Morning Report – October 16 – Matt Harvey, Jeurys Familia, Travis d'Arnaud, Dario Alvarez, Mookie Betts, Noah Syndergaard,


Kevin Shelly asked –

In your opinion, what are the chances that Matt Harvey doesn't start opening day with the team and starts the year in Extended Spring Training instead. With the lack of a 5th starter needed for much of April, I think this is the smart move as I'd much ether have Harvey in September/October than April.

However, I don't think Harvey would be too pleased with the route which could drive a wedge between the team and their ace (perhaps even further than it already is)

Mack – Hey Kevin, sorry for all the trouble you are having with the comment section of the site.

I really can’t see any chance of Harvey not taking the bump on opening day. His arm could be falling off but the last person that would be filled in on the details would be the trainer.

‘Harvey Day’ is one of the few things these fans have left to root about. He’ll be there.

Jeurys Familia, reliever  -  Not every prospect the Mets had was going to be able to fit in the rotation. And they appear to have found Familia a nice role in the pen. He wasn’t perfect, but his 2.21 ERA led the team (minimum 50 IP). He just needs to cut down on the walks a little.  Grade: B  

Mack - Like Jenrry Mejia, Familia is making a perfect example about how a failed Mets starter can get a second life through pitching in the pen. Yes, some like Collin McHugh do move on and find success elsewhere, but most, like Josh Stinson and Chris Schwinden, don’t. I’ll keep my lobby up. Maybe these two guys can sit down Rafael Montero and tell him about the good times they have spitting out nut shells out there in right field.

Travis d’Arnaud

            According to Zach Sanders’ EOS Catcher Rankings, last season TDA finished under replacement value (Kurt Suzuki/$1.00) at #17 overall with a 5×5 line of 13HR-48R-41RBI-1SB-.242BA in 385 AB’s (108 G’s).

            For his 2015 projection, the difficult thing for me to project is the games total. The rest is a bit easier excluding bad luck, but…

            Steamer’s 2015 Projections are already up FanGraphs! I think d’Arnaud’s projection is right on: .253BA-18HR-2SB-57R-65RBI in 128 games. http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/travis-darnaud-tda-less-tbd/

            Mack – Would you be happy with these results? 18-HRs and only 65-RBIs?            Frankly, I wouldn’t be.

            I need d’Arnaud to finish above 20 home runs and produce at least 75 runs batted in because, if I was the manager of the current team, I would be batting him either 5th or 6th and if the ribbys don’t come from this place in the lineup, they come from nowhere.

            I assume the 128-game projection is simply based on wear and tear of being a catcher, not another injury.

Dario Alvarez replaced Cory Mazzoni at the last minute on the AFL roster after he spent September with the Mets but rarely got a chance to pitch. Alvarez moved quickly up the farm system this year, but he doesn't have a lot of experience against upper level hitters, which is something he'll get in the AFL. The Mets need to find a lefty in their bullpen, and Alvarez pitching in the AFL will give some insight on whether he can be that in 2015. http://www.rantsports.com/mlb/2014/10/07/arizona-fall-league-preview-for-new-york-mets-prospects/#slide_3

         Mack - It's obvious that Alvarez is now on a fast track. It's not just the September stint in Queens. He's pitching winter ball in hopes of becoming the next lefty out of the pen and the first hit he gave up there was a home run to Peter O'Brien

Comment From Bomok - I really could use your help on this one. What would it cost the Mets to trade for Mookie Betts? How close would a package of Jon Niese, Daniel Murphy and Kevin Plawecki get?

Dave Cameron: Why would the Red Sox do that? If they trade Betts, it’s for a superstar under team control for a long time, not a collection of bit pieces.

Mack – See? ‘Bit pieces’. This is all the Mets are offering for a prime time outfield prospect. I keep saying the same thing… if you want someone with this kind of potential talent, you have to offer the same. Zack Wheeler gets you Betts. Noah Syndergaard would probably only get you close. Niese and Murphy are old news in a deal like this. Play Plawecki another year in AAA and pray he excels.

Comment From The Big Dipper - More likely that Noah Syndergaard spends the next 6 years pitching for the Mets or gets moved in the offseason for a big bat?

Jeff Sullivan: Mets, although he’ll probably just lose one of those six years to injury.

Mack – Every Mets ‘expert’ (another word for ‘fan’) knows this is the main trading target this off-season. My guess is he’s a goner and all I hope is the return will be worth it.

MLBTR.com on the Mets –

Some reports indicate that total spending is likely to remain in the ballpark of last year’s mid-$80MM Opening Day payroll. Of course, as Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com explains, that number looks somewhat implausible given the current slate of contracts. And the Mets seemingly operate with a flexible budget for player spending, anyway. With $54MM in contractual guarantees and about $30MM in potential arbitration spending still to go, the tab is already set to outstrip last year’s starting point, even before accounting for any new additions. Beyond simply adding some cash to the ledger, the club could potentially free more dollars by reallocating resources: a sacrifice of some pitching depth, for instance, might well be worth the commensurate risk to achieve near-term upside by upgrading in the outfield or middle infield.

In the end, the Mets have the talent in place to make the fabled “meaningful games in September” a reasonable expectation. And the possibility of a full-on breakout cannot be discounted, though that would require several things to turn in New York’s favor. (Interestingly, there are plenty of parallels to the 2012 Nationals.) Alderson now seems to have many of the cards in hand that he set out to find; all that remains is to play them. 

Andy Martino on moving fences –

As Kristie Ackert reported on Monday, the Mets will indeed make minor alterations to their outfield fences, yet again. The specifics are not yet clear, but will be minor and involve right field and right-center.
The first thought is to wonder if this will adversely affect the Mets’ strength, pitching. If David Wright and Curtis Granderson pick up a few more homers, won’t the opposing teams do the same?

It’s a fair question, but Sandy Alderson makes decisions based on data. Whether or not you like Alderson’s moves, there is no question that his process is thoughtful and deliberate; if the printouts told him that the new dimensions would undermine Zack Wheeler, the GM would not make the changes.

But we shouldn’t conclude this discussion without also criticizing the Mets. While altering the ballpark is a fine decision, it also feels like yet another move that isn’t the only thing they need to do: Spend a bit more money, and find better players.

The payroll has been too tight for years, and when Alderson has chosen free agents, he has often missed. The gap between the Mets and the teams playing this month still feels vast, and here we are, talking about the walls again. http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/baseballinsider/reasons-good-week-yankees-playing-ny-mets-fences-point-blog-entry-1.1974575

Bernie Pleskoff on Matt den Dekker -

den Dekker's defensive ability could be helpful to the Mets as a fourth outfielder. I see him as a quality center fielder or left fielder who takes good routes, has good range, and gets accurate reads off the bat. He has good baseball instincts. den Dekker doesn't have the type of power usually required of a right fielder, but he could certainly assume that position if needed. His arm is strong and accurate. He can make all the routine plays, and some of the more spectacular variety.

den Dekker can steal bases and will get better at that craft once he gets more experience against the pitchers he is facing. His technique is good for now as he gets a good jump, but he still needs to refine his base-stealing mechanics a bit and trust his abilities. http://m.mets.mlb.com/news/article/98470454/defensive-minded-matt-den-dekker-an-able-fourth-outfielder-for-mets

Mack – I want everyone to accept den Dekker as a future member of the Mets outfielder, but not as a starter. I take that back… he would start only if Juan Lagares was injured. Den Dekker has showed no ability to hit against left-handed pitching which limits his future as a starters. He has never had a hit against a lefty throwing a curve ball. Gee… wonder what you should throw this guy.

He’s an outstanding defensive centerfielder… maybe better or, at least, the equal to Lagares. But his bat is way behind. Pencil him in as the 4th outfielder and go get a starter during the off-season.


Thomas Brennan said...

If the Mets have to thrad Thor to get Mookie, can we say that all Betts are off?

Dekker was much better 2nd half than first half due to his hitting stance change. So one would presume his lefty/righty splits followed suit and got better in the second half.

I don't have 2nd half splits, but for the whole AAA season, he was up 94 times & was .272/.379/.444. I've seen worse. Then was on base 8 of 20 times with the Mets vs. lefties.

This guy has more under the hood than we give him credit for. While we sleep, he is in the garage figuring ways to get more horsepower out of his Camaro, so to speak.

Thomas Brennan said...

"Thrad" is "trade" by the way.

Thomas Brennan said...

When it comes to the seeming very limited move in of outfield fences, I now understand that I am quite foolish and that ownership knows much better than me, so I should keep my mouth shut and sit staring in awe at their radiant brilliance. In other words, they've made their bed, they can sleep in it.

2015 will be the canvas on which their limited decision will be painted. Perhaps they can score as many runs at home as on the road for once.

Christopher Soto said...


The fence movement is hardly limited...

Based on rough back of the napkin math from the photo when comparing the distance between fence posts and distance between the dirt line and the old wall.....

I'm estimating that at its deepest point....right centerfield is being brought in about 15 feet.

Right Field will not be worked on until right center is complete. I would estimate that they will bring that RF indent in about 5 feet.

Anonymous said...

I think Harvey starts down South and really should as it is in his best interest to play Sept games; that Sandy will derive some joy out of asserting the dominant control is really secondary. I would be as excited as anyone to see the Fab Five toe the rubber, but if giving one up gets a Betts type player in return, I would have to be for it. If you trade Thor or even Wheeler, what you are looking to replace is a solid #4 or 5 in return for your young, under control superstar in the OF. If the Mets did not have remaining arms who are projected at 1-2-3, I would be hesitant to give, but it will be a lot easier to fill out their rotation without one of them than it would be to get the sort of OF that Betts projects as
Joe F

Thomas Brennan said...

Chris, I hope your napkin calcs are spot-on. If so, it will put a smile on my face.

Why the Mets can't be transparent and just say now what exactly is planned is beyond me.

Mack's Mets © 2012