10/18/14

Morning Report – October 18 – George Greer, David Wright, Jeurys Familia and Jenrry Mejia, Dario Alvarez, Bartolo Colon

11 comments


Todd Gold ‏@TGold_PG  - #Mets 2B LJ Mazzilli showed controlled aggression at the plate, very solid offensive 2B profile. Geared for hard LDs, will hit a few out too


Adam Rubin

George Greer, the popular hitting coach at Triple-A Las Vegas, has been hired away by the St. Louis Cardinals, a baseball source told ESPNNewYork.com. Greer, a former Wake Forest coach, has been credited with helping several Mets players, including Travis d'Arnaud during this past season. Greer is expected to oversee a hitting program for the Cardinals system. http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/95850/source-vegas-greer-hired-by-cardinals?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

            Mack – IMO, this is a big loss for the Mets. Greer has done a wonderful job for the Mets at many levels.

You have to wonder if this is tied into the Mets quest to name their own hitting coach. It sure looks like Greer wasn’t going to get the job.

Big loss here.




What is going on with David Wright? The Mets captain went from sinking ship to sunk with the worst season of his career in 2014. His .269 average is poor, but you could live with it if he hadn’t lost his power completely. Not only did he hit just eight homers (the third straight year he’s declined), he was only fourth on the team in extra-base hits (39). The Mets better hope it was just a balky shoulder.  Grade: D  http://www.metro.us/newyork/sports/mlb/2014/09/30/mets-2014-report-card/

            Mack – ‘D’ is a pretty harsh rating… I’d say C-. One must write-off 2014 as an injury caused problem and the assumption is Wright will return to a better level in 2015. Now, we just have to determine what ‘better’ is. How is it that these ballplayers that sign a long term contract seem to drop a tick or two the next day? There’s 20 HRs here… I know it but I’m not convinced he should be batting third anymore, which will be complicated even more if the Mets go out and sign another legitimate bat for 2015.






Jeurys Familia and Jenrry Mejia. Finally, the Mets bullpen has order and clarity. These two relievers stabilized the bullpen for the final four months of the season and give the club two great building blocks going forward. Familia was among the most heavily used and best relievers in the NL since May and Mejia took to the closer's role with flair. http://www.nj.com/mets/index.ssf/2014/10/mets_7_best_things_about_their_2014_season.html




Dario Alvarez - Alvarez didn't get much of a chance to pitch in September, but he's a young lefty with enough fastball velocity and a decent breaking pitch, so the Mets are going to want to keep him around, if for no other reason than the fact that they don't have a lot of left-handed depth in their farm system. There's little harm in keeping Alvarez around, although his performance in the AFL could signal whether or not he can pitch in the big leagues. http://www.rantsports.com/mlb/2014/10/10/determining-fate-for-each-member-of-new-york-mets-bullpen-in-2015/#slide_25

Mack – I would expect that Josh Edgin will give up the ‘LOOGY’ role in which you sometimes pitch to only one batter per game, and that will be turned over next season to Alvarez. I know a lot of you were hoping for Jack Leathersich to work his way into this role, but it just doesn’t look like he is developing into the kind of left hand control relieve the Mets need here.



I keep making adjustments to my (own) predicted rosters and I’ve placed Steven Matz back on the Binghamton roster to open the season. It wouldn’t kill him to start 4-5 more times at the AA level before joining the mess waiting above him at AAA-Las Vegas.

Right now, my rotations going into spring training are:

Mets (6) – Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Jacob deGrom, Bartolo Colon, Dillon Gee, Jon Niese

Las Vegas (9) – Noah Syndergaard, Corey Mazzoni, Tyler Pill, Gabriel Ynoa, Rainy Lara, Darin Gorski, Greg Peavey, Logan Verrett, Matt Bowman

Binghamton (7) – Steven Matz, Kevin McGowan, Domingo Tapia, Luis Cessa, Michael Fulmer, Luis Mateo, Michael Koch

Gorski and Peavey has more to worry about since they will play 2015 as a 27-year old.

My guess now:

-         One of the Mets rotation pitchers will be moved in the off-season

-         Mazzonni will join the Mets pen

-         Gorski will join the Vegas pen

-         Fulmer will begin the season on the DL





A scout on Juan Lagares

“For anyone who underestimates the value of his defense, just ask his starting pitchers what they think.  Anyone who doesn’t think he’s terrific isn’t paying attention. He still has a ways to go. He continues to learn plate discipline. I think there’s more power there. He’s already a good base runner. In the NL East, I like him over Denard Span, B.J. Upton, Ben Revere and Marcell Ozuna. He’s at the top of the division.

Mack – I’ve said this before. You want to read as much information you can get your hands on from scouts of other teams. They have the best knowledge of how your players stack up with the rest of the league.

As for what this scout said, this is the kind of stuff you want to read… and, I agree with him. I think there is some more power here and we started to see it near the end of the season.


Juan Lagares and Jacob deGrom… two reasons to never give up on the organization.



Beisbol.org on Bartolo Colon -

I had Bartolo Colon down as a candidate for minor improvement in the second-half, not quite what I had envisioned for Brandon McCarthy. Bartolo’s first-half ERA: 3.99 in 121.2 innings pitched. Bartolo’s second-half ERA: 4.24 in 80.2 innings pitched. This sounds like I picked the wrong path for Colon’s second-half, but there was less of a change than just ERA presents. In the second-half, Colon’s strikeout rate increased, home run rate declined, his home run-to-fly ball ratio stabilized, but Bartolo got some bad breaks (and three notable poor performances) in the second-half. It may be worth noting that his FIP actually declined in the second-half (3.66 to 3.44) if one were to put value into that. You could classify this pick as a swing and miss, but for the reasons listed I would put his performance level as roughly the same as it was in the first-half.

Mack – I still have no idea what the Mets are going to do with all these pitchers, but, for now, I’ll at least keep you abreast of what’s being written about them.

I really wish the Mets had room to keep this guy as their SP5, but I just can’t see how. Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, and Jacob deGrom have sewed up the first three slots. We’ve discussed this a number of times and we all know how many guys there are competing for the other two.

Can Colon bring a return in a Hot Stove deal? Well, if he could, why didn’t someone claim him when the Mets designated him for assignment?

Or should the Mets keep him in 2015, use him in the same role Dike K played this past season (long man/emergency starter)?


11 comments:

Thomas Brennan said...

Morning.

I sure hope Fulmer AND Mateo are ready to pitch day 1. Fulmer's procedure, I thought, was like Familia's and Mejia's, so for him not to be ready? That would stink.

They almost have to move a minimum of 1 starter - that logjam is nuts. Nothing like the Mets have ever had before.

If Cards want Greer and we did not keep, on the face of it, it seems a flawed decision. Cards seem to do so much right
As much as Leather has less-than-excelled vs lefty hitters, he's done fine vs righties. All bullpen innings eaters need not be righty.

Mazzoni for instance might be better in pen - or might not. He allows a lot of baserunners.

Mazzilli has greatly impressed me in 2014. Wondered given his age going in...proved me wrong.

Anonymous said...

I am still in favor of leaving Harvey behind and starting with Colon, Niese, Wheeler, deGrom and Gee. Look to move either Colon (with cash considerations) or Gee in early May, when some team is always looking to replace a TJS guy from April. If one of those TJS guys is a Met, you hold both. Not a terrible rotation to start and bring Harvey up May 15, with no innings limit and look to graduate Matz and Thor in late June, when the remaining Colon/Gee and Niese get moved along with Murphy. None of these guys have top shelf value, but values tend to be exaggerated in July, when contending teams are looking to fill needs with cheap and short term talent, like all of the above listed.

each has value to start the season for the Mets and their trade value with likely be at the highest next July, which is coincidentally when the Mets hope their graduates (Thor, Matz and Herrara) are ready to ascend.

Gnoa, Peavey and Pill to Vegas before Matz? if the plan is July, you have to start him at AAA

Anon Joe F

Mack Ade said...

Morning Tom -

Yeah, Greer is a big loss.I understand the Cards are going to have him develop a special program for all the bats in all the levels.

George didn't like reporters so he didn't like me... could have been something that happened when he was at Wake Forest, where he still is a legend.

Mack Ade said...

Joe -

Morning.

There just is so much pitching in this system right now. And below them the John Gant guys are pushing to rise.

I simply can't imagine not having "Harvey Day' on opening day. What a complete promotional disaster that would be.

Anonymous said...

I think that winning will ultimately promote this team back into the spotlight and I believe leaving Harvey behind is part of a really solid plan to advance in 2015. Harvey Day will be a one day novelty and will be forgotten overnight, especially if it is opening day and he doesn throw a no hitter. It is in the best interest of the organizational plan which is about to come to fruition to leave Harvey behind. Mack-I do agree that there are a lot of arms out of Low A that need to move, but graduations and setbacks have left STL pretty bare of pitchers pushing up on AA. I think Vegas starts: Thor, Montero, Matz, Mazzoni, Verrett and pick your 6th, but I think Gnoa stays at AA, he has been pushed a little faster than some others and has not had the sort of dominant success at any one league, so see if he can master AA and replace one of the graduates in June for Vegas.

I have said it before, I urge patience and caution for just a little while longer because I think the Mets are going to be in an awesome position to deal in July with quality ML players and young talent ascending, not to mention a ton of salary relief. I think this team will contend for the playoffs next year with only minor modifications and I want Harvey toeing the rubber in the Autumn, not creating a media distraction of whether he is going to get shut down in a playoff chase. It was a media nightmare for Strasburg and Harvey is just the sort of ego that will take it so over the top and distract the team. Staying in FLA is the best course of action for the team and those interests cannot and should not be subordinated to the ego of Harvey.

Anon Joe F

Mack Ade said...

Joe -

I have no problem with your plan. Being conservative at this point will only benefit the team.

I know in my heart that this rotation will not be complete until it is Harvey, Wheeler, deGrom, Syndergaard, and Matz.

Once that happens, anything that develops below that has to have incredible talent to break through that talent barrier.

Michael S. said...

Mazzili has been a nice surprise. All of a sudden we have a wealth of middle infield talent.

With Alvarez, I get the feeling we're going to get to a completely homegrown bullpen. Mazzoni, Alvarez, Black(ok, but he barely played for the Pirates), Edgin, Familia to begin with. Whether Mejia or Parnell close, that could be a huge strength for us - young, talented, cheap, and under control.

Richard Jones said...

I don't see Matz with the Mets at all in 2015. It is no further along now than Syndergaard was a year ago. So barring injuries I see Matz getting a full year at AAA. Trading away a couple of starters and an injury could change that.
I see the Mets rotation as Harvey, Wheeler, deGrom,Colon, Gee or Niese. Syndergaard or Montero will be next in line ahead of Matz.
I don't know if the Mets will consider Meijo for a starting role. I still think he is a starter and a good one. Last year he was coming off of two surgeries. He lacked endurance and couldn't get past the 5th. A year of being healthy and I think they can stretch him out into an effective starter. It would take Parnell showing he is ready to close and a few starters being trades for that to be a consideration but I could see that before I see Matz in 2015. I think Harvey, Wheeler, deGrom, Syndergaard, Matz will have to wait until 2016. I am looking forward to that also. I just hope the Mets don't trade Wheeler or Sydergaard unless they get back something special.

Charles said...

Why is Edgin, who pitched fabulous, giving up his loogy spot? If anything, I could see Alvarez as a 2nd lefty it back up a AAA along with Leathersich.

I think Edgin's role is as solidified as Familia's. He's cheap and extremely affective.

Bill Metsiac said...

An under the radar but effective guy in the LOOGY role in '14 was Dana Eveland. Why not bring him back for a year or less until Alvarez and Leather are ready?

Mack Ade said...

My guess is the second lefty that will come out of the pen isn't on the team as of now

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