Mike Freire - An Interesting Comparison

An Interesting  Comparison

I would like to preface this article by stating that statistics don't always tell a complete story, especially when you begin to extrapolate or project performance.   However, play along with me for just a few minutes and I think you will find the following comparison to be interesting, to say the least.

Player A (first "full season" statistics)

650 PA (age 22 season)

10 HR - 78 RBI - 14 SB

.800 OPS - 3.3 WAR

.969 Fielding Percentage - 22 Errors (negative 0.2 WAR)

Player B (first "full season" statistics)

650 PA (extrapolated from 228 AB - age 23 season)

28 HR - 88 RBI - 0 SB

.709 OPS - 1.5 WAR

.960 Fielding Percentage - 28 Errors (negative 0.4 WAR)

Upon first blush, they would seem to be pretty even statistically.  Player A has a healthier OPS and WAR, buoyed by a better Batting Average, On Base Percentage and Steals.   However, Player B is certainly a better power threat and both player's defensive statistics are pretty close, too.

Depending the mystery a bit more, they both play shortstop and both players are approximately 6-3 and 200 pounds.  

Clearly, I would take Player A if I had to pick (as would all of you).  By this point you may be onto what I am hinting at........Player A is Derek Jeter (first full year in 1996) and Player B is Wilmer Flores (first full year as the full time short stop in 2015).

Now, before anyone starts to freak out, I am NOT suggesting that Wilmer is the next Derek Jeter! 

However, before Jeter established himself as a future Hall of Fame player, his early statistics raised some questions.....especially defensively.  There was talk of moving him off of short stop due to his size and his penchant for making errors (sounds familiar).  Granted, he was special with the bat right away, so his defensive issues were minimized.   But, he was playing on championship caliber teams right from the "get go" so there was pressure to perform and it was in the same media spotlight that Wilmer now occupies.  

As we all know, the Yankees were patient with Derek and his glove work improved to the point where he was "league average" and it didn't cost the team that much, if at all (being one of the smartest players to ever play didn't hurt, as his defense was helped by proper positioning and anticipation).   The Yankees were quite successful during his career, proving that a player can overcome a perceived lack of defensive value, especially if they are above average offensively and still be a part of a successful baseball team.

While I don't see Wilmer necessarily following Derek's career path, I do think he has shown enough to date that the Mets (and our fan base) need to exercise some patience and see where this all goes.   Wilmer's bat may end up being special (middle of the order, run producer) and his defense should continue to get better with more repetitions (compare his April defensive stats to his stats since that time....or look at his defensive stats from last year at short stop, which were solid).

I think Wilmer can hold down the fort at shortstop until such time that Ahmed Rosario or Gavin Cecchini force him off of the position in a couple more seasons (and that is a big if, since prospects are unpredictable).

***Complicating this issue may be the unexpected vacancy at third base, due to David Wright's health issues (if Wilmer can handle short stop, then I am confident that he can handle third base).  

Either way, I am pleased with Wilmer's progress to date and I think he has a role now and on future Mets' teams.

Now, about left and right field...