let's not forget I post this with the idea of re-posting a year later, and seeing how stupid..or in really rare cases...smart these ideas may be...."**

Craig, I like your Moxie, and move number 1 would be terrific, but for the the rest of it??? I don't think you need to spend a year of your life waiting.... ;-)

eraff said...

These are Bad Ideas that will withstand the test of time!

;)

Art Pesner said...

Are you serious? Mostly bad to horrible ideas. No to an 8 year contract to Lester; no to trading for a 42 year old pitcher; and Boston is not trading Betts.

Christopher Soto said...

I must admit Craig.

These are some far fetched and quite frankly poorly thought out ideas.

1) the entire staff does not need to be fired. We need players, not coaches, although bringing Magadan could help immensely

2) Why would we spend $176M on a pitcher when we potentially have 4 guys just as good as him under team control?

3) Spending on the bullpen is always a bad idea. Besides that our late inning spots are already in the capable hands of Parnell, Familia, Black, and Mejia

4) Ackley is no longer a prospect. He's 27 and has posted 3 straight years of below average OPS numbers. No thanks.

5) I like the idea of Hochevar but you are severely over-paying. He'll be lucky to get a major league deal coming off of Tommy John Surgery. I'd throw a minor league contract with an invite to camp though.

6) With the Sox and Yanks being weak, The Blue Jays are trying to compete in the AL East, especially since the O's may be losing some big pieces. They are not going to sell Bautista or Reyes (who might I add had a worse OBP then Ruben Tejada).

7) I agree with this one....

8) The Sox are not going to sell Betts and JBJ's offensive stock has severely fallen. Juan Lagares at this point is miles ahead of JBJ so no its a bad trade. Plus Marrero adds no value if your trying to acquire Reyes who still has multiple years left on his deal.

Raff said...

C Soto- No doubt, Tejada isn't blowing anyone away with the bat, but he's competent at short. Competent. And frankly, he's the only guy in the Mets system who I can say that about. Additionally, there's nobody in the system who has proven that they can deliver anything better with the bat, at that position, for a full season. Further- If they're contemplating moving Murphy in exchange for some player at a position other than SS or 2nd, they'll have two holes to fill in the infield, with no proven existing commodity at **either** position. Tejada should be tendered regardless of whether or not they trade Murphy. If Murph stays, let's allow Herrera, Flores, et al to win the position on the field. At that point, Tejada becomes a utility guy, an injury fill-in, a late inning double switch, or he gets moved in a deal, if the other guys prove they can play. Final point- you know what Tejada is- a punchin-Judy .240 hitter who makes the routine plays- I'm hopeful that they figure out a solution to left field, and I am equally concerned over what our 3rd baseman is and whether his problems can be resolved- which I suspect are physical ailments with a current unknown disposition.

Anonymous said...

You hire some great writers, Mack. Top quality...

Mack's Mets © 2012