Mack’s Morning Report – 12-11-15 – Ben Jobrist, Neil Walker, Net Talent Gain/Loss, Seth Lugo, Jayce Boyd


Good morning.

A last thought on the non-Ben Jobrist deal.

The word is that the Mets last offer here was 4-years at a total of $32-48mil (depending upon who you believe), not only far less than what Zobrist signed for with the Cubs but also lower than the Nats offer.

Was the Mets really serious here? They had to know that an offer like this was never going to be enough here.

In my opinion, the Jon Niese for Neil Walker deal makes a lot of sense. You get yourself a switch-hitting second baseman that could also either be platooned with Wilmer Flores or Dilson Herrera, if you decide to keep Flores at shortstop. It also keeps the majority of the money you were willing to commit to Ben Jobrist in play so you can now concentrate on upgrading your outfield.

The loss of Niese obviously creates a situation in which Steven Matz will step up as the chief left hand starter, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Sean Gilmartin comes to camp projected as a possible starter next season.

There are a lot of Mets fans out there that currently judge the 2016 Mets as a team with a net loss off two players, Yoesnes Cespedes and Daniel Murphy. I’m not one of them.

To me, the addition of Neil Walker balances off the loss of Murphy.

That’s leaves you the loss of Cespedes to weight against the addition of Steven Matz and Michael Conforto for a full season and Zack Wheeler and Jenrry Mejia for the second half. Yes, there is less power than 2016, but far more potential talent, especially in pitching.

          Seth Lugo, RHP, New York

KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 1.4 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 0.1 WAR
A 34th-round selection in the 2011 draft, Lugo clawed his way all the way to the Triple-A level last year. He fanned 22% of opposing hitters between Double-A and Triple-A while walking just 6%, leading to a solid 3.44 ERA. The numbers are good, but as with many of these names on this list, the stuff isn’t.

Jayce Boyd, 1B/LF

KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 2.1 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 1.2 WAR
Boyd split 2015 between Double-A and Triple-A, where he hit a respectable .281/.338/.381. Boyd hits very few homers, but makes a lot of contact and has demonstrated some doubles power in his three-plus years in the Mets system. He scuffled following a mid-season promotion to Triple-A last year, but perhaps some team will give him a whirl as their part-time first baseman or corner outfielder.


Thomas Brennan said...

The harsh light of day for Lugo and Boyd...from here on out, will their inherent talent get them to the bigs? We'll see.

I had read Zobrist 4- $80MM a day before he signed. Well the Mets 32 and 48 range you cited...add the 2 and you get $80. Plan B so much better.

Sign Cespedes. Win a World Series. Or 5.

Mack Ade said...

I liked Boyd when he came through Savannah. A pure hitter but no real power.

Thomas Brennan said...

I just wonder if, and how much, the surgery Boyd needed lowered his ceiling. If it caused him any permanent loss of power, that could be a mort@l blow to his major league aspirations, since lack of power was a big issue in the first place.

Christopher Soto said...

Nationals in play for OF Jason Heyward to play CF for them.

The Mets CANNOT afford to let the Nationals get Heyward. I saw some interesting comments from Ricco yesterday, stated that "a full-time replacement for Lagares in CF is not out of the question."

I wonder if the Nationals involvement has changed the Mets course of thinking about signing Heyward. Could they make a late push to grab him? I hope so....

Zozo said...

I hope so too. Go get Heyward

Mack Ade said...

Having a direct competitor step up and try and sign someone like Heyward should wake the Mets up on this issue, but my guess is they won't get in a pissing war with the Mets. I think they will continue to look for a partner for Lagares, not a popular decision, but a far more cheaper one.

Zozo said...

Or Cespedes? If the Nats get Heyward that would make it there 4th player on their roster to get a $100 mil contract. We currently have 1, is it too much to ask by adding another? Getting 1 or both Cespedes and Heyward keeps us in line with what the Cubs, Arizona, SF, and the Dodgers have done or will do this offseason. The past 36 hours have been real good but but kick it into overdrive and bring us to the finish line Wilpons/ Saul/ Sandy!!!

Mack Ade said...

I mean a pissing war with the Nats

Mack Ade said...

Zozo -

The infield signs were significant but my guess is the fan base will judge the success or failure of the off-season on who is signed for the outfield.

Thomas Brennan said...

Zozo, agree on Cespedes to be re-signed by Mets. I think Heyward wants too many years. Those 8 Wright years look all Wrong. Baseball is insane.

Kevin S said...

Player comparison

Player A: 65 HRs since 2012

2012: .269/.335/.479 - OPS+ 117
2013: .254/.349/.427 - OPS+ 114
2014: .271/.351/.384 - OPS+ 109
2015: .293/.359/.439 - OPS+ 116

Player B: 69 HRs since 2012

2012: .280/.342/.426 - OPS+ 112
2013: .251/.339/.418 - OPS+ 114
2014: .271/.342/.467 - OPS+ 126
2015: .269/.328/.427 - OPS+ 107

Player A is Jason Heyward
Player B is Neil Walker

Essentially, Jason Heyward is Neil Walker in RF about to make $200M. People are vastly overvaluing Heyward and undervaluing Walker.

Zozo said...

I love the Neil Walker trade and numbers don't lie, but I just am going with my gut and that is Heywards potential could be right below a Trout and Harper batting wise. Also his stellar defense in The outfield will only help our pitchers.

Kevin S said...

I'm not going to pretend to be a Heyward expert so I'm going off his numbers. Paying guys for speed and defense is always a bad long term investment in my opinion. I understand Heyward is a FA at a younger age then most guys but I just don't see a $200M player.

In my opinion, which is based solely on watching him as a member of the Braves in games vs the Mets, he has flaws in his swing. He swings extremely hard yet generates average power at best. His numbers play better in CF but how will his defense grade out? There are a lot of things to like about Heyward. I just can't count 200 million.

Herb G said...

I am in agreement with Kevin. Heyward just doesn't produce enough to warrant anything near 10/$200. I think Plan B was great. Walker could outperform BenZ this year. And I think Flores will be semi-platooned with Walker against left handed pitching. (With Dilson maturing at AAA) Although I am a Cespedes fan, wanting that surge of power in the middle of the lineup, I wonder if a team with Walker at 2B, Asdrubal at SS and Lagares/Span or Parra in CF is enough to get to the post season. If not, SA still has July to make the course correction.

Thomas Brennan said...

Herb, I think what you propose (and agreeing with Kevin's no Heyward critique) is a good approach, but I still prefer Cespedes to be added, so we can crush the East.

bob gregory said...

I could be wrong...
But, from what I have seen of Heyward, in regards to the Mets, he would be looked at as a leadoff hitter with some power.

I would focus my money (I am sure this won't be a surprise to anyone) on a 3rd & 4th place hitter
Only after those positions are committed to being filled would I consider Heyward.

Charles said...

I would never pay Heywood 200 million. I think he's a really poor mans version of Cespedes. Basically Ces without the pop.

If pay Ces 20 mill a year for 5 years, but no more.

The Mets, according to most outlets, offered the same money to Zobrist that the Cubs did. It was reported that the Giants actually offered 4/60 for him. He wanted to play for the Cubs. And thank God. Paying Wright, Cuddyer, and Zobrist 47 million next year is a lot of money for two guys at or over 35 yrs old and one who is broken.

I like the versatility that they have. When they got Johnson and Uribe last season, they started winning. They have that again with Walker and Cabrera. Now, the mission piece is a good contact/power bat that can play outfield. Wether that's a platoon in center or a legit big free agent, it doesn't matter.

They also need to shore up their bullpen. It can't be a coin toss up to the ninth inning every night. If they aren't going to a Cespedes or JH, they should look to acquire a couple lock down relievers. Shorten the game as much as possible. Make it so you may only need to score 3 runs a game.

Metsiac said...

I've read that our 40 is full, so to sign Colon and FAs for CF and the pen, cuts will be needed.

Who do you feel are most vulnerable?

Kevin S said...

Ceciliani and Campbell would be on the chopping block for position players. Torres and Jeff Walters look like pitchers who should be concerned. Monell is expendable and Ruben's role is somewhat cloudy at the moment. In theory, Walker replaces Murphy and Cabrera replaces Flores who replaces Kelly Johnson. The Mets operated with Ruben, Wilmer, Uribe and Johnson all on the 25 man down the stretch so I assume Ruben could stick around but I'm not sure anymore. I think they only tendered him a contract because they weren't sure if they would be able to add another SS.

Mack Ade said...

Metsiac -

First, I never wonder who is the best to remove. In my opinion, it's positional, sometimes based on who you sign.

Right now, too many shortstops, I think Tejada is ripe for a DFA.

Kevin S said...

I'd DFA Campbell well before Ruben. Campbell he doesn't belong anywhere near the 25 man roster so no reason to keep him on the 40. Between Walker, Cabrera, Wright and Flores you have 4 guys who can play 3B on the active roster.

Christopher Soto said...

Heyward has made his decision.

Informing teams now.

Reports are indicating that the Nationals and Cardinals do not think they have won.

SO it's either the Cubs, Angels, or a "mystery team"

Christopher Soto said...

Heyward signs with the Cubs

Herb G said...

I too would prefer they sign Ces rather than a LH compliment to Lagares. But I also see the wisdom of signing a Span or Parra, and then adding the big bat at the deadline if we need to make a push. This way, there will be sufficient flexibility to sign Colon, another bench piece like Johnson, and a reliever or two.

Zozo said...

Yeah that is monster of a team, Holy Shat

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