Mack’s Morning Report – 12-11-15 – Ben Jobrist, Neil Walker, Net Talent Gain/Loss, Seth Lugo, Jayce Boyd
Posted by Mack Ade at 8:00 AM
A last thought on the non-Ben Jobrist deal.
The word is that the Mets last offer here was 4-years at a total of $32-48mil (depending upon who you believe), not only far less than what Zobrist signed for with the Cubs but also lower than the Nats offer.
Was the Mets really serious here? They had to know that an offer like this was never going to be enough here.
In my opinion, the Jon Niese for Neil Walker deal makes a lot of sense. You get yourself a switch-hitting second baseman that could also either be platooned with Wilmer Flores or Dilson Herrera, if you decide to keep Flores at shortstop. It also keeps the majority of the money you were willing to commit to Ben Jobrist in play so you can now concentrate on upgrading your outfield.
The loss of Niese obviously creates a situation in which Steven Matz will step up as the chief left hand starter, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Sean Gilmartin comes to camp projected as a possible starter next season.
There are a lot of Mets fans out there that currently judge the 2016 Mets as a team with a net loss off two players, Yoesnes Cespedes and Daniel Murphy. I’m not one of them.
To me, the addition of Neil Walker balances off the loss of Murphy.
That’s leaves you the loss of Cespedes to weight against the addition of Steven Matz and Michael Conforto for a full season and Zack Wheeler and Jenrry Mejia for the second half. Yes, there is less power than 2016, but far more potential talent, especially in pitching.
From Fangraphs http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/katohs-rule-5-pref-list-the-pitchers/ –
Seth Lugo, RHP, New York
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 1.4 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 0.1 WAR
A 34th-round selection in the 2011 draft, Lugo clawed his way all the way to the Triple-A level last year. He fanned 22% of opposing hitters between Double-A and Triple-A while walking just 6%, leading to a solid 3.44 ERA. The numbers are good, but as with many of these names on this list, the stuff isn’t.
Jayce Boyd, 1B/LF
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 2.1 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 1.2 WAR
Boyd split 2015 between Double-A and Triple-A, where he hit a respectable .281/.338/.381. Boyd hits very few homers, but makes a lot of contact and has demonstrated some doubles power in his three-plus years in the Mets system. He scuffled following a mid-season promotion to Triple-A last year, but perhaps some team will give him a whirl as their part-time first baseman or corner outfielder.