Good
morning.
There
was a discussion on Wednesday, as part of a Reese Kaplan post,
as to whether or not the Mets had the trading tools to pull off a trade for
someone with the talent of Colorado’s Cory Dickerson.
Frankly,
in my opinion, the Mets could use another season to replenish their top
prospect list so they could get back into the trade market without sacrificing
one of their top pitchers.
I
liked Sandy Alderson’s approach last year to obtain players like Yoenes
Cespedes, Kelly
Johnson and Juan
Uribe.
It only cost the Mets secondary pitching prospects that were never projected to
make the Mets rotation someday.
Right
now, the system is a little light; however, there are a few areas that have too
many potential major leaguers.
Take
shortstop. You now have Astrubal Cabrera signed
through 2017 and Ruben Tejada and
Wilmer
Flores still under team control. In
the next three years Gavin Cecchini,
Amed
Rosario, and Luis
Guillorme will all be ready for the
majors. Many moves have to be made here.
Next
comes second base. It seems that the (great) signing of Neil
Walker for one season gets the
promotion of Dilson Herrera to
be held up for another season. He also is now one of the top trading chips in
the system ready to play at the major league level.
There
really is only one other ‘major league ready’ prospect in the system and that
is SP Rafael Montero,
who really is more of an injured major leaguer. Some consider SS Matt
Reynolds ‘ready’. I don’t, nor do I
project him as a tradable ‘prospect.
There
actually is another ‘major league ready’ prospect on the Mets and that’s C Kevin
Plawecki, who is already the backup
catcher in Queens. You’re never going to position this guy as a possible
tradable prospect if you have him sitting in the dugout behind Travis
d’Arnaud, batting around .219. The Mets
need to sign a backup free agent catcher and send Plawecki back to AAA and let
him work on his stat line. I think you could even sell to him the potential
benefit of this move.
Past
that, the top Mets prospects are either a year away (RP Paul
Sewald, RP Akeel
Morris, 1B Dominic
Smith,
Rosario) or further on down the road (SP Chris Flexen,
Guillorme, OF Wuilmer Becerra,
OF Desmond
Lindsay). There are some are
considered secondary prospects (OF Brandon Nimmo,
OF Darrell
Cecilliani, 3B Eudor
Garcia), but their chances of
becoming a factor in the major leagues has either diminished or not developed.
Look,
you don’t need much to build a playoff team. All you have to do is use all four
avenues being awarded to you to fill in the holes in your 25-man squad. You
need to draft a A++ prospect with your number one draft pick (Conforto) and not
try and impress the rest of baseball by finding a dark horse here (fill in name
yourself here)… then, sign and develop one great international signee per
season (Familia), pull off one killer trade (Syndergaard) and sign a decent
free agent every off season (Walker).
Two
of these kind of players are already set up for the 2017 season… draft pick 1B
Smith and international 2B Rosario. You’re halfway home from continuing the
growth of your team in the right direction.
Tommy
asks –
Mack, I read that the following,
that Baseball Futures has the Mets World Series winning odds at 14:1, behind 3
other teams and tied with KC. With our
pitching, shouldn't Mets fans expect the Mets to be the current #1 favorite,
not tied for 3rd? Who can they acquire
to get us to #1 as of now? Would
re-signing Cespedes get the Mets there?
Appreciate your reader's thoughts. Thanks.
Mack – Thanks Tom
for the question. Look forward to your return as a writer.
I think any odds
being given out before all major free agents are signed is simply stupid.
Believe me, there odds would go down for any team that signs Cespedes.
No one more than
you knows how hard it is to keep up with new reasons to write baseball stories
in the off-season. Placing odds on baseball teams is fun to read but, as the
2015 Mets proved, means nothing in the long run.
And lastly...
Fangraphs prosposed the following trade -
Matt Harvey’s Contract — 3 yr / $26.0 M
Year | Age | WAR | $/WAR | Est. Value | Actual Contract |
2016 | 27 | 4.6 | $8.0 M | $36.8 M | $5.0 M |
2017 | 28 | 4.6 | $8.4 M | $38.6 M | $8.0 M |
2018 | 29 | 4.6 | $8.8 M | $40.6 M | $13.0 M |
Totals | 13.8 | $116.0 M | $26.0 M |
Assumptions
Value: $8M/WAR with 5.0% inflationAging Curve: +0.25 WAR/yr (18-27), 0 WAR/yr (28-30),-0.5 WAR/yr (31-37),-0.75 WAR/yr (> 37)
Joc Pederson’s Contract — 5 yr / $31.0 M
Year | Age | WAR | $/WAR | Est. Value | Actual Contract |
2016 | 24 | 3.3 | $8.0 M | $26.4 M | $0.5 M |
2017 | 25 | 3.5 | $8.4 M | $29.8 M | $0.5 M |
2018 | 26 | 3.8 | $8.8 M | $33.5 M | $6.0 M |
2019 | 27 | 4.0 | $9.3 M | $37.5 M | $10.0 M |
2020 | 28 | 4.0 | $9.7 M | $39.4 M | $14.0 M |
Totals | 18.8 | $166.6 M | $31.0 M |
Assumptions
Value: $8M/WAR with 5.0% inflationAging Curve: +0.25 WAR/yr (18-27), 0 WAR/yr (28-30),-0.5 WAR/yr (31-37),-0.75 WAR/yr (> 37)
Thoughts?
And lastly... Gary asked -
Hi Mack, Here's a thought going forward. Would it not be better to not offer team friendly contracts to our Fab five knowing the fragility of pitchers arms/shoulders and the fact that their ALL power pitchers and you never how they'll adapt when they start to lose velocity and instead we get their best years and when their 2 years away from FA trade them for a Shelby Miller like haul. The other question is your thoughts on Wuilmer Becerra. Thanks, Gary Seagren
Mack - Thanks for the question Gary.
I think it's a wonderful idea and, hopefully, they are doing it as we read.
Trust me, Scott Boras would have nothing to do with this process for his client, Matt Harvey, but, you never know, one or twoof the others might. Thor already is quoted saying he wants to be a Met for life. Let's make him one.
I would also do everything I could to sign deGrom who looks like the most durable (re-built) ar.
As for Becerra, I like everything about him. He hit .290 last year as a 20-year for a full season team... what's not to like?
He did show some power (Savannah: 449-AB, 9-HR, 63-RBI) as well as 16 stoln bases, but he does need to be a little more selective at what he swings at (96-K).
He'll open up for St. Lucie come spring. There's no rush here, but, if things do well, he'll finish the season in Binghamton as a 21-year old.
I see no down side here. Could turn out to be the steal of the trade.
And lastly... Gary asked -
Mack - Thanks for the question Gary.
I think it's a wonderful idea and, hopefully, they are doing it as we read.
Trust me, Scott Boras would have nothing to do with this process for his client, Matt Harvey, but, you never know, one or twoof the others might. Thor already is quoted saying he wants to be a Met for life. Let's make him one.
I would also do everything I could to sign deGrom who looks like the most durable (re-built) ar.
As for Becerra, I like everything about him. He hit .290 last year as a 20-year for a full season team... what's not to like?
He did show some power (Savannah: 449-AB, 9-HR, 63-RBI) as well as 16 stoln bases, but he does need to be a little more selective at what he swings at (96-K).
He'll open up for St. Lucie come spring. There's no rush here, but, if things do well, he'll finish the season in Binghamton as a 21-year old.
I see no down side here. Could turn out to be the steal of the trade.
11 comments:
Mack
I agree with you that it appears that the minor league talent at this time is limited and the Mets need a season to replenish it.
It is this reason I do not understand the thought of entering the season with less than the best offense possible to pair with the Mets pitching.
If a season is needed to replenish the farm system, then that would make the mid-season trading to finish the team by acquiring needed pieces much less likely to occur.
I slightly disagree. I think Fulmer was starting to emerge as a potential front of the rotation starter(maybe mid to back end for the Mets). All the others were secondary prospects. I didn't like them giving up Fulmer but they did need to do their best to make a run.
You can't last long as a contender by trading prospects for rentals. The Mets needed to but now they need to take advantage of their success by bring in major talent. Players see the Mets as an attractive team to play for. The Mets are quickly closing that window.
Harvey for Pederson? No way unless Seager is added.
I am happy with the minor league top prospects that remain, except Nimmo, who faces a make or break year. A.400+ slug % would be a good place to start.
Pitching took a hit, but I guess that happens when you promote or trade the equivalent of a whole staff.
Re-sign Cespedes and move to the head of the major league odds board, in my opinion.
I have been accused of having a narrow field of vision! Except, I was wearing my reading glasses the past two years looking afar off at Reynolds and Muno. Suppose that is why they looked so good.
Bob -
Then I still ask for the patience to wait out the Hot Stove season and see what the final result is.
I will gladly jump on the Gregory train if nothing more is done.
Richard -
I agree in the long term with you about trading prospects year after year, but there was almost a desperate need (for the fans at least) to get this team to the playoffs.
All these moves, especially the Fulmer one, got us not only there, but also to the World Series.
I would do it again in a heartbeat.
As for Fulmer, I always liked his talent but he's fragile. I expect that to rear its ugly head again during his career.
Mack agree that the Mets needed to make those trades last year. Now they need to capitalize on that momentum and they are not. At least it doesn't seem like it but there is still time left.
Richard -
The Cespedes move last year was last minute.
I'm going to wait out the process and see what the Mets come up with here.
My guess is there still is an outside chance that the Mets could put together a 5-year deal for his services.
I would do a Cespedes deal. If something is not working out after a year or two, trade him. It happens.
I don't get the dig at Eudor Garcia. First year of full season ball and he nearly hits .300 with power at Grayson. It is all about perspective but I don't see how his year was any worse that Bucerra except for the 16 stolen bases.
@ Buddy: Eudor matched Becerra virtually at bat to at bat all season. May they have a huge 2016.
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