The Morning Report 12.30.2015 | Hall of Fame Tracker Says Mike Piazza Is In So Far, 2016 STEAMER Projections for SPs


Ryan Thibs BBHOF Tracker

(Chris Soto: The link above goes to a Google Document that Mr. Thibs puts together on an annual basis that tracks every MLB Hall of Fame ballot that is made public and how the eligible players are doing so far. It is an excellent tracking source and I would recommend everyone to bookmark it until the final results are released on January 6th. With 121 of the estimated 450 Hall of Fame Ballots made public so far here are the players with enough votes to make it into the Hall of Fame so far. Below them are guys who still have a chance depending on the outcome of the non-public votes.)

Ken Griffey Jr. | 100%
Mike Piazza      | 90.1%
Jeff Bagwell     | 85.1%
Tim Raines       | 80.2%

Trevor Hoffman | 63.6%
Curt Schilling    | 61.2%
Mike Mussina    | 57.0%
Barry Bonds      | 50.4%
Roger Clemens  | 49.6%
Edgar Martinez  | 49.6%
Alan Trammell   | 47.9%

2016 STEAMER600 Starting Pitching Projections Fangraphs

SP-1 Matt Harvey          | 13-10, 3.08 ERA, 9.2 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 1.09 WHIP, 4.5 WAR
SP-2 Jacob deGrom        | 13-10, 3.16 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 1.13 WHIP, 4.2 WAR 
SP-3 Noah Syndergaard  | 13-11, 3.13 ERA, 9.9 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 1.11 WHIP, 4.6 WAR
SP-4 Steven Matz          | 12-12, 3.59 ERA, 8.8 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 1.24 WHIP, 3.0 WAR
SP-5 Bartolo Colon       | 7-7, 3.79 ERA, 6.4 K/9, 1.2 BB/9, 1.19 WHIP, 1.3 WAR [16 starts]
SP-5 Zack Wheeler       | 4-4, 3.69 ERA, 8.8 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 1.27 WHIP, 1.0 WAR [11 starts]

(Chris Soto: Again.....It's important to note that STEAMER is generally a conservative projection system. The above stat lines though are superb! 18.6 additional wins over replacement level SPs from your rotation is an unbelievable projection. Especially when you consider that the team that went to the World Series amassed an actual rate of +18.5 WAR from the SP's. It's also interesting to see that STEAMER believes that it is actually Noah Syndergaard who will be the team's most valuable SP in 2016, not Harvey or deGrom.)

HOT STOVE REPORT (courtesy of mlbtraderumor.com)
  • The Nationals signed SS Stephen Drew to a 1 yr contract worth $3M with 1.25M in incentives. He will serve as the back-up Middle Infielder to Danny Espinosa at SS and Daniel Murphy at 2B. 
  • The Mets lost another minor league free agent yesterday as OF Eric Young Jr. signed a minor league contract with the Milwaukee Brewers. 


Anonymous said...

is it just me, or is anyone else noticing,Washington is the only team that will deal with Boras?

Ernest Dove said...

All I care about is that the Nationals are not signing any stud players either so far this offsesson.
Biased or not I still see Mets as the division favorites right now based on both teams 25man rosters.

Tom Brennan said...

First Kirk, now EY JR...Brewers are stealing our best( :) ) OF talent.

C'mon, Steamer, low on Mets offense but high on their pitcher's ERAs at the same time? Balderdash.

Yanks got Chapman, we got Bupkus.

Mack Ade said...

Ernest -

You are correct. and that is what's important going into the season.

The 'new' Mets, with projected arbitration raises comes in salary wise just around the same as the 2015 Mets minus their late season additions.

It looks like this is the new Mets template.

Ernest Dove said...

We can all think of different (sexier) names to have filled CF, 2B and SS but regardless the bottom line is the mets signed 3 veterans who are NOT in their mid thirties and should hopefully give them a better chance to win a 2016 world series than wilmer and Dilson as starters.
De Aza is the question mark becauee he's signed to play a position he hasn't played so thats a little different but maybe Lagares shows progress and not further regression and it won't matter.

Herb G said...

Hard to figure those Steamer projections. They predict 62 wins from our starters, when last year we got 64 with all those 1 and 2 run heartbreaking losses in the first half? And not a single ERA below 3.00. That's not gonna happen. Last year we had 3 starters with sub 3.00 ERAs. Maybe they are thinking that with the offensive juggernaut Sandy has assembled this winter (lol) our starters will relax.

Looks like Piazza will finally get the reward he has long deserved - enshrinement. Hooray for Mikey. Trevor Hoffman should be right up there too. Too many sportswriters demean the relief pitcher as not worthy. Looks like memories of PEDs are fading as Barry and Roger climb. Will they make it before time runs out?

Mack Ade said...

Herb -

Never follow STEAMER projections or any other of the projections like this.

Until they can tell me who will be in the other team's lineup, whether or not that batter has a groin pull, and whether it is raining out and the ball is tough for the pitcher to grip, they mean nothing to me.

Christopher Soto said...

".......Again.....It's important to note that STEAMER is generally a conservative projection system......."

I will post this here a 3rd time....

Ernest Dove said...

STEAMER is a fun yearly guessing game to play.............
I project .270 21homers for TDA
I project .240 26homers for duda
I project .275 19homers for Conforto

See, its fun ;)

Stephen Guilbert said...

That combines to 18.6 WAR from starting pitching alone. That projection would have put us second in baseball last year trailing only the Cubs by SP WAR and it does look like it fails to account for about 20 starts (has Thor only pitching 29 starts and Wheeler/Colon combining for 27). Needless to say, this is extremely extremely encouraging data from a projection formula that's typically conservative. Anything above 15 is top ten in baseball and the Mets have a shot to get that from their top three starters alone.

Tom Brennan said...

The fans will be Steamers once Cespedes signs elsewhere.

Mack Ade said...

Stephen -

As for the STEAMER projections, I share with you the optimism on both the HRs per batter and pitcher WAR estimated, but, as you know, I don't like to project things. I'd rather write about what has already happened.

Stephen Guilbert said...

Absolutely, Mack.

I was just pointing out that a conservative projection formula currently has us at the top of the MLB and about half a starter's worth short of a full season. If you consider this a point in a bell curve and injuries/ineffectiveness leading to the left and health, improvement to the right, you get a range of expected outcomes for next year's team. If you are optimistic, you look at this rotation as a potentially historically dominant unit and that's fun to think about.

I'll let you handle the post mortems :)

Tom Brennan said...

Stephen, I just want my team to finish 2 standard deviations above the mean. I used to know what I am saying, now I have no idea :).

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