TOP 50 METS PROSPECTS: #1 THRU 5 – Tom Brennan


TOP 50 METS PROSPECTS: #1 THRU 5 – Tom Brennan
A minor league system that in 2015 promoted several, traded many, had several prospects run into the Tommy John buzz saw, and saw a few guys go from prospect to suspect.  Leaving a diminished, but still solid, minor league system prospect-wise. 
(See website sidebar for list of my #6 - 50 dudes, covered in prior articles.)
Today, here’s my #1 thru #5:

1.          DILSON HERRERA: In one of the Mets’ best acquisitions in recent years, the Mets got Marlon Byrd cheap.  Byrd gave them a fine season and was traded late in 2013 for Dilson Herrera.  Quite a parlay. Herrera turns 22 next year, and has not done well in 2014 and 2015 in brief appearances with the Mets, understandable from one so young.  His last 2 minor league seasons, though? WOW. In 862 at bats in 2014 and 2015, he had 58 doubles, 7 triples, 24 homers, 121 RBIs, 167 runs scored, .327, 75 walks, and 36 of 52 in steals.  I speculate he will be the Mets starting 2B in 2016, and hopefully a future All Star. 

2.          DOMINIC SMITH: the 20 year old former first round pick by the Mets in 2013 turned a miserable 9 for 63 start to his season in St Lucie into an MVP season in the FSL. After those first 63 at bats, he had a surge of doubles and a .330 average the rest of the way.  Considered a superior defensive 1B, 2016 should show us the true Dominic Smith.  My guess?  Future All Star, especially if he starts hitting long balls like Michael Conforto. 

3.          GAVIN CECCHINI: thought of as a poor first round pick in 2012 by many fans, Gavin broke through offensively in 2015 and won AA rookie of the year in the Eastern League. In 109 games, he hit .317/.377/.442 and struck out just 55 times.  Only stole 3 of 7, so he is unlikely to light up the base paths. He got better in the late weeks of the season defensively but made a ton of errors prior to that, so improving that will clearly be an area of focus as he moves up to AAA in 2016.   The Mets’ infield situation is crowded, so we’ll see if he can push his way into a starting job with the Mets by 2017, or be a strong utility man. 

4.          DESMOND LINDSAY: probably too high to list the Mets’ 2015 2nd round selection, as the 18 year old only got 130+ plate appearances post-draft…but he did well, and got to play 14 games once he was promoted 2 levels late in the season to Brooklyn, where he held his own.  As Desmond’s tools are thought of very highly, I will take a flier on him and list him way up the list at # 4.  I’d love to see him challenged and put on the South Atlantic League roster to allow him to get a full season in.  We’ll see. 

5.          BRANDON NIMMO: he makes it hard to list him at # 5, with just a .354 slugging % in 2015.  A very weak number, IMO.  He gets a lot of hype, but so far the former 2012 first round pick has under-delivered more often than he has excited.  For this first rounder in 2011 right out of high school, it is time to show us a breakthrough season in 2016 like Cecchini did in 2015.  And a whole lot more power.  Or trade him.

That's my top 50, boys and girls.  Look forward to your feedback. LGM.

And let me please add that it has been a pleasure to write for this site, after Mack extended me the kind opportunity to share what I thought about all things Met.  I appreciate everyone who has written articles for this site, and those who have commented on those articles.  I believe Mets ownership listens, so it is a valuable service, as well as a fun pastime. I hope to be back writing here after a hiatus, will continue to post my comments, and stay connected to the "Mack Family".  Thank you all.


Zozo said...

Enjoy your Hiatus Tom, very good writing buddy.

Tom Brennan said...

@ Zozo: thanks so much. Have a great holiday season. and myay you find a bona fide slugger in your stocking.

Bob Sugar said...

Yes sir. You mention Herrera is in position to play 2b for us in 2016. If it was my team I would let that play out because like you I've seen the stats on Herrera and followed his progress since the trade. This guy is impressive and will be a good major league player. However If Zobrist signs then there is no place to put Herrera for two-three years. He has not played SS to my recall in the minors. It not be wise to trade Herrera if we sign Zobrist. I'm super high on him as well

Bob Sugar said...

Also interesting that your top 5 prospects for the Mets are position players. That's a big change from id say the last 5 years. Good to see

Eddie Corona said...

Nice job on the top 50... Didnt agree with them all but nothing was far fetch... hopefully you will keep updating the list as they go thru the system... and the next draft...

Tom Brennan said...

Bob, I have always espoused the Mets developing potent offense via their farm system. I hope we are on the way in that regard. Thrilled with Conforto, for one. Keep them coming.

Tom Brennan said...

@ Eddie Corona: appreciate that. Hey, I wake up some days and don't agree with my own picks, but then I have coffee and it all comes back into focus :) I have not discussed future writing plans with Mack, but certainly had fun doing this Top 50 and would be open to doing it again next fall...after we win the World Series, of course.

Buddy3 said...

Great job. Cant say that I agree with all of the rankings, but I really appreciate the time, effort and analytical skills that it takes to comply this type of list.

With that said, the Top 5 is right on except given the limited exposure that Lindsay had in SS ball, you can not put him that high. I hope he flies through Columbia this year, but you can not put him ahead of Becerra who really performed well at Savannah last year.

Mack Ade said...

To all -

Tom Brennan is just taking a self imposed hiatus rest from posting on the blog.

I expect him to be back in time for pitchers/catchers.

Tom Brennan said...

Hey Buddy3, thanks.

I really like Becerra, and you may be right that he is better than Lindsay. I think Lindsay is the better athlete, and we'll see this year who projects as the better guy. If deemed mature enough, get Lindsay in full season ball and challenge him. If he can't handle it, push him back to Brooklyn. I think he'll succeed in Carolina A ball.

Mack noted Zobrist likely to go to Nats if 4 years/ $80MM. Man, he is not worth that $$ at his age...let him go. Overpay for Cespedes if you overpay for anyone. He's exciting and gives them offensive swagger. Sign him, and stick Herrera at 292nd.

Mack's Mets © 2012