10/29/14

The Morning Report – October 29 – Keith Law, Terry Collins, Oscar Tavares, Yoenis Cespedes

19 comments
relief prospect working back from TJ RT : Feels good to toss the rock!!




As you can all see, the comments section of The Morning Report has gone down, probably because the content has gotten a little redundant. The good news is posts by guys like Reese Kaplan, Christopher Soto, Thomas Brennan, and Ernest Dove keep the site humming.
Do me a favor.

Just shoot me a question/topic you want us to cover in the Morning Report, I’ll give you my take, and then I’ll turn it over to the comment makers.

macksmets@gmail.com


It sure would help during this off-season.



Keith Law listed his top 30 draft picks… for insiders only.

Here are his top 15:

            1 LHP Brady Aiken
2 RHP Mike Matuella (Duke)
3 SS Brendan Rodgers (HS)
4 LHP Nathan Kirby (VA)
5 LHP Kolby Allard (HS)
6 RHP Walker Bueller (Vandy)
7 RHP Kyle Funkhouser (Lou)
8 OF Nick Plummer (HS)
9 SS Dansby Swanson (Vandy)
10 OF Alonzo Jones (HS)
11 RHP Mike Nikorak (HS)
12 OF Daz Cameron (HS)
13 SS Richie Martin (Fla)
14 RHP Kyle Cody (Ken)
15 RHP Cody Ponce (Cal Poly)



Mike Vorkunov on Michael Cuddyer -

His production in Colorado was superb but limited. In three years, he hit .307 with an .886 OPS. But he played more than 101 games just once. That came in 2013, when Cuddyer hit .331 with a .919 OPS, 20 home runs and was an All-Star. This season, he actually topped those numbers but only played 49 games due to injury.

There is also the asterisk attached to all standout Rockies hitters. How much benefit did Cuddyer derive from Coors Field? He hit .400 in 20 games at Coors last season and .282 in 29 games away from it. The difference in OPS was drastic (1.255 to .734).

But the split was less drastic in 2013, when he hit .356 with a .997 OPS at Coors and .311 with an .852 OPS away, and in 2012, when Cuddyer hit .268 with an .858 OPS at Coors and .250 with .744 OPS away. 
http://www.nj.com/mets/index.ssf/2014/10/mlb_hot_stove_is_michael_cuddyer_a_fit_for_mets_in_free_agency_an_analysis.html




Andy Martino on Mets SS –

They are most likely to go internal, with Wilmer Flores and Matt Reynolds and possibilities. We can tell you that Ruben Tejada will either be gone or a backup, barring injuries to others. That experiment has run its course.

We can also tell you something else sorta interesting, about a player Sandy Alderson has liked in the past: Oakland’s Jed Lowrie will be a free agent, but is not a target of the Mets right now, according to sources. That’s a decent indication about the desire to play with toys already in the cupboard.

As far as the long-rumored possibility of a trade with the Cubs, for Starlin Castro or another of their bazillion shortstops -- sources on both sides consider a deal unlikely. It’s only a fit in the most simplistic “you have pitching, I have hitting” way.     http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/baseballinsider/yankees-ny-mets-time-change-shortstop-blog-entry-1.1989792


Mack – Jeez, I can’t wait for the Hot Stove season to start so I could stop posting about the same old shit.




Comment From Smooth PumaMoistCooter - what do you make of the Maddon situation? Dodgers?

Dan Szymborski: There are a lot of teams denying interest who should have been very interested… Like the Mets. Terry Collins is awful.

Mack – We haven’t discussed TC in quite a while, probably due Sandy Alderson’s statement that there will be no change in the Mets manager in 2015. This also has probably backed off Reese Kaplan from his bi-montly rant posts about Mr. Collins and the myriad amount of miscues he has made as the manager.

Any opportunity to sign Maddon will be long gone if and when the Mets start off slow and are below .500 at the all-star break. The current team of excellent young pitching could have them almost there, but frankly, I think they are still one more bat and another lights out reliever away from the playoff. The reliever could be Rafael Montero, but the bat is going to have to come from outside the organization.



From Ernie –

            Mack, when does free agency start?

Mack - Here’s how it works.

                                    The World Series ends…

Then five days for teams to negotiate exclusively with the players that are scheduled to be eligible for free agency

                                    Then free agency begins.


Tom –
Hey Mack, is it too early to discuss how St. Louis is going to deal with the loss of Oscar Tavares in their 2015 outfield?

Mack – Well Tom, it probably is, but the reality is the team has to move on at some point and take a close look at what the current system offers them in the outfield:

LF Matt Holliday - $17mil-2016, team option-2018 – Holiday is a fixture in Cardinals outfield.  667-PA, .272-BA, 20-HR, 90-RBI

Alan Craig – traded to the Boston Red Sox near the end of the season

            CF John Jay - $3.25mil – ARB-1/2014 – 468-PA, .303, 3-HR

            Peter Bourjos - $1.2mil/ARB-1 – 294-PA, .231, 4-HR, 24-RBI

            Shane Robinson - $519K-pre/ARB – 66-PA, DL, .150

            Stephen Piscotty – pre-ARB – AAA/PCL: .288, 9-HR, 69-RBI

Randall Grichuk – pre-ARB – MLB: 110-AB, .245 – 

Holiday and Jay seem set and 2015 is the year that Piscotty, the number one prospect, is supposed to step up. Still, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cardinals go to work to add another player at right field.

So sad.




Michael –

           Mack, do you think the Mets will go after Yoenis Cespedes?

                       Mack – Hey Michael.

           Actually I don’t, but not for the reasons most people speculate. It seems he isn’t the most liked person in the clubhouse and there are reports that he makes Jordany Valdespin look like a choir boy.

           Being a bad guy alone would probably prevent the Mets from signing someone like him or Delmon Young. The Wilpon owned Mets have the lock on being the Mets’ prick and like it that way.

           No, Cespedes is going to demand a multi-year contract well past the money the Mets will spend to fill left field in 2015. Sure, the team salary will go up… new arbitration numbers alone may get the team payroll to $100mil… but the plan is in effect for their team salary to increase each year from within the organization through the arbitration process and re-negotiations of contracts.

           2016: Brandon Nimmo

           2017: Michael Conforto

19 comments:

John Zozo said...

I can't say it enough, but andrew miller should be the free agent we target this winter. Whatever it takes to get him we should do!!! 4yrs 28 mill, sign me up. Would love another strong presence in the bullpen, especially a lefty.

Rene Riquelme said...

I agree we should target Andrew Miller above all free agents.I would like to know a list of young ready to promote to the ML propects for rightfield that we could trade for and possible cost like Buxton,Pederson,Soler and the Josh Bells of the League.Also a list of possible leadoff hitters in that list.

Thomas Brennan said...

Hey Zozo!

Still have not gotten my brother Steve to post here, but he 100% agrees with you on Miller.

My guess is: they ain't spending there. maybe they should, though. Look at KC's bullpen, and where it got them.

So you're saying Delmon is a saint compared to Yoenis, Mack? Sign me up for a cruise on the SS Delmon. After responding to Eraff's comparison of Paul Blair and Lagares, and seeing how lousy Blair was once he turned 31, it reinforces that old guys often decline rapidly, so I'd take Delmon over Cuddyer.

Good to see Walters gearing up for 2015 - wish him well.

Anonymous said...

I would not spend that sort of money on a reliever if the BP was barren and certainly not with the internal inventory on the staff and just below in the upper minors. I prefer patience this off season on making any big moves, the FA class is weak and available trade candidates extremely expensive. Not only does this team need one more "step forward" year (playoff run possible) in 2015 for the major league needs, but it also allows other offensive players in the minor gain value. Even if Nimmo does not make it up to the Bigs next year the Mets could see Nimmo in AAA, Conforto and Cecchini in AA and likes of Rosario and Smith in High A at least. In one year (with a little luck) the Mets could have significant offensive pieces moving towards the upper minors and I cant remember when that was the case. The staff will round of over the course of 2015 and finally do away with inning limits or shutdowns, players like d'Arnaud, Lagares and Duda will have a couple of true years under their belts and the Vets will be traded to improve an already top Farm and clear away additional payroll for redeployment.

The best part of this boring time of year is that that Mets really only have 2-3 questions to answer and so many pieces to be excited about next year, so there is not much to talk about and that is a GOOD thing for the Mets!!
Anon Joe F

Christopher Soto said...

@Joe F.

Hole-heartedly agree.....our bullpen is stacked right now and spending $7 million per season on a NON-CLOSER who will make only 70 appearances is just ludicrous.

Save that money and spend it on a guy who will play 155 games for us in the OF.

Rene Riquelme said...

Having great starting pitching and taking them out of the game to handoff to the BP and having them blow it like a Farnsworth did is more ludicrous.We need the pen to hold the game of our great starting staff,that is our strength.Having a strong staff and pen can open more trades with our pitching coming up the ranks.Miller is a proven commodity.

Christopher Soto said...

@Rene

But Rene....we no longer have re-treads like Farnsworth and Valverde in the bullpen.

From mid May through the rest of the season....Mejia/Familia/Edgin/Torres and others combined for a 3.04 ERA which is 6th best in the MLB and 0.26 points BETTER than the Kansas City Royals.

Christopher Soto said...

Adding Parnell and subtracting Carlyle only makes the bullpen better and practically allows us to start next season with a Top 5 MLB bullpen.

There is no need to fix what isn't broken.

Reese Kaplan said...

How about a lefty who posted a 1-1 record last year with a 1.098 WHIP and a 2.63 ERA at age 30?

Or a 25 year old lefty who for his entire minor league career is 20-14 with a 2.66 ERA and a 1.178 WHIP?

Both are currently on the Mets payroll -- Dana Eveland and Dario Alvarez. I wouldn't be alarmed by Alvarez' bad trial in September or in the AFL as he's done this consistently good level of pitching for much longer than his couple of missteps. Eveland to me is more of a gamble as he's not had as much success in the majors or minors and his short trial (positive) may be an outlier. Still, both cost much closer to minimum wage and give you a second lefty after Edgin. (And don't forget Leatherocket).

John Zozo said...

Like rene said if we signed Miller we could deal more players from the bullpen like a Mejia to get us our stud shortstop/ right fielder. Our bullpen also needs a stud lefty to really turn the corner and by doing so probably will make everyone else that much better. Also not to mention a little less wear and tear for all the BP.
We also have a numbers problem on our 40 man coming on very soon, so we need to make a 3for 1 type trade to free up some more spots. With all this young pitching coming up and no where to put them, that's where we should trade from. Teams want proven commodities so if you throw a Mejia as part of a trade for a Cubs shortstop they might come around to dealing one of them. Maybe a Mejia, Gee and Montero gets ups Starlin Castro? Or mejia and fee for Addison Russel?

John Zozo said...

Reese how much better would Alvarez and edgin be if they didn't have to be the main lefty? Miller has proven it and especially in big game situations and I believe that is what's needed to lead this young but talented bullpen. Best of all it only costs $$$, I would prefer him over a Rios or Cuddyer type.

Christopher Soto said...

@Zozo

A bullpen arm is not going to get you a "stud" SS or OF during the off-season with so many FA and prospect arms available going into 2015. Relievers only carry trade value at the July deadline.

That said, Juerys Familia may be the only one in that bullpen right now with trade value and there's no way in hell that I would trade him.

@Reese

I actually think Dario's numbers are more unsustainable than Eveland's. Have to remember that ALvarez has a total of 12 IP above the Savannah level. He needs far more time in the minor leagues.

As for Eveland....despite his up and down career, Eveland has always been able to get K's against lefties. In his career he has struck out 18.3% of left handed batters and last season he K'd 28.8% of them.

In addition his .241 Avg against lefties, while not superb, is pretty good and is even inflated a bit thanks to a .351 BABIP.

He has some value and I would definitely tender him a $1.0m arbitration contract

Thomas Brennan said...

Hey guys. Dario Alvarez had a phenomenal minor league season. Acknowledging that, can any of you guys succinctly summarize what sort of stuff he has (e.g, does he throw 94-97, etc.).

Then we can factor in his inexperience and better categorize him.

Christopher Soto said...

@Tom

In the few games that we saw Alvarez I picked up the following data.

Alvarez only possesses 2 pitches.

Cutter:
- 90-92 mph, Max 93mph
- Uses 48% of the time
- Has 3 inch horizontal movement away from lefties


Slider:
- 79-81 mph, Max 83mph
- Uses 52% of the time
- Has 8 inch horizontal movement away from lefties

Christopher Soto said...

Its worth noting his usages splits too.

Vs. Left Handed Hitters
Cutter Usage: 29.4%
Slider Usage: 70.6%

Vs. Right Handed Hitters
Cutter Usage: 71.5%
Slider Usage: 28.5%

Mack Ade said...

Thomas -

Good afternoon.

Don't get me wring... I really don't care how big of a pain in the ass you are in the clubhouse if you produce on the field.

Would sign either Young or Cespedes if I could for one year, but the Mets won't.

Thomas Brennan said...

@ Chris - Great stuff on Dario.

Mack, we'll sign Julio Franco - I hear he is available

Bill Metsiac said...

Mack--We don't need to sign Cespedes for a year or two or more. He's already SIGNED through 2015. If we trade for him he's ours for next year, and his performance and behavior will determine whether we look to re-sign him or let him walk.

That said, as a one-year filler to hold the fort until Nimmo and Conforto arrives, there are others I'd go for-- Cuddyer, Rios, Gomes and Byrd the prime ones. And only Byrd would require trading talent.

Mack Ade said...

Metsiac -

You're right - my bad.

In that case, Boston would gladly trade him for the right pitcher/package...

Montero + Plawecki might get it done but that's an awful lot for a one-year outfielder who doesn't fit in

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