The Morning Report – October 30 – Juan Lagares vs. Roberto Clemente, Lucas Duda, Pre-ARB

One thing before you go to bed tonight. If you are half  my age of 68, you make your friends and family members just witnesses the greatest single pitching performance in World Series games since the dead ball era of Walter Johnson.

You will never see this again.

Madison Baumgarner has proven to be the pitcher this game has ever seen produced

I only hoped you wanted every pitch of every ball he threw in this series this season.

It will never be back.

Thomas Brennan is taking some serious shit over in the comments section of one of his posts where he compared Juan Lagares to a ‘young Roberto Clemente.. Some of our more aggressive regulars and the anonymous crew have shot back at Tom pretty hard, so I thought I’m compare these two guys at the same stages of their careers to see if could walk away with some concrete statements to hit over the head of some of these guys.

So Thomas, Eriff, and Anon… get your pith helmuts on.

Juan Lagares
Roberto Clemente
MLB yrs
2 (1955-56)

I’m probably doing something wrong here but the two things that seem to counter each of these guys first two year in the pros is Lagares’ WAR production vs. Clemente much lower K/AB ratio.

Still, based on these figures, it would be impossible to tell who was going to be the legend yet.

BT asked –

Hi Mack, I saw that Duda might go to Japan this offseason.  I was kind of hoping he would go to fitness camp again.  With some of these players, you know they are exercising probably too much, but others certainly do not exercise enough or even take the time to learn their bodies and how to take care of themselves.  Is there any word on the team sending players to fitness camp again this winter?  Which players? Thanks, BT

Mack- Yes, there has been some speculation about Duda going there but there hasn’t been any confirmation by him or the Mets let. I would tend to think that he would be the kind of player that could put on a few excess pounds in the off-season, so maybe playing baseball would be a good thing.
There’s also been no official word on any attendance in any off-season fitness camps.

Last year, the World Health Organization (WHO) released a report on driving fatalities around the world in which the Dominican ranked as the deadliest country in the world for motor-vehicle related deaths. A stunning 41.7 deaths per year per 100,000 people occur in the Dominican. When the Washington Post stretched that ratio out over a 70-year span, it calculated than 1 in 480 people will die because of a motor vehicle-related accident in that lifetime. And the real numbers may be worse. The WHO reported that the Dominican doesn't have an adequate death registration system, meaning many more vehicle-related deaths have likely not been reported.
Venezuela—another baseball talent producer—was the third deadliest country with 37.2 fatalities per 100,000 people per year. The world average was 18 deaths per 100,000 people per year. - https://sports.vice.com/article/oscar-taveras-and-the-perils-facing-latin-american-baseball-players

Mack – Read this article. It’s extremely timely based on the recent tragedy to Oscar Tavares.

Chris ‏@tpgMets  - Alvarez, Brown, Germen, Goeddel, Puello, Rice, Satin, Tovar, Walters my guesses at most vulnerable pre-arbs. Carlyle, Eveland, Parnell, Tejada, Young most vulnerable for NT.

                       Mack – A couple of thoughts…

I go into the Rule 5 (or is it Rule V?) process every year thinking the team is going to lose all sorts of talent and it never does. There are very few players lost in this process and I don’t see the Mets losing anyone of any future importance.

I can’t see Bobby Parnell being non-tendered. I just can’t see it, especially since the complete formation of the 2015 rotation isn’t done yet. The Mets need him back.

I can’t say the same about Ruben Tejada and think his future is tied to a decision on Wilmer Flores and the growth of Matt Reynolds. Cost wise, Reynolds looks like an alternative as a backup middle infielder for the Mets, though I don’t know how he would hold up at second base.

And so we are here…

The last game of the 2014 season has been played and we're five days before the beginning of the Hot Stove season. What have we learned and what have we been reminded of?

Well, I for one remember what I first heard in the first part of the Ken Burns documentary about this fine game… that this is the only sport where the ball is controlled by the defense. God, I could write a 1,000 word post just on this one line.

What I learned here is that any two teams that can make the playoffs through the Wild Card system can produce one of, or simply the most, exciting World Series in my lifetime.

Everybody in my life knows how dedicated I am to baseball and most think I’m nuts to be so drawn to such a ‘slow, boring game’. They just can’t see the beauty here that I do.

And lastly, I walk away from this series knowing that the New York Mets are a twist here and a tightening there from being either one of these teams. They have the young talented pitching that can get them to the one-game portion of this journey and then a healthy David Wright, a streaky Curtis Granderson, and a more improved with age Lucas Duda and Travis d’Arnaud could take them to the same Game 7 we all just enjoyed.

It’s that close folks. 

It’s that close.


Thomas Brennan said...

Taking pernicious poop, am I, on Clemente vs. Lagares? That's cool!

Clemente hit the bigs before Lagares age-wise, but my whole point was there was a "before" and "after" Clemente, and Lagares compares quite favorably to the "before" version.

The "before" version was in 1955-59. Clemente's #'s were far from spectacular offensively. In those 5 seasons, he averaged 512 plate appearances, just 57 runs scored, 47 RBIs, 5 homers, an on base % of around .300, a slugging % under .400 (so far, so mediocre), and averaged .282. That covered the first 2,559 plate appearances of his career. Nice but nothing special. Let's hope Lagares can do at least that, frankly.

The "after" Clemente was clearly great. 7500 more plate appearances, .331, about .375 on base, slugging % slightly over .500. And a bunch of those years were in cavernous Forbes Field, which had to hurt the power #'s.

If Lagares ever comes close to the "after" version, I think we'll all be stunned. That was NOT my comparison. My comparison is Juan vs. the early (“before”) Clemente.

I still think, after seeing Lagares for 2 years, that he is the better defender than Clemente, which is the highest possible praise, because Roberto in the field, heck, was ROBERTO.

Thomas Brennan said...

My brother Steve was reminding me back in Reyes' final year with the Mets that Mets were offered Bumgarner for Reyes. Obviously, if his recollection is true, they turned it down.

Oh well, how good is Bumgarner anyway? Will he ever do anything to impress anyone? Well, how about the 2014 post-season? I guess he impressed at least 1 or 2 people. Spectacular.

Christopher Soto said...


You are correct, Madison Bumgarner was a "piece" of a potential 2011 trade for Reyes.

At the time though, I do believe that Bumgarner only had 25 career starts under his belt. There were concerns about his low K rate in the minors as well as his inefficiencies on the mound and his "sling-shot" delivery was seen as an injury risk.

If I'm not mistaken.....at the time, I think, Alderson was requesting Bumgarner AND Brandon Belt for Reyes.

Thomas Brennan said...

If that were the case, then Sandy got too greedy - Bumgarner in 2010 and 2011 with SFG had an ERA of about 3.13 in 315 innings, with 287 Ks. So the K rate was very strong, and he was only 21 in 2011. Just looking at that, and as good as Reyes was, not jumping on a straight up MG for JR deal was enough, considering Jose was about to walk.

Mack Ade said...

Nobody could have predicted what Bumgarner has accomplished... at 25 years old

Christopher Soto said...


A ton of those K's came in the second half of the season. His K rate in the minors and his 1st 25 starts was in the 6.5 per 9 innings range.

He really turned it on in July racking up 10.5+ per 9 IP each month for the remainder of the year.

Anonymous said...

Morning MACK:
This is what I have learned this season/post season.
The Mets are very close to being a better team than San Fran has been the past 5 years!
The problem I see is the manager?
But watching the playoff teams,has me thinking they shouldn't have moved the OF walls in? Instead build a team around the to be great pitching and Defense. The timely hitting will come,i hope?
But going forward seeing what ive scene the METS better start MDD in RF! I do like Flores potential with the bat,but at SS I want a shutdown player? I want a Crawford! How about that double play lastnight? Can MURPHY make that play at 2nd?
Anyhow I really hope Harvey's start to the season is delayed till May so he is the last one standing in 2015.
Take care Mack,look forward to your response


Reese Kaplan said...

The real wildcard for the 2015 season is Wilmer Flores. He's not been given a full season's chance before but whenever he has he's responded. The trick is to keep Captain Hook from benching him the first time he goes 0-4.

Lew Rhodes said...

Bumgarner just WOW - but, I still by the injury risk with him - his delivery to me is going to lead to shoulder problems that will hamper his long term career - but Geez, he could end up another Koufax

Lew Rhodes said...

I am hoping Terry gets some stern instructions on Wilmer

I am pretty sure Reynolds' performance in Arizona has spelled the end of Tejada - I was skeptical of Reynolds all season based on his past, but his performance this fall has made me a believer - his is hitting the best prospects in all of baseball and hitting them well.

Mack Ade said...

Steve -

I will answer your question via a future Morning Report.

Try and send long questions to my email address:

macksmets@gmail com


eraff said...


I am filing this comment UNDER PROTEST---please note that I am eraff, not eriff.


so...1)you cannot compare a 20 year old debut to a 24 year old debut....2)Clemente Had over 1000 hits at 25, Lagares present age, and....C) I was just pointing out the "public Dunkenness" that was on display by Tom!!!!

Hand in hand with the Lagares/Clemented Comparo, To alo projected denDecker at an .800 OPS....and some other happy go luckly stuff as well.

Lite chiding, really...I'm a MAJOR Lego Fan!!!

Brian Joura said...

In MLB "Rules" are designated with numbers, while "Articles" are designated with Roman Numerals. That’s why it is the Rule 5 Draft, not the Rule V Draft.

Thomas Brennan said...

cool, Eriff, err, I mean Eraff!

All in fun, I can take a good chiding!

Dekker may flop, but I think to the contrary - the best of Matt is yet to come

Mack Ade said...

Eraff -

you should become a writer here...

eraff said...

I like DD too!...and guess what?...I like Newee as well!

LH outfielders with some pop, speed, and capable of carrying a CF'ers glove tend to hang around and scratch out careers---maybe more than just #4 or 5 OF'ers, eventually. These guys will get a chance (somewhere) to display or fail.

Thomas Brennan said...

I'd like to see Kirk head back to Vegas with one mission: cut down the Ks. It is his Achilles heel. Dekker figured it out, Kirk would be a solid OF, perhaps even starting caliber, if he did that.

2/3 of his plate appearances in 2014 were in Vegas and he still struck out 95 times in 359 at bats. He had a pretty decent year, but with Ks like that, risky as to whether it is sustainable.

Mack Ade said...

Thomas -

With all due respect to all these guys you (Kirk) and I (dD) want to go back to AAA for a year and iron out their problems... they've simply run out of time

Thomas Brennan said...

Can't argue there, Mack.

Kirk has had lots of time, so if no more is extended, that's it.

Made strides in 2014, but not enough for me to say I'd feel I could rely on him in 2015, except maybe as a 5th OF

Mack Ade said...

Frankly, I'd rather see the Mets to start operating like some of the other teams and press their top prospects.

Nimmo is having a great winter. Invite him to Big Boy came in the spring and, if he rakes there, bring him up and let him start in left.

What's the downside?

He hits .230 like the rest of them?

Let's get on to the future.

Thomas Brennan said...

Not so sure Nimmo cracks .200 if he was out there in April. You know, Mack, that I want guys to move up fast. I'd like to see Akeel Morris on the Mets before season's end, a jump of 4 levels from Savannah. But I think Dekker will be much better next year. Bring Nimmo up in June if he's raking.

Of course, should Nimmo hit .350 this spring, I'll be happy to jump on board.

eraff said...

But Mack...I'm ALREADY a Writer here!!!

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