6/5/15

Mack’s Morning Report – 6-5-15 – Prospect Update, Bullpen Update, Trade Candidates

19 comments

Good morning.

One evaluator said of Steven Matz at Vegas: "It's like taking a big league guy and throwing him against a rookie ball team."

I was thinking the other morning about just how many real, producing prospects we have left in the system and which ones will probably experience some form of promotion in 2015. Some, as in the case of Jayce Boyd, already have, but here’s a working list of players you should expect ending the 2015 season in a different place than they started:

2B Dilson Herrera – AAA-Las Vegas: .370 – ETA: currently 7day-DL 2015
2B LJ Mazzilli -  A+ St. Lucie debut this week - will finish at AA-Binghamton
LHSP Steven Matz – AAA-Las Vegas: 6-2 1.99 1.04 – ETA MLB post ASG 2015
LF Jayce Boyd A+ St. Lucie - .304 – transferred to AA-Binghamton May 2015
SS Gavin Cecchini – AA-B/Mets: .315 – proj. transfer to AAA post 2015 ASG
RHRP Paul Sewald – AA-Binghamton – 18-G, 1.52, 0.89 – post ASG AAA 2015
LF Michael Conforto A+ St. Lucie – .283 – transferred to AA-Bing May 2015
SS Amed Rosario – A+ St. L - .281- proj. transfer to AA-B/Mets post 2015 ASG
RHSP Robert Gsellman A+ St. L – 6-0, 1.76 –transferred to AA-Bing May 2015
RHSP Rob Whalen A+ St. L– 2-3 2.72  proj transfer to AA-Bing post ASG 2015
RHRP Akeel Morris A+ St.L- 17-G, 1.50- proj trans to AA-Bing post ASG 2015
SS Luis Guillorme – A/Savannah - .317 – proj transfer to A+ post ASG 2015
LHSP Brad Wieck – A/Sav – 58K/43.2-IP – proj transfer to A+ post ASG 2015
RHSP Casey Meisner – A/Sav – 2.02/1.04 – proj transfer to A+ post ASG 2015
LHRP David Roseboom – A/Sav – 1.57/0.96 – proj transfer to A+ post ASG 2015

My guess is Herrera and Matz will both finish the season in New York, and I’m not just talking about September when rosters are increased.  I frankly don’t expect much from David Wright this season. The Mets need to strongly consider their insurance options.

Right now, and boy, I hope I’m conservatively wrong, I see three potential ‘stars’ on this list… Herrera, Matz, and Michael Conforto. I see others that could make a splash or become a back-end starter (if there were any room for one of them in the next five years), but there’s only so many people that can pitch in a rotation or play shortstop.

The obvious ‘wild card’ here is Conforto. It’s looking like a great draft pick (more every day) though I’m still not sure of him home run potential at the major league level. He started out well this season in A+ ball, but the long ball did tail off in the month of May. My hopes is he will continue to bulk up in this off season and come into camp ready to air it out in spring training.

Can he make the 2016 Mets 25-man? I don’t think so because I don’t see a full time outfield job open yet and you don’t want a guy this talents sitting on the bench. No, send him to Vegas where he can tee off and run up his offensive stats.

ESPN 


It amazes me how bad a team can look like its playing and yet still play themselves back into contention for first place.

I have particularly been following the bullpen these past few weeks and I have to tell you, my stomach starts to churn every time a starter gives the ball over to anyone other than Jeurys Familia.

Oh, there’s Jack Leathersich, who has a 0.00-ERA, but he pitches one batter per game so how can you get excited about that?
Erik Goeddel and Alex Torres have been a pleasant surprise but both have put up a couple of clunkers recently.

No, I hate to say it, the Mets bullpen just doesn’t have the second guy that I can take a deep breath, sit back, and mutter to myself that everything is going to be alright.
I say that when Familia pitches, but I can’t with any of these guys, and waiting for Vic Black or Bobby Parnell to come back seems like eternity.

I can’t believe I’m going to say this, but I can’t wait for Jenrry Mejia to get back. (I still wish on Montero in the 7th…) Mejia in the 8th, Familia in the 9th… yeah, deep breath… sit back…

ESPN 

As best as I can predict, Oakland, Philadelphia, and Milwaukee will be the first three teams to begin to shed payroll this season.

Cincinnati, Miami, Boston, and Toronto could quickly follow.

The prime candidates are always the guys that are playing in their last contracted year, or the one with one more season under ink.

There’s been a tremendous amount of speculation about the A’s possibly moving 2B Ben Zobrist, but what about someone like OF Josh Reddick? The 28-year old ex-17th round draft pick is currently being paid $4.1mil in his ARB-2 year. He’s hitting .300+ and you can count on a raise to the $7-8mil range in 2016. What better time to move him is a deal to a team with young pitcher or two under team control?

We all know the obvious players on the Phillies that have been discussed, but do you think that the Mets might be interested in a deal that would secure 27-year old Ben Revere for their outfield bench? Revere is currently being paid $4.1mil in his second year of arbitration and various Philly sources said that he could be on the move.

And forget Ryan Braun. I want my old centerfielder back! Wouldn’t be great to have Carlos Gomez playing next to Juan Lagares? The 29-year old Gomez is contracted through the 2016 season for $9mil. Like Reddick, two minimal salary guys under control by the team could be the trick here.

As for the Reds, they have been throwing around the name of Johnny Cuerto, but my choice would be either Jay Bruce or, if David Wright’s career did project to be over and the Mets were going to go down the insurance road, Todd Frazier. Bruce’s 2016 deal ($12.542mil followed by FA-2017) is considered cheap in today’s market, and Frazier is inked for $8.25mil (ARB-2). The Mets could easily put together 2-3 team controlled prospects plus one of their young pitchers for either of these studs.

Regarding the Marlins, you’re never going to get Giancarlo Stanton away from these guys, but my guess is Christian Yelich (7-yr, 49.57mil – 2015-2022) would become available, especially if this team keeps losing an Yelich keeps under-producing.

As for the Red Sox, frankly, no one lines up here for a possible deal with the Mets.
And lastly, the Blue Jays have only two players under contract past this season, Russell Martin and Jose Reyes.

I’m sure there other deals, with other players, that could be done. I’m just throwing out a few names here to digest.

19 comments:

Bob Sugar said...

Love the picture up top Mack. What is that pool hall inside with a massage parlor in the back?

Thomas Brennan said...

I'd add Nimmo and Becerra, and even Jeff McNeil (-340+) as promotion candidates with future big league potential. All 3 could be trade chips.

You're hurting Leathersich's feelings, Mack. He's had a few longer outings :)

I'm nicknaming him Captain Zero. After all, his ERA in 10 outings is zero point zero zero. And in his last 7 spring games and 12 AAA games, he allowed but a single homer and 2 runs. I for one have to give Jack tons of credit.

Good array of possible trade pieces presented. Let's hope we pull a few triggers, and keep Matz and Thor in the process.

Bob Sugar said...

Keep Thor and Matz in the process is right. Matz certainly isn't going anywhere with the way Niese is pitching. You know what though. Sandy is gun shy and very conservative. He doesn't take many chances and only deals when he is in a position of strength. I understand that but sometimes you got to take chances to make your move

Ernest Dove said...

I also look forward to seeing Mejia back in the fold.
Yeah yeah yeah PED shame shame shame. Colon sure the hell is beloved around New York. And Muno has been promoted a couple times and given a chance. Mets need their BEST 25 men on the roster for the stretch run.

Bob Sugar said...

You have Cecchini up to AAA on this list which make sense but isn't Reynolds there at SS?
I'm so fired up today that I have posted three times already. I got to get out of the house

ZachBoyer said...

Does anyone think it'd be possible to get Frazier w/o trading Noah or Matz? Is that naive?

Thomas Brennan said...

Zach, if Frazier means losing Matz or Thor, not worth it to me. Both pitchers will be top line starters, in my opinion. Come up with another solution.

Sad to see Murphy hurt. I do not recap guys with quad issues not going on DL. Maybe Reynolds joins team tonight? If he does, doubt he'll hit like Murph, a bat We can I'll afford to lose for any length of time. A week later, and it'd likely have been Herrera called up.

Terry has to work Mayberry in...if that means Cuddyer to 3rd temporarily so be it.

Thomas Brennan said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
ZachBoyer said...

That's what I'm saying. Not worth it for me either. I'm asking if it's possible to get Frazier without trading either of them?

Reese Kaplan said...

I'd be looking long and hard at the less expensive Alex Guerrero from the Dodgers. He's from the Cuban leagues where he hit for 20+ HR power yet he's already got 10 HRs this year.

Mack Ade said...

Zach -

I wonder sometimes if Sandy is able to get ANYONE without trading Thor or Matz

Mack Ade said...

Bob -

Bring a lot of quarters if you go into that building

Mack Ade said...

Ernest -

My guess is Parnell may be a pitcher of the past and Black could easily be shut down for the season.

Mejia is going to be a welcomed return come July.

ZachBoyer said...

Yes, I know!

I don't know why you can't offer Rosario, Montero, and either Nimmo/Conforto and at least just start there? That's 3 top-100 prospects.

The Reds have 2 top-100 prospects TOTAL.

Thomas Brennan said...

Zach, good thinking, but for me, Conforto is off limits.

ZachBoyer said...

Thank you. And I like Conforto too, but I'd do that easily right now.

Think about how good Duda's been and then look at the fact that Frazier has 7 more HRs. That's playoffs?!

Especially when you factor in you still have Nimmo as a good corner OF prospect going forward.

Bob Sugar said...

And cash for the ladies in the back

Brian Joura said...

I think Ben Revere makes sense for the team and a Gee-Revere swap works for both teams. Phils desperately need pitching and unless you're a Ceciliani fan, the Mets need someone capable of playing CF should Lagares wind up on the DL at some point.

It's a lot of money for a backup OF, though.

Mack Ade said...

Brian -

That's funny... I was on a MetsMusings podcast for their 200th episode last night and the guests were me and a Philly blogger... we traded Revere for Niese :)

BTW... that was a pretty insensitive pice on Wright your guy wrote this morning, no?

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