On
November 23, 2013, the Mets signed free agent OF Chris Young Jr. to a one-year, $7.25mil
contract. The move caught Mets fans off guard because they weren’t used to
General Manager Sandy
Alderson coming
out of the box and moving this fast during the ‘Hot Stove season’.
How
much will the failure of this move effect the timing of when Alderson will pull
the trigger this year? What if a guy like Alex
Rios is willing to sign
early a one-year deal for, say, Young-money… do you take the whole ‘find a
corner outfielder’ target off the table and move on to the issue at shortstop?
You
have to assume that Alderson is already in touch with teams that have players
he has targeted for a possible trade. I assume that the Cubs, Diamondbacks, and
Red Sox are programmed into Alderson’s speed dial, but there are 30 teams in
the league and an agreement between one team and one agent doesn’t always come
easy.
My
guess is Alderson will handle the Hot Stove season the same way he and most
baseball General Managers handle the draft…
do your homework, put your target names up on your board, and draft the
best player available when it’s your turn to pick.
If
a ‘target name’ crosses your desk at right price… sign em’.
Pen Prospect Focus –
Paul Sewald
Seward
was drafted in the 10th round of the 2012 draft out of San Diego
University. He pitched four seasons in college and received a whopping $1,000
bonus from the Mets for signing (I would have loved to be in that room when the
Mets sold him that bill of goods).
He
actually was a starter in his senior year (15-G, 14-ST, 8-4, 3.09), but the
Mets knew exactly what they wanted from Seward… 16 more appearances that same
year, all in relief, for Brooklyn (1.88).
Sewald’s
professional numbers are unmatched. He’s been in the Mets organization for four
seasons, has pitched in 94 games, has struck out 171 batters (no big fastball
here, just intelligent mixing of four pitchers that include a high-80s FB) and
has an ERA/WHIP of 1.85/1.01.
He
finished 2014 with a cup of coffee in Binghamton, which is exactly where he
will start 2015… I mean, relieve 2015… and he will pitch next year as a 25-year
old. Still, this is the best $1,000 investment this team has ever made.
Right now, I have him as the number two relief prospect behind Akeel Morris.
JP
Schwartz likes
to put together a post every year with his top 20 prospect for each team in
baseball (http://topprospectalert.com/2014/10/18/2015-mlb-organizational-top-20-prospect-rankings/). Every team is listed here if
you want to visit the site.
His
Mets list is interesting:
1: Noah Syndergaard RHP, 2: Michael
Conforto OF, 3: Kevin Plawecki C, 4: Dilson Herrera 2B, 5: Steven
Matz LHP, 6: Rafael Montero RHP, 7: Marcos Molina RHP, 8: Brandon
Nimmo OF, 9: Dominic Smith 1B, 10: Amed Rosario SS, 11: Gavin
Cecchini SS, 12: Matt Reynolds SS/2B, 13:
Wuilmer Becerra OF, 14: Gabriel Ynoa RHP, 15: Jhoan Urena 3B, 16: Casey
Meisner RHP, 17: John
Gant RHP, 18: Matt Bowman RHP, 19: Blake
Taylor LHP, 20: Michael Fulmer RHP
Most
of the usual subjects were ranked here and I first have to say that you will
never find two people that agree on exactly the ranking of the top 20 Mets in
the system. This is all subjective. Sort of like the Mets middle infield
defense.
People
that rank prospects usually go down one of two roads. Some have the older guys
who have worked their way through the system and are knocking on the door
ranked higher… others do this on ceiling and projected tools.
Me?
Well, Cecchini, Bowman, and Taylor would not be on my top 20 and I definitely
would have Robert
Whalen, Paul Sewald, and Vincente Lupo. But see? That’s my opinion,
which is always different when we do things like this.
Mack
– one of my objectives here in The Morning Report is to keep you all abreast to
what’s being written about the shortstops and corner outfielders that could be
available to the Mets this off season. Russell is one of them, though the Cubs
are playing him at second base in the AWL right now.
(Keith
Law reminds us that the main reason he's playing 2B in the AWL is because he
can't play SS every day there)
We
all know the fact that the Cubs have Starlin
Castro, Arismendy Alcantara, Javier Baez, and Russell all in the
pipeline here, and they need pitching desperately.
One
more thing...
Chicago
is very happy with Castro on short and they have big plans for a guy named
Bryant at third... every effort is being done to convert Baez into a second
baseman which makes the trade for Russell even more puzzling. This must have
been done figuring he can be turned into immediate pitching help.
I
always talk about depth in the organization and how important it is when you
are trying to turn around a team that isn’t going in the right direction.
Take
the Atlanta Braves… they have a bunch of long term contracts bogging them down,
only really three decent starters returning next spring, and a very
questionable outfield situation. Add to this the cost of building a new stadium
and we all know those problems, don’t we?
Well,
the one problem they don’t have is in the infield.
First
base and shortstop are a lock with Freddie
Freeman and
Andrelton Simmons and, while most Braves fans are
happy with Chris
Johnson at
third base and Tommy
La Stella
at second, rest assured they are backed up at the prospect level with 23-year
old Kyle Kubitza (2014: AA-Ball - 440-AB,
.295/.402/.470/873, 8-HR, 55-RBI and 20-year old Jose Peraza (2014: AA-Ball – 185-AB,
.335/.363/.422/784).
See
this is talent on talent. Major League producers sitting on high ceiling
projected replacements. This is what a team strives to accomplish within its
system.
The
comments that OF Yoenis
Cespedes is
available on the market were not made by the team. They came from a reporter
who supposedly was fed this information by a Red Sox source. He also said that
Cespedes doesn’t care much about improving his defensive game which also isn’t
going to help the team and him eat at the same dinner table anymore.
Look,
the trade for Cespedes was a move to help Boston get to the 2014 playoffs. It
didn’t work, nor (IMO) would giving this guy a long term contract; however, I’d
love him in the Mets left field for 2015. It wouldn’t kill the Mets to add his
2014 results (22-HRs/100-RBIs) to the Mets lineup.
Mookie
Betts and Rusney Castillo are the future of the Boston
outfield.
And
then, even without Cespedes, you still have Shane
Victorino, Allen Craig, Daniel Nava, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Bryce Brentz.
The
2015 Mets need a bat like this in their lineup.
11 comments:
Morning, Mack
I still have Leathersich as #2 relief prospect behind Akeel, and my gut is Hansel Robles is following close to the path charted by Jeurys Familia (spotty minor league starter turned relief beast)n so he is my #3. Then Paul Sewald, then Brad Wieck. Nice group to have. The above list ought to also include Dario Alvarez, but since he made his ML debut, I will leave him off the list for now as a graduate.
I am really anxious to see if Sandy mostly stands pat or gets good offers for the Russells and Cespedes of the world. This should be the most intriguing winter for the Mets in a long, long time.
As a long time follower of the Mets Farm, I must say that they have not had this sort of depth before, even if it may lack the super duper stars; quality inventory is the key, since putting all chips on one or two players can be risky. Hard to leave out Justin Upton and Jason Heyward from the decent starter list for the Bravos. Not sure what to think about the chances for Cespedes, but the power, the position and short term commitment definitely fit what I think Sandy is planning on doing in the OF and since he really cannot expect big returns for Niese and Gee, there may be a fit. As far as SS, I think Sandy may surprise and find one from somewhere else than CHI or AZ. The Indians, Tigers, Rangers and maybe even the Sox have an extra prospect that may not be as sexy as Russell, but after seeing Baez struggle when he came up, Sandy may not be as wedded to a superstar prospect as many think. I saw the post on the Rangers adding $20M in payroll yesterday; not sure where that came from, but there were rumors mid season that MLB had approached Texas about their crazy non-compliance with their debt service ratio, so it is really surprising that they would be talking about adding payroll, when MLB would like them to shave it down because they have already gone through one bankruptcy and cannot file again for several years. They really have taken on some dog contracts: Choo, Fielder, Andrus, etc.
Anon Joe F
Hey Joe F
I agree on you minor league assessment. Also, Sin Shoo Choo had an awful season overall and demonstrates the extreme danger of long term contracts to aging guys, not that he is old yet, but last year might be the first year of real decline (as well as the first year of a 7 year, $130MM contract). That contract is a whole kennel of dogs barking.
Free agent guys over 30? Two years tops, or see you later, as far as I am concerned.
If Dekker does play as much in 2015, I'd hope for similar or better production offensively, with better defense and speed results (Choo: 3 of 7 steals). At a very, very small fraction of the cost.
Assuming you can't get Mookie Betts, the outfielder I want from Boston is Allen Craig. He's coming off a lost year due to injury and as such it's a buy-low situation where you might land him for relatively little and have him around longer than you would Cespedes. For his 22/100 season Craig is year removed from 97 RBIs and 2 years from 92 when he also hit 22 HRs. And he hit over .300 both of those years, too...I think of him as a defensively challenged Keith Hernandez -- the type of consistent bat needed in the 3 position in the batting order. Also he's right handed which helps balance out the Granderson/Duda lefty power with David Wright and Travis d'Arnaud.
There has to be a Mets pitcher for a Boston outfielder deal out there somewhere
I think Gee could land you Craig straight up. Boston will be searching for an ace this offseason but I think adding Gee to a rotation that will have some top prospects fighting for rotation spots would help balance their rotation.
I'd make that trade in a second from a Met's perspective.
Reese and Kevin, what was Allan Craig's reason(s) for his precipitous drop off last year? How confident it is something he'd rebound from?
Craig finished seventh in the National League batting race in 2012 with a .307 average, was eighth with a .315 average in 2013 and hit a remarkable .454 with runners in scoring position for a Cardinals team that went to the World Series in '13.
I know he had a foot injury last postseason that carried into the offseason. He's owed $25.5M over the next 3 years with a team option for 2018. He's 30 years old.
This seems like the ultimate buy-low guy to me. He's pretty much owed Chris Young money over the next 3 years.
@Tom Brennan
Allen Craig pretty much nursed a foot/ankle injury throughout the entire 2014 campaign. It sapped all his power and his ability to lift the baseball. His Line Drive rate plummeted from 27% to 21%, his FB% dropped from 28% to 25%, and it all shifted over to his GB numbers which jumped from 45% to 54%.
Reduced LD% and FB% + Increased GB% = less home runs thus less protection against the all mighty BABIP.
Craig suffered huge BABIP deflation. In his first 1,420 Plate Appearances between 2010 - 2013, Craig's career BABIP was an astounding .349 but in 2014 his BABIP dropped to .266. You couple that with a K rate that jumped from 17.9% to 22.4% and it does major damage to your batting average.
Kevin is correct that Craig is a strong bounceback candidate but before anything happens, Doctors need to verify that his foot is 100% healthy.
For what it's worth, at his new lower .329 career BABIP....
STEAMER Projections has him producing the below stat line for 2015:
.277 AVG
.774 OPS
17 HR
75 RBI
1.7 WAR
He had a Lisfranc injury:
"Lisfranc Injury Recovery Time?
Stable Lisfranc injuries that do not require surgery may cause an athlete to miss 2 months or more of their season. However, most athletes are able to successfully return at some point.
- See more at: http://www.sportsmd.com/SportsMD_Articles/id/283/n/matt_schaub__what_is_lisfranc_injury_and_how_long_to_recover.aspx#sthash.kp1PHFC6.dpuf"
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