There are a great many long held beliefs in baseball that
are rooted probably more in tradition than in numbers that people accept on
face value without questioning the metrics behind the fallacies. One of these oft-repeated chestnuts is the
value of post-season experience and how the presence of veteran players gives
an edge to a playoff-bound team. You’d
like to think that this situation is true, but the numbers simply fail to back
it up.
Back in 2013 Baseball Prospectus ran an interesting article
by Russell A. Carleton in which he examined the empirical data from 1995
through 2012 (when the Wildcard system originated) to look at the question of
whether or not players who have been to the post-season in the past performed
markedly better than those individuals who had not. In the case of the New York Mets, they had
better hope the results dictate that post-season experience is not a predictive
factor for success as they have relatively few players on the roster who have
logged significant time playing October baseball:
Position
|
Name
|
Years of Post-Season Experience
|
C
|
Anthony Recker
|
0
|
C
|
Travis d'Arnaud
|
0
|
IF
|
Juan Uribe
|
5
|
IF
|
Ruben Tejada
|
0
|
IF
|
Daniel Murphy
|
0
|
IF
|
Wilmer Flores
|
0
|
IF
|
Lucas Duda
|
0
|
OF
|
Juan Lagares
|
0
|
OF
|
Kelly Johnson
|
3
|
OF
|
Curtis Granderson
|
4
|
OF
|
Michael Cuddyer
|
6
|
OF
|
Michael Conforto
|
0
|
OF
|
Yoenis Cespedes
|
2
|
P
|
Logan Verrett
|
0
|
P
|
Carlos Torres
|
0
|
P
|
Noah Syndergaard
|
0
|
P
|
Hansel Robles
|
0
|
P
|
Eric O'Flaherty
|
1
|
P
|
Jon Niese
|
0
|
P
|
Matt Harvey
|
0
|
P
|
Sean Gilmartin
|
0
|
P
|
Jeurys Familia
|
0
|
P
|
Jacob deGrom
|
0
|
P
|
Bartolo Colon
|
6
|
P
|
Tyler Clippard
|
2
|
IF
|
David Wright
|
1
|
P
|
Erik Goeddel
|
0
|
So what did Mr. Carleton find?
Hitters who are experienced strike out less in post-season
situations but they also hit fewer home runs.
Pitchers who’ve been there before give up more singles but not as many
extra-base hits. After compiling the
numbers it became clear that neophytes to October baseball fared just as well
overall as the ones whose resume included many innings and games of post season
experience.
That analysis should come as good news for the Mets since
the projected starting lineup and rotation includes 3 position players – Curtis
Granderson, Yoenis Cespedes and David Wright – who have had playoff
experience. The starting rotation will
likely include none, with the bullpen featuring just Tyler Clippard and the
expected conversion of Bartolo Colon to reliever with the “young guns” rotation
likely to get the starting duties.
Like a great many “conventional wisdom” beliefs in baseball
such as not talking about a no-hitter while it’s taking place, this one has no
basis in fact. It’s good to see there is
no decided disadvantage simply because the majority of the Mets players have
never been to the playoffs.
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