Mack’s Morning Report – 8-29-15 – WAR, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, Bartolo Colon


Good morning.

John Larue http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-young-and-the-restless/ featured a great story on The Hardball Times about certain teams that had significant WAR –

While none will reach the Hall of Fame, beginning in 1985, the Mets found abundant WAR from Darryl Strawberry, Doc Gooden, Lenny Dykstra, Sid Fernandez, Ron Darling and David Cone, some of the best young talent ever collected by a single franchise.

Bryce Harper said –

 "I really don't care. If we don't win it doesn't matter. If something happens and we don't make it, it doesn't matter."

Mack – I really don’t care? AYFKM? Isn’t this the same guy that said earlier this year that he didn’t care what the Mets were doing? And, by the way… do you really want to play with someone on your team that ‘doesn’t matter’ whether your team makes the playoffs?

Look, I’m the first one to recognize Harper’s talent, but this guy so represents the Nationals arrogance we have all had to witness over this past off season. Let’s not forget the words of Jayson Werth while we’re at it.

I so hope the Nats are eliminated before the last series of the season at CitiField. Wouldn’t it be a hoot to play this team for something worth nuthin’.

I want to throw out the question as to whether or not the Mets should make a qualified offer to Daniel Murphy for the 2016 season. Yeah, I know he can be a real knucklehead sometimes on the field, regardless of what position he is playing, but I have to tell you, I’m going to miss his clutch bat. I really like what I’m seeing currently in the 2015 Mets and Murphy is one of those dugout/clubhouse leaders that have helped create this mental turnaround. Add that to the fact that he has always wielded a timely bat (and you just know there will be early injuries next year on this team), I’m just not sure if the Mets should let this guy go.


Bartolo Colon will spend the next few weeks basically auditioning for a spot on the postseason roster. The team has not ruled out using him in a late-inning relief role, but is leaving open the possibility of excluding him entirely.

          Mack – According to Martino, the Mets are starting to formulate in their mind who is going to be on their 25-man playoff roster. That makes sense at this point in the season.

There should be 11 pitches on the 2016 roster and any one of them could be Colon, Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Jon Niese, Noah Sundergaard, Steven Matz, Dario Alvarez, Vic Black, Tyler Clippard, Jeurys Familia, Sean Gilmartin, Erik Goeddel, Eric O’Flaherty, Hansel Robles, Carlos Torres, and Logan Verrett.

That’s 16 pitchers and, in my book, only deGrom and Harvey have locked up a rotation spot at this point.

It seems to me that Syndergaard and Niese’s next outing may be the most important they throw this season and could also help determine the fate of Colon.


Ernest Dove said...

Wow, where did that quote from harper come from.
Well anyway lets not forget that this young man was pretty much literally born and raised to play baseball. Didnt he just leave high school early (GED) to plan out his college at bats experience a year early before draft?
None of this talent has anything to do with leadership.
Notice how matt Harvey has probably the same confidence but also WANTS TO WIN.

Mack Ade said...

Dove -

Yeah... should have his face on the wikipedia page for Jerk

Tom Brennan said...

Vic Black lousy again last night. 2.02 WHIP this year in 32 minor league innings. He needs the winter to regroup. I'd rather put Paul Sewald (1.68, 0.83 WHIP, 54 Ks and 8 walks in 48 innings, with tons of saves) in the top 16.

Read those #s again. There is the injustice...why is he not in AAA, unless they plan to trade him? Nimmo has a substandard .354 slug % this year. Wilfred To far .356!

Maybe he needs to receive a message. To me, he needs a full year next year in AAA. DC would be #1 or #2 in BA and slug % in PCL...how does he deserve to sit? EY needs to play if they call him up Sept 1, even if (as he deserves) he only pinch runs. So if Nimmo sits til Sept 1 promos, too bad. Start hitting.

Sign Murph and trade Duda? We'd get a lot for him. Sign Cespedes.

eraff said...

Murphy at 15 Million???? To quote You, Mack,,,AYFKM!!!!!!?????

He's not a 10 million dollar guy!!!

Ernest Dove said...

Yeah I've stated before that im not comfortable with my playoff contending Mets having too many inexperienced players on 25 man but............if Dilson Herrera is 'the guy' he needs to stop hitting .350 in PCL and start April 2016 at second base in place of Murph.
And again the fact would also remain that Murph and colon being gone would free up about $20mil

Tom Brennan said...

Lucas Duda for Bryce Harper?

bgreg98180 said...

Regarding Murphy:

Still think the best idea is to offer qualifying offer.
If he accepts
Ok....overpay for 1 year but he is insurance for D. Wright's back and can always be traded mid year.

If he turns down the Qualifying Offer and signs for more years elsewhere...
Then enjoy the draft pick compensation.

bgreg98180 said...

Don't just cast Flores aside for the unproven Herrera.

Tom Brennan said...

Flores is a 25-90 guy next year, Bob. He stays. He plays. Hitting .314 the last 2 months. He is the future.

Robb said...

I think you try and hope for the cuddyer situation with murphy. I actually think he's going to get closer to 14mm a year for 4 years from someone. so i would qualify him. Worst case scenario he accepts, but 3 years 36 million looks better then 1 year 15 to a guy and thats worse case scenario. someone will overpay him bc he's goig to be a 290 guy with 15hr and they will overlook the murph plays stuff. He's better then chase headley at the moment. and the new market inneficiency is guys who can play three positions adequately (zobrist, etc) and hit like a regular. it give you flexibility. Id bet on the orioles.

Mack Ade said...

The Mets seem to have a good amount of second base options for 2016... I threw out the question about Murphy, but I still vote for an outside SS like Castro with Flores on 2B... but that's me.

Ernest Dove said...

Yeah the Mets seem to have a good problem going forward in the middle infield with Tejada Wilmer Murph and Herrera.

eraff said...

Herrera Can Hit, Glove and Run...he's a decent OBP guy---he's your 2b for 5-10 years.

Flores is a swing guy...poss 3b. He gets 400-500 abs, no matter what. If you want to trade Duda for some young arms and make 1b a Cuddyer/? platoon.... sign Cespedes for 4-5 years, if possible. This becomess a much better defensive team and speed team. You already have a nice 4 pc. outfield. Keep K Johnson......

bgreg98180 said...

Make Herrera force his way past Flores.
Don't just give 2b to him over Flores because Flores can play more than 1 position.

Flores has performed well on the major league level. Herrera hasn't yet.

Times have changed from the past few years.
No more just giving positions because of promise potential.

Prove you are better, or wait your turn.

bgreg98180 said...

Second base depth chart should be:

If one moves on because of free agency or trade the others move up accordingly

Steve from Norfolk said...


I just can't see paying for Castro. We could get a much better shortstop for what he would cost, and another player to boot. Plus, he just can't play SS worth a damn.

Tom, Trade Duda for Harper??? I wouyldn't have Harper on this team as a batboy, with his attitude. I know you're hot on Dom Smith, but he won't be ready for three years.

Herb G said...

All season long I have been accepting a as a given that they would/should let Murphy walk. More and more as the season wore on, I have come around to the idea of keeping him. There's no one I'd rather have at the plate against a RHP in a clutch situation than Murphy. I'd make the QO and would be happy with whatever he decided to do. If he took it, I'd trade Tejada and give Herrera reps at SS in ST so he and Wilmer could share time there.
We need to keep Duda until Smith is ready.

eraff said...

If you QO Murph, you'll own him at 1 year 14-15 million. He's a good ballplayer, with limits. At 10 million and above, he's a vast over pay---you're over-rating him.

Stubby said...

I'd QO Murph, and Colon is on my post-season staff easy (I suspect the Mets also have him on their post-season roster easy, too). I seriously doubt O'Flaherty's getting a ticket over Bartolo. At present, I don't see Alvarez, Black, Robles or Verrett making the cut either. I want Matz on my post-season, but I don't think he will be.

bgreg98180 said...

Flores: possible Jeff Kent comparison?

Mack Ade said...

Steve F.N. -

I know I'm pretty alone out there on Castro but I still think he would prospect in New York

That Adam Smith said...

I give Murph the QO, even at the risk of overpaying for a year. The DW injury situation creates a unique problem - even if he's healthy you don't want him playing more than 125 games or so, and he could go down long-term at any moment. A quality lefty bat that can play 1B, 2B and 3B, along with Flores from the right side allows you real flexibility in the IF, and the drop-off from DW if he goes down is a lot less painful. Let Johnson and Uribe go, get Herrera up here without the pressure of having to play every day at 22 years old, and shuffle him in with Tejada, Flores, Murph and DW. Keep everyone fresh all year and get the L/R match ups you want on any given day. This IF is working just fine. If Murph rejects the QO, take the draft pick.

Stubby said...

I'm with you on Castro, Mack (so I guess you'll be re-thinking your position now ;^) ). He's a six year veteran and a three-time All Star....at the age of 25. He's generally shown a good bat and some power. He's had a down year, sure--just about every shortstop in baseball has, for some reason. And I'm not really sure he'd be as expensive as a lot of people think. At the deadline, they were offering him up fairly cheap (or seemed to be). Russell is their shortstop of the future and the other two are dead weight to them. Baez has shown a decent bat and power as well, but has no major league track record at 22. WAR stats seem to indicate Castro doesn't lose games with his glove, but will win some with his bat. He's signed through 2019 and makes about 8 G's next year, 10 in 2017, 11 in 2018 and 12 in 2019. As the money it takes to sign quality free agents grows, Castro looks like a bargain and easily within the Mets budget. I think Castro would be an excellent fit with the Mets.

That Adam Smith said...

Call me crazy, but I'd rather have a Tejada/Flores combo at short than Castro at twice the price.

Metsiac said...

Mack- -- What's your gripe with "Rodney"? He 's outplayed Castro and many other SSs in every respect. He's only 25, and has 2 .280+ seasons behind him.

bgreg98180 said...

Again with Cespedes in the 2nd spot of the lineup? ??
Just stop.
Stop it.
Stop It.

Metsiac said...

You're not crazy, Adam, just a voice of reason. Sooner or later, maybe "Rodney" will get the respect he deserves.

Mack Ade said...

Metsiac -

I have no gripe with Tejada but I'm looking for positional upgrading.

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