Mack’s Hot Stove Thoughts – 12-13-15 – Trading Matt Harvey, Signing Jayson Heyward, Balls In Play, Michael Cuddyer
Posted by Mack Ade at 8:00 AM
Gary Seagren asked me a question in one of the earlier comments this week on what I thought would be the value of selling off the services of SP Matt Harvey during next year’s off-season. I forgot to add a few things in my response.
You first have to remember that the 2016 free agent market is a slim one and there will never be a better time to sell off the remainder of time you would control Harvey.
2018 looks to be the last year Harvey will be a Met and his agent, Scott Boras, would shop him around in that off-season regardless what team he was on the previous season.
Next year’s free agent market offers a team two years of service of one of the top pitchers in the game.
The other thing I forgot to say was the decision on whether the Mets trade Harvey will weigh heavily on how well Zack Wheeler returns this season. Let’s not forget the fact that Wheeler came out of AAA projected as more or as talented as Harvey. A renewed Wheeler and a healed Rafael Montero could make the transition much more smooth.
As for Jayson Heyward signing with the Cubs, I’ll make a prediction here.
I think this will go down as one of the biggest flop deals in the history of baseball. Sure, it’s less money and less years as first speculated but it still is a tremendous amount of money for a .300 hitter that occasionally hits a few home runs.
I expect the Cubs to move his Golden Glove to CF because LF Kyle Schwarber needs as much help as he can get out there.
This deal will always be about the money ($23mil a year for eight years). It sure as hell isn’t the stat line which shows that Heyward has only produced the same OPS+ as Mets second baseman Neil Walker (Mets second baseman Neil Walker… has a nice ring to it) over the span of 2010-2015.
Don’t get me wrong… I would love Heyward on the Mets, but not at this cost and, in the long run, this could make the Michael Cuddyer deal look like a steal.
The Mets are not done yet in the off-season. They have done a good job with the infield and I don’t expect them giving anyone $23mil over the next eight years. If they did, I sure would want to see a better production than this guy has generated so far.
Johnny5Alive: Adam – Sandy Alderson doesn’t value defense. Am I the only one paying attention?
Eno Sarris: He’s certainly made moves like that, even if he did give Lagares an extension based on his D. But it could also have something to do with this team in today’s league. The Mets have to have the fewest balls in play in a time in which baseball is seeing the fewest balls in play.
Mack – Boy, did Eno just say a mouthful.
No one gives the Mets credit for all the balls that don’t get in play because their superior pitching staff strikes out so many batters. They ranked sixth in the National League in 2015 with 1,337 Ks, behind five teams (Cubs, Dodgers, Padres, Nats, Pirates).
Also, did you know that the Mets were ranked fourth in the NL in highest fielding percentage (.986) and only four NL teams committed less errors?
Sounds like a bad rap to me.
As for the Michael Cuddyer decision to retire -
I hope the Mets offer him the bench coach job. I understand his fellow players love him and he deserves the job just for this gesture.
As for the money now available, you all discussed this in an earlier post. There is nothing standing in the way of the Mets now offering one of the + outfielders a $20mil/yr package.
More to come…