12/20/15

Mack’s Morning Report – 12-20-15 – Cory Dickerson, Mets Prospects, Playoff Odds, Harvey for Pederson, Wuilmer Beccera

11 comments

Good morning.


There was a discussion on Wednesday, as part of a Reese Kaplan post, as to whether or not the Mets had the trading tools to pull off a trade for someone with the talent of Colorado’s Cory Dickerson.

Frankly, in my opinion, the Mets could use another season to replenish their top prospect list so they could get back into the trade market without sacrificing one of their top pitchers.

I liked Sandy Alderson’s approach last year to obtain players like Yoenes Cespedes, Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe. It only cost the Mets secondary pitching prospects that were never projected to make the Mets rotation someday.

Right now, the system is a little light; however, there are a few areas that have too many potential major leaguers.

Take shortstop. You now have Astrubal Cabrera signed through 2017 and Ruben Tejada and Wilmer Flores still under team control. In the next three years Gavin Cecchini, Amed Rosario, and Luis Guillorme will all be ready for the majors. Many moves have to be made here.

Next comes second base. It seems that the (great) signing of Neil Walker for one season gets the promotion of Dilson Herrera to be held up for another season. He also is now one of the top trading chips in the system ready to play at the major league level.

There really is only one other ‘major league ready’ prospect in the system and that is SP Rafael Montero, who really is more of an injured major leaguer. Some consider SS Matt Reynolds ‘ready’. I don’t, nor do I project him as a tradable ‘prospect.

There actually is another ‘major league ready’ prospect on the Mets and that’s C Kevin Plawecki, who is already the backup catcher in Queens. You’re never going to position this guy as a possible tradable prospect if you have him sitting in the dugout behind Travis d’Arnaud, batting around .219. The Mets need to sign a backup free agent catcher and send Plawecki back to AAA and let him work on his stat line. I think you could even sell to him the potential benefit of this move.

Past that, the top Mets prospects are either a year away (RP Paul Sewald, RP Akeel Morris, 1B Dominic Smith, Rosario) or further on down the road (SP Chris Flexen, Guillorme, OF Wuilmer Becerra, OF Desmond Lindsay). There are some are considered secondary prospects (OF Brandon Nimmo, OF Darrell Cecilliani, 3B Eudor Garcia), but their chances of becoming a factor in the major leagues has either diminished or not developed.

Look, you don’t need much to build a playoff team. All you have to do is use all four avenues being awarded to you to fill in the holes in your 25-man squad. You need to draft a A++ prospect with your number one draft pick (Conforto) and not try and impress the rest of baseball by finding a dark horse here (fill in name yourself here)… then, sign and develop one great international signee per season (Familia), pull off one killer trade (Syndergaard) and sign a decent free agent every off season (Walker).

Two of these kind of players are already set up for the 2017 season… draft pick 1B Smith and international 2B Rosario. You’re halfway home from continuing the growth of your team in the right direction.



Tommy asks –

Mack, I read that the following, that Baseball Futures has the Mets World Series winning odds at 14:1, behind 3 other teams and tied with KC.  With our pitching, shouldn't Mets fans expect the Mets to be the current #1 favorite, not tied for 3rd?  Who can they acquire to get us to #1 as of now?  Would re-signing Cespedes get the Mets there?  Appreciate your reader's thoughts. Thanks.

Mack – Thanks Tom for the question. Look forward to your return as a writer.

I think any odds being given out before all major free agents are signed is simply stupid. Believe me, there odds would go down for any team that signs Cespedes.


No one more than you knows how hard it is to keep up with new reasons to write baseball stories in the off-season. Placing odds on baseball teams is fun to read but, as the 2015 Mets proved, means nothing in the long run.



And lastly...

Fangraphs prosposed the following trade - 


Matt Harvey’s Contract — 3 yr / $26.0 M
YearAgeWAR$/WAREst. ValueActual Contract
2016274.6$8.0 M$36.8 M$5.0 M
2017284.6$8.4 M$38.6 M$8.0 M
2018294.6$8.8 M$40.6 M$13.0 M
Totals13.8$116.0 M$26.0 M
Assumptions
Value: $8M/WAR with 5.0% inflation
Aging Curve: +0.25 WAR/yr (18-27), 0 WAR/yr (28-30),-0.5 WAR/yr (31-37),-0.75 WAR/yr (> 37)

Joc Pederson’s Contract — 5 yr / $31.0 M
YearAgeWAR$/WAREst. ValueActual Contract
2016243.3$8.0 M$26.4 M$0.5 M
2017253.5$8.4 M$29.8 M$0.5 M
2018263.8$8.8 M$33.5 M$6.0 M
2019274.0$9.3 M$37.5 M$10.0 M
2020284.0$9.7 M$39.4 M$14.0 M
Totals18.8$166.6 M$31.0 M
Assumptions
Value: $8M/WAR with 5.0% inflation
Aging Curve: +0.25 WAR/yr (18-27), 0 WAR/yr (28-30),-0.5 WAR/yr (31-37),-0.75 WAR/yr (> 37)


Thoughts?


And lastly... Gary asked -  

Hi Mack, Here's a thought going forward. Would it not be better to not offer team friendly contracts to our Fab five knowing the fragility of pitchers arms/shoulders and the fact that their ALL power pitchers and you never how they'll adapt when they start to lose velocity and instead we get their best years and when their 2 years away from FA trade them for a Shelby Miller like haul. The other question is your thoughts on Wuilmer Becerra. Thanks, Gary Seagren

Mack - Thanks for the question Gary.

I think it's a wonderful idea and, hopefully, they are doing it as we read.

Trust me, Scott Boras would have nothing to do with this process for his client, Matt Harvey, but, you never know, one or twoof the others might. Thor already is quoted saying he wants to be a Met for life. Let's make him one.

I would also do everything I could to sign deGrom who looks like the most durable (re-built) ar.

As for Becerra, I like everything about him. He hit .290 last year as a 20-year for a full season team... what's not to like?

He did show some power (Savannah: 449-AB, 9-HR, 63-RBI) as well as 16 stoln bases, but he does need to be a little more selective at what he swings at (96-K).

He'll open up for St. Lucie come spring. There's no rush here, but, if things do well, he'll finish the season in Binghamton as a 21-year old.

I see no down side here. Could turn out to be the steal of the trade. 



11 comments:

bob gregory said...

Mack
I agree with you that it appears that the minor league talent at this time is limited and the Mets need a season to replenish it.

It is this reason I do not understand the thought of entering the season with less than the best offense possible to pair with the Mets pitching.

If a season is needed to replenish the farm system, then that would make the mid-season trading to finish the team by acquiring needed pieces much less likely to occur.

Richard Jones said...

I slightly disagree. I think Fulmer was starting to emerge as a potential front of the rotation starter(maybe mid to back end for the Mets). All the others were secondary prospects. I didn't like them giving up Fulmer but they did need to do their best to make a run.
You can't last long as a contender by trading prospects for rentals. The Mets needed to but now they need to take advantage of their success by bring in major talent. Players see the Mets as an attractive team to play for. The Mets are quickly closing that window.

Gary Seagren said...

Harvey for Pederson? No way unless Seager is added.

Thomas Brennan said...

I am happy with the minor league top prospects that remain, except Nimmo, who faces a make or break year. A.400+ slug % would be a good place to start.

Pitching took a hit, but I guess that happens when you promote or trade the equivalent of a whole staff.

Re-sign Cespedes and move to the head of the major league odds board, in my opinion.

I have been accused of having a narrow field of vision! Except, I was wearing my reading glasses the past two years looking afar off at Reynolds and Muno. Suppose that is why they looked so good.

Mack Ade said...

Bob -

Then I still ask for the patience to wait out the Hot Stove season and see what the final result is.

I will gladly jump on the Gregory train if nothing more is done.

Mack Ade said...

Richard -

I agree in the long term with you about trading prospects year after year, but there was almost a desperate need (for the fans at least) to get this team to the playoffs.

All these moves, especially the Fulmer one, got us not only there, but also to the World Series.

I would do it again in a heartbeat.

As for Fulmer, I always liked his talent but he's fragile. I expect that to rear its ugly head again during his career.

Richard Jones said...

Mack agree that the Mets needed to make those trades last year. Now they need to capitalize on that momentum and they are not. At least it doesn't seem like it but there is still time left.

Mack Ade said...

Richard -

The Cespedes move last year was last minute.

I'm going to wait out the process and see what the Mets come up with here.

My guess is there still is an outside chance that the Mets could put together a 5-year deal for his services.

Thomas Brennan said...

I would do a Cespedes deal. If something is not working out after a year or two, trade him. It happens.

Buddy3 said...

I don't get the dig at Eudor Garcia. First year of full season ball and he nearly hits .300 with power at Grayson. It is all about perspective but I don't see how his year was any worse that Bucerra except for the 16 stolen bases.

Thomas Brennan said...

@ Buddy: Eudor matched Becerra virtually at bat to at bat all season. May they have a huge 2016.

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