8/23/15

Mack’s Morning Report – 8-23-15 – Yoenis Cespedes

25 comments


Good morning.

Next week is the beginning of the easiest part of an easy remaining schedule for the Mets. There will be four games in Philadelphia against a team that the Mets have owned recently, followed by three, at home, against the Red Sox.

The Nats are off on Monday, followed by six home games, three against San Diego and three against Miami.



I don’t think I’m going to have too many things to cover this morning… except for Yoenes Cespedes.

Let’s face it, there are a bunch of great hitters in this game but Cespedes has quickly become the one we know. Curtis Granderson is having a wonderful year. The streaky Lucas Duda looks like he will hit home runs in the 25-30 range. And David Wright is on the way back next week. But it is Cespedes that has turned this team from a possible wild card contender to the favorite to win the National League East division.

Only David Wright can speak of these kind of lineup before. He was there when both Carlos Delgado and Carlos Beltran were solidly in the middle of the lineup, turning out these kind of power numbers. The Mets were feared in those days and it seems to be happening again now.

I’ve talked for years about how this young pitching staff was going to develop into one of the great ones in the game. I also spoke often about how much easier it is to win if your starting pitchers give up three of less runs in the first seven innings. Both of these things have been proven true this year.

What I never had a chance to write about was having the benefit of a player that can single handedly take this team on their shoulders and turn around a bad game into a crazy win (Friday night).

Sandy Alderson and the Wilpons do not need to see anymore that what’s in front of their eyes now. The team is pumped, the fan base is alive and positive, and even the press has turned positive.

There is plenty of money in the Wilpon’s business till to pay this guy what he is worth. The team/SNY is worth in the $2billion range and banks would line up to loan the Wilpons more money to firm up their real estate investments.

And make no mistake about it… that’s how the Wilpons consider this team to be… another of their real estate investments that, now, is churning out positive cash flow.

I would try for a sit down with YC’s agent and put a $20mil/yr – 4/yr deal on the table. I know this is probably going to be far less and far shorter than they will want to be, but you have to start somewhere, right?

I would do my homework before this meeting by sitting down with various vendors in CitiField to try and lock up a verbal commitment to make Cespedes the face of the franchise in future commercials throughout the city.

 Point out to his agent that there is a big void since Derek Jeter has retired and Cespedes just could be the guy to fill that gap.

This would result in millions of dollars that he would never get if he signed in most of the other cities that would be interested in his services.

What could be the hang-up?

Well, I’ve lived and worked in New York City and saw a huge chunk of my paycheck take for both State and City income tax. I also have lived and worked in both Florida and Texas, which have neither.

I hope the Mets and Cespedes can work something out here, but I’m not realistic. I’ve been lucky to have met many professional ballplayers and I can count on one hand that care whether they finish their career with the current team they are playing. They all realize that baseball is a business and they watch 65-70% of their current team turn over every three years.


We’re going to have to wait this one out and just be happy he’s here now.

25 comments:

Anonymous said...

I wouldn't take the "face of the franchise" route and would definitely not offer 4/$80, which may be seen an insult and shut the door right away. The ancillaries of a contract are just that, ancillaries. Show me the money is what any big star is going to want and I think that the basic parameters are going to be between what Choo got 6/$120 and Ellsbury 7/$153, heck even Lester got more than that. Once you have the basic parameters, add in a 20% premium to forgo FA and you may now have a conversation to be had, but no guarantee. Sorry to say, but the odds are long against him resigning with the Mets and it won't be Sandy or Wilpons fault, just a weird contractual arrangement which prevents them from counter offers. Mack-don't forget that the idea was to make Cano the face following Jeter, but $300M changed that. It is not a winning strategy for a resign, it is going to be about a monster overpay and to be honest, it may be a good deal for 2016 or 2017, but virtually every big second gen contract signed in the past few years has been a dog, with Pujols and Cano leading the pack, so a $200 M overpay with YC could blowback. Don't assume that the Wilpons are now flush and can spend like it is 2006. They had to borrow $25M two years ago for payroll, so I don't see that being reversed in total. NY team or no NY team, costs are a function of revenue and simply being located in NY does not fill the coffers. They will have more but not unlimited and will not have the luxury of whiffing on a $200M contract. Just my guess
Anon Joe F

Thomas Brennan said...

I think 6 years at $140 MM might do it. He would be worth it. In a few years, he'd be tradeable if Mets were so inclined. Keep the #1 pick too.

Metsiac said...

That sounds more like it, Tom. But two factors eexist:

1) His agent (Boras?) would have to agree to even listen to an offer, which is not his MO.

or

2) Cespedes would have to override his agent or find a new one.

Neither is likely.

If he would be the"face", he'd have to take a crash course in English.I was very surprised to see him needing a translator Friday night to answer simple questions. After all the time he's been in the majors, I expected him to have learned the language.

Ernest Dove said...

Speaking of 'franchise player' wasn't the shortstop of the opposing team the franchise player of the Mets along with Wright? Things happen. Follow the money. Lets enjoy Yoenis in 2015 (minus his minor antics of not running out hit grounders).
Quick sidenote on Reyes: im told the 7 line army in attendance at Coors Field were serenading him all night and even though he tried to ignore it, he couldn't help but smile and acknowledge them ;)

Thomas Brennan said...

On a different topic, the stupidity of coming back too soon, Duda misses a week, could have gone on DL for one more week then, which probably fixes the back. Instead, "I'm ready....whoops, I'm not" and now he misses at least 3 weeks rather than two. Going into Sept.

Anonymous said...

One other point on a YC contract. Don't assume you can move it in a few years, almost all of the recent 2nd Gen contracts are unmovable and weighing hard on payrolls.

Also, don't sleep on the Red Sox as tomato cans, they have played better recently and have tons of offense. Their pitching is bad, but the Mets offense can lay an egg at anytime, so I look at this as a tough series.

Anon Joe F

Mack Ade said...

Joe F

No game is safe if you are capable of giving up 18 runs in 2 games (no matter where those games are played)

Axel Freed said...

Don't do that:

One suggestion: respond directly to my comment(s) instead of being so easily offended and passive-aggressive (another excellent example of an oxymoron, BTW) and attempting to condescend to me in your response. How's that, Mack?

"Obviously writing about Yeones [Yoenis] Cespedes isn't high on your list these days"—I neither said nor meant that. So apparently not so obvious?

You want me to make suggestions instead of critiques? Well, let me ask you this: what's the difference? If I criticize you for something, wouldn't the SUGGESTION out of that then be: cease doing the thing for which I am criticizing you? It's semantics.

Which is really neither here nor there because Idk that I was doing either. What I said was this: "Oh, and writing an article every few days about whether he stays or goes and punctuating each one with 'let's just enjoy him' is a little contradictory. Just saying"—was merely bringing to your attention a point you were maybe not yet aware of (and a mildly amusing one at that). I would rather you just say thank you and be on your way.

—Axel

Anonymous said...

Maybe a few reasons not to fall in love with YC today at the expense of the future:

Robinson Cano
Albert Pujols
Ryan Braun
Josh Hamilton
Prince Fielder
Alex Rodriguez
Mark Texiera
Shin Soo Choo
Ryan Howard
Pablo Sandoval
Hanley Ramirez
Jacoby Ellsbury (not terrible yet)
Johan Santana
Carlos Beltran (some good but injuries)
Jason Bay
Giancarlo Stanton (great player but not $300m)
Jason Werth
Ryan Zimmerman
David Wright
Jose Reyes

Now there have been some that have lived up so far, like Cruz, Abreu and a few others, but they are more exceptions than the rule and most of these monster 2nd Gen contracts are paying for past performance, but get nowhere near the production they were expecting. A fair question to ask is what are the alternatives, which I honestly don't know, but a fair reading of the market over the past few years shows that the approach of overpaying on monster contracts is flawed and can seriously hamper a teams ability to invest in ongoing needs. Giving YC the mother load comes with serious risks and the numbers suggest that there is a far greater chance that it won't work out.

Anon Joe F

Axel Freed said...

We can do this all day. Don't you think it'd be easier to respond in a mature manner?

Mack Ade said...

To all -

It seems I have picked a bad subject for today. I also have been once again engaged with Axel who I am trying to rid the site of by erasing his posts. It isn't working. He keeps reposting the last one he sent.

I'm signing off for the day and will see you back next Friday.

Mack



Axel Freed said...

There's nothing in my post that warrants being deleted. There's no cursing, no disrespect, no anything.

Anybody want to chime in here?

Anonymous said...

You haven't cursed or anything but it seems you are picking fights for the purpose of getting under people's skin. That in my books is a troll. We can only do what Mack is doing and just ignore you.

MetsMusings Mack said...

I believe there is a chance to sign him as he is represented by Roc Nation Sports. 5/100mil would be a good starting point, go from there

Adam Smith said...

I love that we've got Cepedes (though I'm trying not to think too much about Fulmar's potential upside), but if the Wilpons are going to take on a huge, long-term contract, I don't think he's the guy they do it for. Not running out grounders and not learning English are relatively minor quibbles at the moment, but they don't exactly predict a guy who will be all out, every day to justify his contract once he's getting Paid with a capital P. That might not turn out to be true, and may or may not even be a fair judgement, but anyone they sign in that stratosphere will be, by definition, the face of the team (pitchers aside) and I think that the Wilpons will be loathe to commit their scarce resources to a guy they have any doubts about at all. Now, if he leads us to a WS this year, and performs well in the postseason, it gets harder to let him walk, and not saying that they definitely will do that, but still, I'd be surprised if they take the chance. That said, it will be very difficult to recreate the current dangerous offense without him.

Axel Freed said...

"Trolling now convenient way people label forceful argument with which they disagree. Then they don't have to rebut."

Think about it …

"Oh, and writing an article every few days about whether he stays or goes and punctuating each one with 'let's just enjoy him' is a little contradictory. Just saying [I believe this is the original comment with which he took issue]"—how is that picking a fight?

Dallas said...

Axel who cares? Its his site, if you dont like it email with him privately to discuss, why do the rest of us have to read this nonsense? The reason I dont read Metsblog comments is because of all the annoying commenters there to just complain about typos or insult Cerrone about any mistake he makes or to call him a shill. Its not interesting and doesnt add to the discussion.

Axel Freed said...

For example:

"I believe there is a chance to sign him as he is represented by Roc Nation Sports. 5/100mil would be a good starting point, go from there"—him being represented by Roc Nation doesn't help your argument, it hurts it. That's the same agency that got Cano 300 million.

See, that's not trolling. That's just true.

Dallas said...

Joe F, those are great example and I agree with most of it except Beltran. I think we got tremendous value for his contract. Yes his first year was a down year and he missed a half year for injury but what else can we grip about? Beltran could be a HOF and his Mets years were some of his best.

bob gregory said...

One thing I'm pretty sure of regarding the Cespedes contract talk.
None of us here have a good track record over the past few years of knowing the worth of players in regards to trades or free agency.
The players have had a tendency to go for less than we predict here.

Axel Freed said...

Dallas,

Yeah, fine, but I didn't do anything wrong—that's why I care. And if anyone looked at that objectively and without allegiances, they would see that. I don't call him names, nor am I so petty as to correct his grammar.

But he runs this blog like it's a communist country and I'm not allowed to speak out against it.

Robb said...

First off this was a very bad week for the wilpons financially. Basically the city pulled its support completely from the Willis point development and has concluded that it will probably not use eminent domain to move the auto parts businesses out that they wanted to turn into housing. So that extra 5 bill the wilpons were expecting is poof. You know katz is not a happy man.

though none of that should preclude a 150mm contract, but their financial planning might.

as with Cespedes. I dont know if they sign him, but in terms of baseball and marketing Roc Nation does the marketing deals. They still have a JV with CAA sports to do the actual contract (there's more money to be made as the agent in marketing deals, amazingly), but his agents could negotiate the deal if they choose too. So its not really open and shut, but his agent (brodie Van wagner i think) will want to get him as much money as possible, from wherever that will be, though for the life of me i cant figure where that is going to be, as it wont be the usual suspects.

someone mentioned him using a translator. Guys do this all the time, not because they dont speak English but because they are uncomfortable speaking English in interviews. they just dont want to make a mistake or look stupid in the public eye.

bob gregory said...

Robb
Great point regarding the translator.
Especially considering today's media and social media always looking for a story to get views. The easiest path to getting these usually involves negativity.
So, especially if your native language is not English, why expose yourself to added risk by conducting interviews in a language other than what you feel most comfortable using?
It sounds like he has always communicated fine with his teammates and coaches from whatever I have read.
A matter of fact I remember reading that he had a tendency to reach out and felt it important to build strong ties with his teammates.

Steve from Norfolk said...

Steve from Norfolk said...
I personally am here to learn, not to argue or watch other people argue. Mack has forgotten more about this game than most of us (yes, you, Axel) will ever learn. Between Mack, Chris, The Toms, Ernest, and any other writers I may have forgottem, I have received a very good education on the Mets, and the inner workings of baseball in general. I have developed a great respect for the people here, and Mack in particular.

Axel Freed said...

Nobody questioned his baseball knowledge, Steve. Missing the point.

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