12/29/15

The Morning Report 12.29.2015 | Binghamton Mets Sold but Staying In Binghamton, 2016 STEAMER Hitting Projections, Chapman Traded for NOTHING

33 comments


Tim Heiman | Binghamton Mets- vans Street Baseball Inc., headed by John Hughes, announced today that they have completed the purchase of the Binghamton Mets from the Binghamton Mets Baseball Club, Inc. New ownership has pledged to keep the team in Binghamton and expand the B-Mets' experience for families, students, businesses, and the New York Mets. The Binghamton Mets will continue to play at NYSEG Stadium and provide an exciting atmosphere for loyal fans. Mr. Hughes said, "Having a Double-A, New York Major League Baseball affiliate in the Southern Tier is a tremendous opportunity, so great attention will be focused to ensure the team has top-grade facilities and the infrastructure necessary to develop Major League talent."

(Chris Soto: This is excellent news for the Mets organization. There was a ton of scuttlebutt about the team being sold and moved into Canada, over to Connecticut, or even down to the Baltimore area but thankfully the B-Mets were able to find a partner that wanted to keep the team in NY. It's encouraging to see Mr. Hughes talk about upgrading the player facilities. The stadium is a wonderful atmosphere for fans but definitely is lacking amenities that could help improve the work-outs and development of the players.)


2016 STEAMER600 Hitting Projections Fangraphs

RF Curtis Granderson | .232 AVG, .329 OBP, .412 SLG, 22 HR, 61 RBI, 9 SB, 1.9 WAR
2B Neil Walker          | .258 AVG, .329 OBP, .427 SLG, 19 HR, 69 RBI, 3 SB, 2.5 WAR
3B David Wright        | .267 AVG, .338 OBP, .410 SLG, 15 HR, 65 RBI, 7 SB, 2.9 WAR
1B Lucas Duda           | .238 AVG, .341 OBP, .435 SLG, 25 HR, 76 RBI, 2 SB, 2.1 WAR
C Travis d'Arnaud      | .257 AVG, .320 OBP, .444 SLG, 17 HR, 57 RBI, 1 SB, 3.0 WAR
LF Michael Conforto  | .260 AVG, .321 OBP, .435 SLG, 21 HR, 73 RBI, 4 SB, 2.4 WAR
SS Asdrubal Cabrera   | .243 AVG, .305 OBP, .394 SLG, 16 HR, 64 RBI, 7 SB, 1.1 WAR
CF Juan Lagares        | .257 AVG, .297 OBP, .366 SLG, 8 HR, 54 RBI, 10 SB, 2.0 WAR 


(Chris Soto: It's important to note that STEAMER is generally a conservative projection system. That said, the batting averages aren't too sexy in this line-up but the balanced power throughout is extremely nice and is far beyond anything we've had over the past few years entering the beginning of the season. In order for the Mets to get back to the World Series though.....someone is going to have to outperform. Granderson's projection in particular looks like an extreme drop off as he posted a +5.1 WAR season in 2015 thanks to a .259 AVG, 364 OBP, .457 SLG slash line. A 2016 season relatively close to that combined with better numbers from a healthy [chuckles] David Wright and a return to 2014 Lucas Duda would go a long way for this offense.)



HOT STOVE REPORT (courtesy of mlbtraderumor.com)
  • The Yankees traded 3B Eric Jagielo, 2B Tony Renda, RHP Rookie Davis, RHP Caleb Cotham to the Cincinnati Reds for CL Aroldis Chapman.
(Chris Soto: My oh my....what a STEAL of a trade for the Yankees. It is quite unbelievable how low the Cincinnati Reds sold on Chapman because of his pending suspension for his domestic abuse case. Say what you want about how the Mets are operated.....but Reds fans have to be FURIOUS with ownership about how they have handled this off-season. First, they get no IMPACT talent and very little MLB talent in return for Todd Frazier deal; 2nd, rather than waiting for the litigation to be resolved and potential have the best trade piece on the market come July 31st.....the sell Chapman for no IMPACT talent and maybe not even MLB bench talent. What a head scratcher.....)

33 comments:

Thomas Brennan said...

I am "furious" with Mets management. Forget Reds fans.

If Mets signed Cespedes and traded cheap for Chapman, and cleared some salary space by trading Lagares, we'd have 1) a much more exciting team, 2) a lethal pen and 3) a team that would win 98 games, more or less, and put tons of fannies in the seats.

I often bring up, what would Yanks do? Answer: they do WHAT IT TAKES! Mets skimp. Try to get by. I asked my brother...he was enraged and disgusted. So, frankly, am I.

Zozo said...

The Mets at sleep at the wheel again.
1) chapman
2) Frazier
3) Donaldson
4) Cuban Players
5) Spending over the limit for international signing period
WAKE UP everyone else is doing it, why not us?

Christopher Soto said...

@Zozo

In reference to the international signing period. I've been hearing that the team does plan on blowing through the limit when the 2016-2017 signing period begins.

This is due to the fact that the entire league believes that an International Draft will be included in the next Collective Bargaining Agreement negotiation after the completion of the 2016 season.

Let's hope that Cuban superstar Lazarito doesn't get cleared to sign until June.

Mack Ade said...

The Chapman trade was an embarrassment for all Mets fans.

I will say this. The four Yankees prospects might represent more talent than the Mets could have come up with right now.

What ifthe Mets traded Nimmmo, Rosario, Flexen, and an A-level prospect. Would we be happy with that?

Reese Kaplan said...

Sometimes it's about the perception of wanting to win vs. the perception of doing nothing. While you don't necessarily want to mortgage the future completely, you're talking about an elite talent who is better than Familia for relatively little.

Zozo said...

Mack

I don't believe the prospects the Reds got were anywhere close to that package, but I would of given a package with Nimmo and Ajeel at the top for Chapman. You would have also gotten a first round comp pick when he left and might have Chapman for 2 years as well.
Sandy please open your eyes and don't fall asleep at the wheel once again.

Ernest Dove said...

Apparently STEAMER is projecting d'Arnaud to play about 100 games.......because why else would they project 13 homers? Lol.
A healthy Travis can have that by the all star break IMO.

Christopher Soto said...

@Ernest

They only have him for 306 ABs.....perhaps STEAMER600 which extropolated expected stats into 600 PA's (450 for catchers) would be a better barometer to show here.


I will update the post.

bob gregory said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Christopher Soto said...

@Ernest

Post is updated.

bob gregory said...

Yes, and we have learned that we should always believe what the front office says it will do when it comes to spending more money.

Remember the front office said more fan attendance would result in a higher payroll.

Before that, I believe the promise was the team would follow a money ball approach, but with big market money.

Hmmmm money ball means identifying under valued resources/talent.
Kind of like Chapman and Cespedes currently are.

bob gregory said...

Being a Met fan seems to commit oneself to repeated embarrassment.
Nothing new.

bob gregory said...

Yes. Of course. All he has to do is be healthy. Just like he was all of last year. Oh wait I mean 2014. No?
Maybe it was 2013?

Mike said...

@Thomas

"Mets skimp. Try to get by.."

Exactly my thoughts. I've been praying for Cespedes/Chapman. You're right, they'd win 98 games and be lethal in the postseason.

The Wilpons priority is to be competitive, not necessarily to win a World Series. They want fannies in the seats, and to keep payroll in check so they can reap the profits they need. I just think that's the reality.

The head-scratcher for me is that the Sandy-led front office, which shrewd at times, could be accomplishing more with this same limited budget. I love Bart, but there's a time to say goodbye and thanks. The "kid pitchers" can take the training wheels off now that they've been to a WS. The #5 SP spot could have been filled by Verrett/Montero/Gilmartin UNTIL Wheeler is back. Take out Colon's $7.25M, plus de Aza's $5.75M, plus the Cuddy $12M windfall and you have Cespedes in the middle of the lineup. Not to mention, Walker's $10M comes off the books in 2017, Grandy's $16M comes off in 2018 as does Cabrera's $10M, and Duda is replaced by Smith by then too. I wouldn't go past 5 yrs for Yo, but I think they could get him for that at about $22M per. At worst, I'm confident Yo would be tradeable at that price in 2 or 3 years if they really needed to free up $$ for SPs and Beccerra is ready for RF. And they'd most likely get good return in trading Yo at that point too. Very frustrating.

Thomas Brennan said...

Mike, I could not agree more. Cespedes is exciting. Chapman is exciting. We have exciting starters. It could be so. Much more. Think how exciting 1986 was, when the team was exciting thru and thru.

Mack Ade said...

Zozo -

2 prospects wouldn't have been enough to pull off the Chapman deal

Mack Ade said...

Mike -

I fully understand your post and your math is correct regarding the kind of money you could have had for a Cespedes deal... and I will take Cespedes' statement that he loved being a Met as an honest one... but all this only adds up to a one year deal, something the Cespedes camp would never have considered.

I don't see the Mets making any 7-8 year, $180-200mil deals in the next 5 years. They will make the kind of moves they did this off-season, which are decent minus a power hitter.

They also will have short lengths.

The hopes of the Mets brain trust is that they can lower their debt another $200mil over the next 5 years, a period in which they will refinance their note at least two more times.

Guys, this is the team you root for. Great young pitching... a bunch of 15-20 home run hitters... a decent pen... a weak division.

Let the season begin. :)

Herb G said...

The Dodgers and the Red Sox knew exactly the same facts that the Yankees know, and they both decided to pass on Chapman. Is it possible that Sandy feels that Chapman would be a negative influence on our young pitchers and a severe distraction in the clubhouse? We know that his focus has been on bringing in character guys, and it has paid off with a great clubhouse environment last year.

I am probably enough of a baseball whore to want to win, even if it means a scumbag in the clubhouse. But that doesn't mean it is the right thing to do.

Mike said...

@Mack

I understand my math was just geared toward Cespedes this year for the most part. Again, I think Cespedes could be had for a ~ 5-yr / $110MM deal. I could be wrong. Past the initial year though, the overall budget $ allocated toward him are the same as those saved this year from Colon, deAza, Cuddy, etc. So my point is he still fits. Then also in year 2 or 3, we have other $ coming off the books at 1B, 2B, SS as the pitchers start getting paid and Harvey is dealt. It could have worked, and I think there NEEDS to be a short term goal of winning a WS or two - not just competing and paying off the Wilpon debt. In the end, winning big now would help them with their debt even more. Pennywise, dollar foolish.

Mack Ade said...

Mike -

I'm not that sure how much the Mets are in charge of their purse strings anymore. The banks sort of call the shots when you're this much under water.

bob gregory said...

Keep in mind then:
Many Met fans will take the same approach as the organization.
Conserving their money by not paying for as many/ as expensive tickets, conserving the amount of their time they spend watching/listening to Met broadcasts, investing less money in Met merchandise until the pennant race begins (if it begins) each of the 5 years.

Less interest has proven to result in a dwindling fan base that can only be rekindled by winning. It rekindle though at a slower rate than it extinguishes.

bob gregory said...

SELL WILPON! SELL! SELL!
Or maybe the banks can forclose.....
How can a stadium be packed up and repossessed?

Zozo said...

I meant Nimmo and Akeel at top of an offer and whatever cheap pieces you needed. It would have been better than what the Yankees offered.

Thomas Brennan said...

2 Cubans, 2 passes. Too bad.

Thomas Brennan said...

2 Cubans, 2 passes. Too bad.

Metsiac said...

It's interesting to look at those projections. Before I give them credibility, though, I'd like to see LAST year's projections and how they compared with the actual results. Where can I find them?

Mack Ade said...

Metsiac -

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-zips-projections-new-york-mets/

jshapps77 said...

Why torture yourselves by living in this fictional world where the Mets will sign anyone to a 5+ year contract? The kind of impact bat everyone here seems to clamor for is always going to get that 5-8 year contract, so the Mets are not in play. The Wilpons own this team, and will continue to own it for the foreseeable future, and so, the Mets will not have a big-market payroll for the foreseeable future. I for one, don't care. Sure, it'd be nice, and so much easier, to be able to throw Dodger/Cub/Yankee dollars at a Cespedes/Heyward/Upton-type. But that's not reality. It's time to come to grips with this fact and start enjoying what we do have. We basically know the parameters in which the club will operate:
- Payroll < $130M
- No contracts longer than 4 years
- Offense is more important than defense
- OBP is more important than Batting Average
- SLG is more important than Strike Outs
- Bullpen parts are interchangeable
Let's focus on players within those parameters, rather than dream on things that will not happen, time and again. If the right players, on expiring deals, are available the the trade deadline, Sandy will make that deal again. A short term commitment (Cespedes, Uribe, Johnson, Clippard) for relatively little dollars, that they can move on from. This is the plan. Get on-board. It's makes everything Mets more enjoyable.

Also, I'm glad the Mets didn't trade for Chapman. A) There's a decent chance he'll be suspended/in jail for most of the one year you get him for. B) I don't want to be put in the position to root for a wife-beater.

bob gregory said...

Because some fans care more about the Mets than the Wilpons do.

Metsiac said...

Thanks, Mack. Looks like they were pretty much on target. Maybe there is something to them, after all.

jshapps77 said...

I understand you care more than the Wilpons. I'd like to think I do too. Bu that doesn't change who they are actually going to sing. Pretending they're going to go an hand out a 7-year $150M to anyone is an exercise in futility.

bob gregory said...

So, what about 5 or 6yrs??

jshapps77 said...

Nope

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