8/31/15

The Morning Report 8.31.2015 | Familia Reveals a 4th Pitch, 1st Wave of September Call-ups, Parnell Fixing his Arm Slot, Cespedes...Is he Worth the Money?

23 comments


Brian Lewis | New York Post- Closing isn’t just about talent, but temperament as well. History has shown that takes a special sort of pitcher to shoulder the burden of finishing a game, especially in a pennant race. On Sunday, the crowd of 38,938 saw Familia betrayed by a Ruben Tejada double-clutch on Rusney Castillo’s leadoff hit in the ninth, and then allow Blake Swihart’s single. Familia’s sinker was off so he unveiled a new splitter both he and Collins said will make him even better.
“It’s going to elevate him,’’ Collins said. “He’s one of the best in the game. This guy’s got 100 mph [heat], he’s got a great sinker, the split is starting to be more consistent for him, you see him starting to get hitters out with sliders.

(Chris Soto: Oh man...that splitter he threw last night was just unfair. Familia's sinking fastball is one of the best in all of the MLB, however, we have seen him get into some serious trouble on the rare occassion that pitch in "off." Without his sinker, hitters can sit dead red and spit on the slider. Adding the splitter to the arsenal gives him a 2nd breaking pitch that "looks" like a fastball but then falls off the table making him all the more dangerous late in the game.)



Adrian Knowler Amazin Avenue- The Mets will promote Eric Campbell, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Kevin Plawecki, and Eric Young Jr. when rosters expand on Tuesday. Steven Matz will also join the club after making one more rehab start. Campbell, Nieuwenhuis, and Plawecki have all spent time on the Mets' active roster this year [but Young is] not on the 40-man roster, which means the Mets will have to remove someone from it to add him to it before he joins the team on Tuesday.

(Chris Soto: As was intially thought, the Mets are going to promote Eric Young Jr to the 40 man and active roster to give the bench a speed boost down the stretch. In the past we would see some of these guys left down in AAA to help the 51s with their playoff push...but these are different times now. The Mets can smell the playoffs so screw the AAA and AA teams. If you have value to the club, you better believe that you should be packing your bags for a flight to Queens.)



David Hong Metsmerized Online- Mets reliever Bobby Parnell threw a live batting practice session on Sunday morning at Citi Field. He is expected to come off the DL on Tuesday, which is also the day rosters expand. The Mets reportedly gave Parnell the option of being designated for assignment, going to the minors or being placed on the DL three weeks ago and Parnell chose the DL. While inactive, Parnell has worked with pitching coach Dan Warthen to adjust his mechanics and get his arm higher so he can avoid “pushing” the ball toward the plate. “I feel like the ball’s coming out a lot better — a lot easier, too. I didn’t feel like I was ‘muscling’ it,” Parnell said. “The rest definitely helped.”

(Chris Soto: Dan Warthen may be on to something here. According to data compiled by Brooks Baseball Pitch F/X tracking systems, though it doesn't seem like a lot, Parnell's vertical release point was lower this season. In fact, his average release point in 2015 is similar to his 2011 release point when control problems flared up on him. Getting his arm higher will put him in a better position to drive through the ball which will induce more groundballs rather than line drives.)



Ernie Palladino CBS New York- It doesn’t take a great mind to see how Yoenis Cespedes has helped change the Mets. What does is determining whether Cespedes should remain part of the franchise once the lease the Mets signed July 31 runs out. The notoriously flinty Wilpons will have to decide whether the money he’ll look for in free agency is equal to the financial pain the owners will have to endure to keep him around. Anyone who has followed the Mets knows that this ownership group regards outward cash flow as others do dental implants — painful periods endured simply to keep up appearances, such as they have been. But the recent success, much of it spurred by the 29-year-old former Oakland/Boston/Detroit star, might just get the moneymen to open up the pocketbook for him. 

(Chris Soto: Here's the thing...In the past, we would have never entertained the idea of signing another player for big money. However, did you know that todays "Full Year" payroll is $132M?. The right sizing and the balancing of contracts under Sandy Alderson actually going to rear it's "ugly" head on the bright side this season. As it stands right now, the Mets only have $60M committed to the 2016 team, $40M committed to the 2017 team, and $26M to the 2018 team. Of course, after you add in arbitration raises for Harvey, Duda, and Familia, that number rises by about $22M, but that is still about $70M less than today's current Full Year payroll. Lets assume that the Wilpons have enjoyed the packed Citi Field enough to give Alderson a starting budget of $120M next season. Higher than 2015's starting but lower than 2015's current. That gives him almost $40M to play with to fill...very few holes. Certainly $20M of that balance can go to Cespedes, right? )

23 comments:

Ernest Dove said...

Im definitely ok with all of the above names being called up to help this team. We've had our arguments regarding most them being deserving of place on 25man but this is different. They can all contribute EXCLUSIVELY from the bench.
Now we need more pitchers to show up.

Zozo said...

Pay the man!!!! He is definitely going to get Ellsbury/ Choo type money. So give him 7years 140 million and call it a day. Hopefully this ownership group brings the payroll where it should be in 130-140 million land?

Zozo said...

Who are they going to drop from the 40 man for EY jr?

Ernest Dove said...

My guess #1 is one mr Muno (sorry Tom)

Metsiac said...

Before a 40_man move for EY, a spot must be cleared for Reed today. And another later on if Goeddel is re-activated. That's at least 2 and likely 3 before the season ends.

Then after the season, all those on the 60-day DL come off, and in November space must be cleared so MnLers can be protected from the Rule 5. Looks like a lot of bodies being moved.

Christopher Soto said...

A 40 man roster move was already made for Addison Reed.

Wilfredo Tovar was placed on the 60 Day DL, thus removing him from the 40 man roster.

As for EYJ....Muno is the likely culprit....then for Goeddel, O'Flaherty may end up going since Dario Alvarez is getting the call up.

Anonymous said...

Guys like Kirkkkkk and Campbell have been with the team this year and contributed along the way. They will fit into the clubhouse and not make an ounce of trouble. A nice reward; I like it.

Plawecki can actually help & allow TDA to PH on days off.

EY is another veteran who can fit into the clubhouse without a problem. Maybe he can run the bases before games?

O'Flaherty cannot be killed. This team has a fixed idea on the value of a LOOGY and no amount of reality will move them off the notion. They keep hoping that O'Flaherty will come around to get that big mythic out. It's goofy.

James Preller

Thomas Brennan said...

Dario gave up 2 runs last night, so now he has allowed 3 runs since June 1...all 3 let in by other subsequent relievers.

Danny Muno will join the Republican field if he is dropped from 40 man. He 'd have the Nevada vote.

Now it is clear why EY Jr was signed...to allow Ceciliani to stay for the AAA playoffs. He's probably as good a bag swiper (21 of 26 this year in about a half season's worth of games) as EY, and DC is the better player now otherwise, but either of them may get to do little more than pinch run, hence EY.

Sign Cespedes. When fans flock to games, $$ flows in, Yoenis is a sound investment.

Anonymous said...

I am surprised you can't see the difference between EY and Ceciliani. One guy is a veteran who has been there, done that, and will fit seamlessly into the Mets clubhouse. They know exactly what he can do. As a baserunner, he's brilliant.

Ceciliani is relatively new and inexperienced. Has he ever played in a high-pressure game, with 35,000 in the stands?

There is no plot against Ceciliani. He's simply not the guy they trust.

And he's not that good. His steal % in AAA is barely adequate.

James Preller

Anonymous said...

Only the Mets keep recycling the same manure players. There is a reason EY was dfa'd by the Mets. Did they forget this quickly? Did they forget already that he couldn't even steal bases and was being thrown out by opposing catchers?

In other news, EY and Terry's picture of them holding hands is back on Collins desk. Right along the one of Terry and Tejada holding hands.

bob gregory said...

It will be interesting to see if, with roster's expanded, Collins actually begins.to use O'Flaherty as the Lefty Specialist he is apparently supposed to be.

Anonymous said...

Two probably unpopular opinions:

1.Palladino with another lazy hack article about Wilpons being cheap; I don't believe they are cheap, they are broke. Now they may be to blame because of poor financial management, but when they had cash flow, they spent a lot and never were like the Pirates who were making money, taking profit share and still did not increase payroll. If you simply look at the Wilpons as cheap, it misses so many different elements of the equation. It may be easy to do because it is in line with a favorite meme about the Mets, but that does not make it correct.

2. I love what Cespedes has done for the Mets and he is a large part of the good vibe going on right now, but I would not give him the Choo or Ellsbury contract. Maybe Trout, Harper or Bryant (when they are due) but just about every contract like this that has been offered over the past 5 years has fallen flat on its face. Cano is just one of about two dozen contracts that serve as a cautionary tale against going whole hog on a player, including David Wright. I don't have any great alternatives, but shelling out $20M+ per year for 5-7 years has turned out to be a terrible model for just about every player who has gotten one. I like Cespedes, but not if it means another wilderness period for the mets in 4 years or so. If they could do 4 years and sign him, I would be in for an overpay, but 5 + years has DOG written all over it.
Anon Joe F

Metsiac said...

While I'd love to keep Cespedes, the "need" isn't as strong as a year ago. If we had to go into '16 with an OF quartet of Cuddy, Conforto, Lag and Grandy, with Kirk or Nimmo as #5, where's the problem?

Robb said...

The thing about signing cespedes is you have to basically buy out the rights to the free market bc of the language in his contract. so you dont just have to be competitive you have to make him foresake being a free agent. if his agent even thinks theres more money out there he's not going to sign. so you offer 5 years 110, which btw is fair, but he thinks there might be a 7 156 offer, he isnt going to sign before finding out.

Anonymous said...

I agree Robb. I think you make that offer and hope he decides to go for happiness and an ideal situation over pure money. But if that's his jam, then oh well. I have a hunch that case histories like Jose Reyes might prove instructive for some modern players: the most money is not often the best deal.

And Joe F, I hear you on that. You may be right. But I want him anyway, and I want the budget to rise. This team can be a WS contender for the next 3 years and I think they need one middle of the order bat to make it happen. Cespedes fills that bill for me, and can play CF the next two seasons. He's still, what, only 29?

James Preller

Thomas Brennan said...

No Mets plot seen on Ceciliani. He is being kept in AAA for playoffs. Right call. Mets wanted a speedster to call up Sept 1 without totally gutting the Vegas roster, so they signed EY. Who did not hit much with Mets, and hit .169 with Braves, and left .345 / .580 Ceciliani in AAA. DC has been one of AAA's best in 2015.

I'm cool with that decision. Just call him up after the playoffs.

Gary Seagren said...


To me it's about the next 3 years for sure when we'll still have the fantastic five and YC to me would be worth the contract. Look this franchise is in it's 54th year and we have 2 championships (as well as I'm not getting any younger) so now is the time "to go for it". We know were going to pay for it down the line but this "window of opportunity" MUST be taken advantage of.

Stubby said...

Joe F, $20 mil isn't the new ceiling, its the new floor. If you won't pay $20 mil per for a Cespedes, then you likely won't be signing any impact players ever again. Trout? Trout may be the first $100 mil per year guy; you sure aren't getting him for $20 mil or even $30 mil per. My guess is, today, Trout would get $40 mil per from someone if he were a free agent. If the Mets could keep Cespedes for $20 mil per, they'd have a bargain by today's standards. I just don't think they'll be able to keep him at that. And I actually think Cano has earned his money; it isn't his fault Seattle didn't put a winning team around him. David Wright? We kept him for 50 cents on the dollar, essentially; I think it was well worth it, overall.

Now where I might disagree with others is I think you sign Cespedes for two years, not seven. Then he's not tied up and the Mets aren't tied down. In today's market, you sign your prospects to the long term deals and free agents to short ones. And, yes, that's all about the money. One certainly hopes Conforto or Nimmo or someone else in the system can become the hitter Cespedes is, but they aren't yet. Cespedes is likely not re-signing with us, but that means we'll have to go looking for a bat on the market (Me, I'd want another bat even if Cespedes stays) and that's likely going to cost you as much as, if not more than, Cespedes. You have to acknowledge that, with that bat, the Mets are contenders and, without it, they are not. The Jay Bruce talks continue, I hear. He's short term cheaper, but he's neither as good as Cespedes, overall, nor does he play center field at all. Outside of Jason Heyward, I'm not seeing any hitter comparable to Cespedes in the coming free agent pool. And I don't see Heyward coming in under $20 mil per, either.

The Wilpons are neither poor nor broke. What they are are real estate developers. Real estate developers are, by their nature, "cash poor". With or without Maddoff, the Wilpons (and any other real estate developer) will always be "cash poor", because their money is always tied up in "the next deal". Its the nature of the profession and of those who go into it. Did the Maddoff deal restrict their cash flow even more than usual? No doubt. Can they "afford" to sign Cespedes to a deal of $20 mil per or better? No doubt.

Pay Cespedes the $20 mil per. If you can get him for that, you'll have done very well. If you sign him for two years at $30 mil per, you're probably still going to be on the plus side of the ledger (and that's likely what it'll take to keep him from going free agency, if even that can do it).

Anonymous said...

Stubby, you can't even have a preliminary conversation if you are only offering two years. It's a joke. You don't even get into the room.

Agents and GMs have pre- preliminary talks when the roughest perimeters are discussed. Minimum five years, $20 per is probably the starting point.

Two say you'd only sign him for two years is tantamount to saying you don't want to sign him. Which is fine, but you can't pretend it's otherwise.

James Preller

bob gregory said...

Whether it is cheapness or being broke......

A NY team should not have to go through 5-6 years of less than mediocrity while steadily decreasing payroll into the bottom 1/3 of the league.

Whether it was cheapness or being broke......Maybe owning a NY team is not for the Wilpons going forward if the next season leads to more hurting the major league team while keeping payroll in the lower 1/2 of the league.

Of course..... the second half of this season seems to be leading toward a future without such worries.

I am going to think positively and hope the dark days are behind the Mets.

Stubby said...

I think you're wrong, James. The trend has been toward signing prospects to very long term deals--some before they've played a game in the majors--and signing established stars from the free agent pool to shorter term deals. The reasons are obvious. A prospect craps out on a ten year deal, the losses are minimal. Whereas one star signed for too long becomes a drain and a burden to everybody. Until the next bargaining session, this is the new paradigm. The change over isn't complete. Some teams still buy into the long term deal for the 32 year old hurler. Consequently, there may well be teams willing to offer Cespedes a 7 year deal. But the teams who won't offer more than 3 are the smart ones and the teams offering 7 are dinosaurs headed for extinction. Cespedes is at a good age, though, where a short term deal won't destroy his future earnings potential. If anything, barring a career ending injury, it enhances it.

Let's say you've determined that the fair market value for Cespedes today is $26 mil per. And say there's a team out there offering 7 years at $150 mil. First of all, that's below market value. Today. And, if Cespedes remains productive as salaries across the league rise, then it's well below market value in the out years. Now, some players crave security. Fine. But, again barring career ending injury, a two year deal ABOVE market value (say $30 mil per) actually sets him up to capitalize on a much bigger leap up as a free agent. He and even Boras can be sold this because its true. He can have 7 years at roughly 20 mil per...or...he can have two years at $30 million per and then sign for 4 at $40 mil per (or certainly not less than $30 mil per). A short term deal is to Cespedes' advantage. Plus, we're going to be in the thick of things for the next two or three years, so lots of national exposure from New York, New York.

Bob, neither you nor I (nor all of us together) controls who owns baseball teams, nor what they get to do with them, once they own them. Anymore than I can or should control your home and income and tell you what to do with those. That's as true of a team in New York as it is a team in Kansas.

bob gregory said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
bob gregory said...

Stubby....
You are absolutely correct ...
Me, you, all Mack's Mets followers, and every Met fan that has ever watched a Met game can not control who owns a MLB team
But...
MLB Does control who owns a team. As they have already proven, the MLB can either directly tell an owner to sell or provide pressure to make them sell.
And....
This is where me, other Met fans, other baseball fans, writers, bloggers...etc.... Can exert some influence in mass.

BUT... like I stated above,
I am being positive and believing such will not be a concern. I am going to go ahead and believe that the Dark Days of the Mets are behind them.

Mack's Mets © 2012